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Pitching Value Meter: Killer 'Wrighty'

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change, so if you see something that isn't correct, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this was written and feel free to politely bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week Aug. 11-17

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Felix Hernandez - TOR, at DET
Note: Even with tougher matchups, I have to slot him over Lester
2. Jon Lester - at KC, at ATL
Note: In the midst of his best season ever, he has the good fortune of getting traded to the league's best team
3. David Price - SEA
4. Yu Darvish - TB
5. Chris Sale - at SF
Note: A second team finally got more than 3 ER off of him on Aug. 1; Bumgarner has nine such outings
6. Corey Kluber - BAL
Note: Since start of 2013 - 3.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 4.6 K:BB ratio in 313 IP
7. Max Scherzer - PIT
8. Garrett Richards - at TEX
9. Sonny Gray - at KC, at ATL
Note: 8.4 K/9 since June 1 (7.8 for the season)
10. Collin McHugh - MIN, at BOS
Note: 3.94 ERA in his last five, but also 34 Ks and just 8 BBs in 29.7 IP
11. Yordano Ventura - OAK, at MIN
12. Justin Verlander - at PIT, SEA
Note: 3.14 ERA in his last four with a 1.11 WHIP in 28.7 IP
13. Hisashi Iwakuma - TOR
14. Jose Quintana - TOR
15. Dallas Keuchel - at BOS
Note: Fully back from wrist with 1.61 ERA in last four with 21 Ks and 3.5 K:BB ratio in 28 IP
16. Marcus Stroman - at CWS
17. Jeff Samardzija - at KC
Note: Ks light with OAK, but you can't knock 3.09 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 6.0 K:BB in 43.7 IP
18. Alex Cobb - NYY
19. Scott Kazmir - at KC
20. James Shields - OAK
Note: Every time you wanna count him out, he goes on a 1.99 ERA in 40.7 IP roll
21. Chris Archer - at TEX
22. Jake Odorizzi - at TEX
23. Rick Porcello - at PIT, SEA
Note: K rate surging with a 24 percent rate in his last four (26 K, 2 BB in 29 IP; 1.86 ERA as well)
24. Phil Hughes - KC
Note: 5.57 ERA in his last nine, but also an 8.2 K:BB ratio; something doesn't add up
25. Brandon McCarthy - at TB
Note: As a Yankee threw 5 IP last Saturday - 2.29 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 5.8 K:BB ratio in 35.3 IP
26. Shane Greene - at BAL
Note: I buy this more than Chase Whitley because Greene's stuff is legit
27. Hiroki Kuroda - at TB
28. Michael Pineda - at BAL
29. Matt Shoemaker - PHI
30. Drew Smyly - at TEX, NYY
Note: 5.54 ERA in his last seven starts, but 3.7 K:BB ratio offers hope
31. Anibal Sanchez - PIT
Note: Left last start with a pec strain, stay tuned for news on if he even makes this start
32. J.A. Happ - at SEA
Note: Dominant in three of his last four and now gets MLB's 29th-lowest OPS vs. LHP (.639)
33. R.A Dickey - at SEA
34. Danny Duffy - at MIN
35. Jason Hammel - at ATL
Note: He's just not this bad. He might need to call Chris Bosio for a chat, but he's not this bad
36. Jeremy Hellickson - at TEX, NYY
37. Drew Hutchison - at SEA, at CWS
Note: He's starting to veer from that home/road split, instead just suffering the inconsistency of youngsters
38. Chris Capuano - at BAL, at TB
39. Chris Young - TOR, at DET
Note: I'm reluctantly starting to buy a bit because the component numbers have sharply improved
40. Jason Vargas - OAK
41. Brett Oberholtzer - MIN
Note: First seven starts - 5.68 ERA, last nine - 3.02 ERA
42. Chris Tillman - at CLE
43. Trevor Bauer - ARI
44. Kevin Gausman - at CLE
45. James Paxton - at DET
Note: Keep an eye on Saturday's start
46. Wei-Yin Chen - NYY
47. Miguel Gonzalez - NYY
Note: 2.43 ERA in his last six starts (40.7 IP)
48. Hector Santiago - at TEX
49. Mark Buehrle - at CWS
Note: 6.16 ERA in his last six starts, but can't ignore the 2.50 from his first 17
50. Scott Feldman - at BOS
Note: Spot-starting a hot hand (unless he's bombed on Saturday) against a terrible opponent

SIT


51. Jered Weaver - at TEX
Note: Can't be trusted on the road
52. C.J. Wilson - PHI
Note: Has looked horrible since returning from the DL
53. Rubby de la Rosa - HOU
54. John Danks - TOR
55. Jeremy Guthrie - OAK, at MIN
Note: I'd maybe spot him at MIN, but I don't really want to commit to both starts
56. Danny Salazar - BAL
Note: Just when you start to trust him ...
57. Joe Kelly - at CIN, HOU
58. Bud Norris - NYY, at CLE
59. Colby Lewis - TB, LAA
60. Ubaldo Jimenez - at CLE
61. Kyle Gibson - at HOU
62. Brad Peacock - MIN, at BOS
63. Nick Tepesch - TB, LAA
64. Kevin Correia - at HOU, KC
65. Trevor May - KC
Note: Keep an eye on his MLB debut on Saturday
66. Nick Martinez - LAA
67. Allen Webster - HOU
68. Yohan Pino - at HOU
69. Hector Noesi -TOR
70. Carlos Carrasco - BAL
71. T.J. House - ARI
72. Brandon Workman - at CIN
73. Scott Carroll - at SF
74. Miles Mikolas - TB
75. Clay Buchholz - HOU
Note: Heh, this freakin' guy

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Adam Wainwright - at MIA, SD
Note: Both teams are bottom five in OPS vs. RHP since May 1
2. Clayton Kershaw - MIL
Note: I love Teheran, but Kershaw could out-do him in one start
3. Julio Teheran - LAD, OAK
4. Cole Hamels - at SF
5. Madison Bumgarner - PHI
6. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at ATL, MIL
Note: Since DET popped him for 7 ER - 1.91 ERA, 0.85 WHIP in 33 IP
7. Jake Arrieta - MIL, at NYM
Note: Can't really hold a disaster in Coors against him
8. Zack Greinke - at ATL
9. Jordan Zimmermann - at NYM
Note: Since June 1 - 2.29 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 76 Ks in 78.7 IP
10. Stephen Strasburg - at NYM
Note: Had a 2.70 ERA in seven starts run the last time he gave up 7 ER
11. Homer Bailey - BOS
12. Lance Lynn - SD
Note: Last 15 starts - 2.42 ERA in 93 IP
13. John Lackey - SD
14. Tyson Ross - at STL
Note: Has not allowed more than 2 ER in any of his last nine (1.62 ERA in 61 IP)
15. Johnny Cueto - at COL
Note: Playing it cautiously with the overall ranking, but obviously still starting him in all leagues
16. Zack Wheeler - CHC
17. Ian Kennedy - COL
Note: Pushed his ERA up to 4.01 with a rough June, but since - 2.30 ERA in 43 IP (7 GS)
18. Jacob deGrom - WAS, CHC
19. Doug Fister - at NYM, PIT
Note: Solid 7.0 K/9 in his last four starts
20. Mat Latos - BOS, at COL
21. Jesse Hahn - COL, at STL
Note: Bumping up near IP cap, will they shorten some of his outings to maybe milk another 1-2 out of him?
22. Wily Peralta - at CHC, at LAD
23. Kyle Hendricks - MIL, at NYM
Note: Emerged from Coors with an 8 IP/2 ER outing to his name
24. Yovani Gallardo - at CHC, at LAD
25. Kyle Lohse - at CHC
Note: Bounced back nicely from disaster at STL (6 IP/1 ER vs. LAD)
26. Wade Miley - at MIA
27. Tanner Roark - PIT
Note: First really rough outing since May 3 (2.20 ERA in 15 starts between the two)
28. Alex Wood - OAK
29. Ervin Santana - LAD
Note: Should probably chisel another 0.20 or so off of that composite ERA by season's end
30. Gio Gonzalez - PIT
Note: A tough read of late, but it's not so dire that I'm avoiding him at all costs
31. Nathan Eovaldi - STL
Note: Hey, good Eovaldi is back (0.60 ERA in 15 IP vs. CIN in back-to-back outings)
32. Bartolo Colon - WAS
33. Tim Hudson - PHI
34. Chase Anderson - at MIA
Note: 2.34 ERA in his last six starts with 35 Ks in 34.7 IP
35. Jimmy Nelson - at LAD
Note: Still just the one bad start in his first five as an MLBer (2.80 ERA in the other four)
36. Charlie Morton - at WAS
37. Aaron Harang - LAD
38. Tsuyoshi Wada - MIL
Note: Been hit just once in five starts (vs. SD of all teams); 6 Ks in each of last three
39. Jon Niese - at PHI, CHC
Note: These two teams should help him break his funk (6.04 ERA in last five starts)
40. Jeff Locke - DET, at WAS
41. Tom Koehler - STL, ARI
Note: He's been reliable of late with a 3.19 ERA in his last five starts
42. Dillon Gee - WAS
43. Ryan Vogelsong - CWS
44. Vance Worley - at DET
Note: 0.96 ERA in his last four starts, all against the NL West (sans COL)
45. Mike Fiers - at CHC
Note: Dominated Triple-A with a 2.55 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 7.6 K:BB ratio in 102.3 IP; can it translate again?
46. Tim Lincecum - PHI
47. Jake Peavy - CWS
48. Francisco Liriano - at DET
Note: 1.44 ERA in last four starts with 29 Ks and 4.1 K:BB ratio in 25 IP
49. Roberto Hernandez - at ATL
50. Shelby Miller - at MIA, SD
Note: 2.41 ERA in last three, all vs. bad teams (CHC, SD, BOS); don't buy long-term, but two more duds here

CONSIDER


51. Mike Leake - at COL
Note: Neither of these Reds is above being reserved for a trip to Coors; let your standings dictate decision
52. Alfredo Simon - at COL
53. Edinson Volquez - DET, at WAS
Note: Both matchups are tough, but has a 2.22 ERA in his last eight starts
54. Mike Minor - LAD, OAK
55. David Buchanan - NYM, at SF
Note: 3.43 ERA in his last seven starts (6.08 in his first four)
56. Jordan Lyles - at SD, CIN
Note: How much do you need pitching? All three Rockies are likely available on your waiver wire
57. Yohan Flande - at SD, CIN
58. Tyler Matzek - at SD

SIT


59. A.J. Burnett - at LAA
60. Jarred Cosart - STL, ARI
61. Trevor Cahill - at MIA
62. Vidal Nuno - at CLE
63. Dan Haren - at ATL, MIL
Note: Love Haren, but he can't be trusted (5.62 ERA, 2.1 HR/9 in his last 15 starts)
64. Justin Masterson - at MIA
Note: Wait, you're not even going to get righties out now?
65. Travis Wood - at NYM
66. Jorge de la Rosa - CIN
67. Franklin Morales - CIN
68. Josh Collmenter - at CLE, at MIA
69. Odrisamer Despaigne - COL, at STL
70. Brad Hand - ARI
71. Eric Stults - at STL
72. Edwin Jackson - MIL
73. Kyle Kendrick - at SF
74. Brad Penny - ARI
75. Sean O'Sullivan - at LAA

MLB TOP 100

1. Felix Hernandez - TOR, at DET
Note: Even with tougher matchups, I have to slot him over Lester
2. Adam Wainwright - at MIA, SD
Note: Both teams are bottom five in OPS vs. RHP since May 1
3. Clayton Kershaw - MIL
Note: I love Teheran, but Kershaw could out-do him in one start
4. Julio Teheran - LAD, OAK
5. Jon Lester - at KC, at ATL
Note: In the midst of his best season ever, he has the good fortune of getting traded to the league's best team
6. David Price - SEA
7. Yu Darvish - TB
8. Chris Sale - at SF
Note: A second team finally got more than 3 ER off of him on Aug. 1; Bumgarner has nine such outings
9. Corey Kluber - BAL
Note: Since start of 2013 - 3.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, and 4.6 K:BB ratio in 313 IP
10. Max Scherzer - PIT
11. Cole Hamels - at SF
12. Madison Bumgarner - PHI
13. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at ATL, MIL
Note: Since DET popped him for 7 ER - 1.91 ERA, 0.85 WHIP in 33 IP
14. Jake Arrieta - MIL, at NYM
Note: Can't really hold a disaster in Coors against him
15. Zack Greinke - at ATL
16. Garrett Richards - at TEX
17. Sonny Gray - at KC, at ATL
Note: 8.4 K/9 since June 1 (7.8 for the season)
18. Collin McHugh - MIN, at BOS
Note: 3.94 ERA in his last five, but also 34 Ks and just 8 BBs in 29.7 IP
19. Yordano Ventura - OAK, at MIN
20. Justin Verlander - at PIT, SEA
Note: 3.14 ERA in his last four with a 1.11 WHIP in 28.7 IP
21. Hisashi Iwakuma - TOR
22. Jordan Zimmermann - at NYM
Note: Since June 1 - 2.29 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 76 Ks in 78.7 IP
23. Stephen Strasburg - at NYM
Note: Had a 2.70 ERA in seven starts run the last time he gave up 7 ER
24. Homer Bailey - BOS
25. Lance Lynn - SD
Note: Last 15 starts - 2.42 ERA in 93 IP
26. Jose Quintana - TOR
27. Dallas Keuchel - at BOS
Note: Fully back from wrist with 1.61 ERA in last four with 21 Ks and 3.5 K:BB ratio in 28 IP
28. Marcus Stroman - at CWS
29. John Lackey - SD
30. Tyson Ross - at STL
Note: Has not allowed more than 2 ER in any of his last nine (1.62 ERA in 61 IP)
31. Johnny Cueto - at COL
Note: Playing it cautiously with the overall ranking, but obviously still starting him in all leagues
32. Zack Wheeler - CHC
33. Ian Kennedy - COL
Note: Pushed his ERA up to 4.01 with a rough June, but since - 2.30 ERA in 43 IP (7 GS)
34. Jacob deGrom - WAS, CHC
35. Doug Fister - at NYM, PIT
Note: Solid 7.0 K/9 in his last four starts
36. Mat Latos - BOS, at COL
37. Jesse Hahn - COL, at STL
Note: Bumping up near IP cap, will they shorten some of his outings to maybe milk another 1-2 out of him?
38. Wily Peralta - at CHC, at LAD
39. Kyle Hendricks - MIL, at NYM
Note: Emerged from Coors with an 8 IP/2 ER outing to his name
40. Yovani Gallardo - at CHC, at LAD
41. Jeff Samardzija - at KC
Note: Ks light with OAK, but you can't knock 3.09 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 6.0 K:BB in 43.7 IP
42. Alex Cobb - NYY
43. Scott Kazmir - at KC
44. James Shields - OAK
Note: Every time you wanna count him out, he goes on a 1.99 ERA in 40.7 IP roll
45. Chris Archer - at TEX
46. Jake Odorizzi - at TEX
47. Rick Porcello - at PIT, SEA
Note: K rate surging with a 24-percent rate in his last four (26 Ks, 2 BBs in 29 IP; 1.86 ERA as well)
48. Phil Hughes - KC
Note: 5.57 ERA in his last nine, but also an 8.2 K:BB ratio; something doesn't add up
49. Brandon McCarthy - at TB
Note: As a Yankee threw 5 IP last Saturday - 2.29 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 5.8 K:BB ratio in 35.3 IP
50. Kyle Lohse - at CHC
Note: Bounced back nicely from disaster at STL (6 IP/1 ER vs. LAD)
51. Wade Miley - at MIA
52. Tanner Roark - PIT
Note: First really rough outing since May 3 (2.20 ERA in 15 starts between the two)
53. Shane Greene - at BAL
Note: I buy this more than Chase Whitley because Greene's stuff is legit
54. Hiroki Kuroda - at TB
55. Michael Pineda - at BAL
56. Matt Shoemaker - PHI
57. Drew Smyly - at TEX, NYY
Note: 5.54 ERA in his last seven starts, but 3.7 K:BB ratio offers hope
58. Alex Wood - OAK
59. Ervin Santana - LAD
Note: Should probably chisel another 0.20 or so off of that composite ERA by season's end
60. Gio Gonzalez - PIT
Note: A tough read of late, but it's not so dire that I'm avoiding him at all costs
61. Nathan Eovaldi - STL
Note: Hey, good Eovaldi is back (0.60 ERA in 15 IP vs. CIN in back-to-back outings)
62. Bartolo Colon - WAS
63. Tim Hudson - PHI
64. Anibal Sanchez - PIT
Note: Left last start with a pec strain, stay tuned for news on if he even makes this start
65. J.A. Happ - at SEA
Note: Dominant in three of his last four and now gets MLB's 29th-lowest OPS vs. LHP (.639)
66. Chase Anderson - at MIA
Note: 2.34 ERA in his last six starts with 35 Ks in 34.7 IP
67. Jimmy Nelson - at LAD
Note: Still just the one bad start in his first five as an MLBer (2.80 ERA in the other four)
68. Charlie Morton - at WAS
69. Aaron Harang - LAD
70. Tsuyoshi Wada - MIL
Note: Been hit just once in five starts (vs. SD of all teams); 6 Ks in each of last three
71. R.A Dickey - at SEA
72. Danny Duffy - at MIN
73. Jason Hammel - at ATL
Note: He's just not this bad. He might need to call Chris Bosio for a chat, but he's not this bad
74. Jeremy Hellickson - at TEX, NYY
75. Drew Hutchison - at SEA, at CWS
Note: He's starting to veer from that home/road split, instead just suffering the inconsistency of youngsters
76. Chris Capuano - at BAL, at TB
77. Chris Young - TOR, at DET
Note: I'm reluctantly starting to buy a bit because the component numbers have sharply improved
78. Jon Niese - at PHI, CHC
Note: These two teams should help him break his funk (6.04 ERA in last five starts)
79. Jeff Locke - DET, at WAS
80. Tom Koehler - STL, ARI
Note: He's been reliable of late with a 3.19 ERA in his last five starts
81. Dillon Gee - WAS
82. Ryan Vogelsong - CWS
83. Jason Vargas - OAK
84. Brett Oberholtzer - MIN
Note: First seven starts - 5.68 ERA, last nine - 3.02 ERA
85. Chris Tillman - at CLE
86. Trevor Bauer - ARI
87. Kevin Gausman - at CLE
88. James Paxton - at DET
Note: Keep an eye on Saturday's start
89. Wei-Yin Chen - NYY
90. Vance Worley - at DET
Note: 0.96 ERA in his last four starts, all against the NL West (sans COL)
91. Mike Fiers - at CHC
Note: Dominated Triple-A with a 2.55 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 7.6 K:BB ratio in 102.3 IP; can it translate again?
92. Tim Lincecum - PHI
93. Jake Peavy - CWS
94. Francisco Liriano - at DET
Note: 1.44 ERA in his last four starts with 29 Ks and 4.1 K:BB ratio in 25 IP
95. Roberto Hernandez - at ATL
96. Shelby Miller - at MIA, SD
Note: 2.41 ERA in his last three, all vs. bad teams (CHC, SD, BOS); don't buy long-term, but two more duds here
97. Miguel Gonzalez - NYY
Note: 2.43 ERA in his last six starts (40.7 IP)
98. Hector Santiago - at TEX
99. Mark Buehrle - at CWS
Note: 6.16 ERA in his last six starts, but can't ignore the 2.50 from his first 17
100. Scott Feldman - at BOS
Note: Spot-starting a hot hand (unless he's bombed on Saturday) against a terrible opponent