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Pitching Value Meter: Two Starts for Kershaw

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change, so if you see something that isn't correct, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this was written and feel free to politely bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week Aug. 25-31

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Felix Hernandez - TEX
Note: Back-to-back sub-6 IP outings aren't enough to lose the top spot
2. Corey Kluber - at CWS
3. Max Scherzer - at CWS
4. David Price - NYY
Note: Probably figured his run support issues to be long gone, but he's 1-1 in 4 GS with DET thanks to 13 runs on his behalf
5. Chris Sale - DET
6. Hisashi Iwakuma - WAS
7. Alex Cobb - at BAL, BOS
Note: Has an insane 0.88 ERA in his last six starts (41 IP) with 46 Ks
8. Jose Quintana - CLE, DET
9. James Shields - NYY, CLE
10. Dallas Keuchel - OAK, TEX
11. Jake Odorizzi - at BAL, BOS
Note: Has fanned at least 5 in 19 of his 25 starts; more than Sale, Samardzija, Lynn (18)
12. Jeff Samardzija - at HOU, at LAA
13. Michael Pineda - at KC, at TOR
14. Matt Shoemaker - MIA, OAK
Note: His no-hit bid in Boston garnered him some much-deserved attention, he's been really impressive this year
15. Jon Lester - at LAA
Note: Tough matchup, but he's been so good with OAK
16. Sonny Gray - at HOU
17. Phil Hughes - at KC
Note: That seven-start late-June to late-July slump (6.31 ERA) is punishing his bottom line (2.72 ERA in his other 102.7 IP)
18. Scott Kazmir - at LAA
19. Yordano Ventura - MIN
Note: Since his 0 K game in BOS on July 20th - 2.84 ERA and 37 Ks in 38 IP
20. Chris Archer - BOS
21. Brandon McCarthy - at DET, at TOR
22. Rick Porcello - NYY, at CWS
23. Danny Duffy - MIN, CLE
Note: Survived COL due to error erasing 4 ER, but impressed by the bounce-back seventh inning after grand slam in the sixth
24. Drew Smyly - at BAL
Note: Perhaps TB knew what they were doing? 1.55 ERA with 23 Ks and 3.8 K:BB ratio in 29 IP
25. Shane Greene - at DET
Note: His breakout start was against DET and they are playing even worse now
26. Collin McHugh - TEX
27. Jered Weaver - OAK
28. Marcus Stroman - BOS
Note: OK, now this is three duds in his last four; fatigue setting in? (career-high 127.7 IP)
29. Justin Verlander - at CWS
30. Jason Vargas - CLE
Note: CLE carries fourth-lowest OPS vs. LHP; Vargas has 3.29 ERA and 1.02 WHIP vs. CLE in 2 GS
31. Jeremy Hellickson - at BAL
32. Wei-Yin Chen - TB, MIN
33. James Paxton - TEX, WAS
Note: Perhaps if he hadn't missed most of the year on the shelf, he'd have been given a longer leash in that tough outing at PHI
34. Jason Hammel - at HOU, at LAA
35. Chris Tillman - TB, MIN
36. Hiroki Kuroda - at DET
37. Hector Santiago - MIA
38. Chris Young - WAS
Note: Even though I've had a hard time buying Young this year, I don't think his start at BOS is anything more than a rough start
39. Brett Oberholtzer - TEX
40. Chris Capuano - at TOR
41. Danny Salazar - at KC
Note: Ks could be a challenge against KC with their league-best 15.5 percent K rate vs. RHP
42. Rubby De La Rosa - at TOR
Note: Two 8-K outings in his last three, both vs. LAA
43. Kevin Gausman - TB
Note: Showing signs every outing
44. C.J. Wilson - OAK
Note: Back-to-back useful outings are encouraging, but neither were close to flawless (1.58 WHIP)
45. Carlos Carrasco - at CWS
Note: Another a big outing, albeit against HOU, but still notable
46. Miguel Gonzalez - MIN
47. Bud Norris - TB
Note: Has a 2.87 ERA in his last 10 starts with 51 Ks in 59.7 IP
48. Trevor Bauer - at KC
Note: Still wildly inconsistent, so now your team's risk tolerance needs to be the primary consideration with him
49. R.A. Dickey - BOS
Note: See also - Bauer, Trevor

SIT


50. Kyle Gibson - at BAL
51. T.J. House - at CWS, at KC
52. Scott Feldman - OAK, TEX
Note: Contact-heavy approach can be bumpy - 2, 7, 3, 6, 1, 1, 3, 7, and 2 ER in his last nine starts
53. J.A. Happ - BOS, NYY
54. Roenis Elias - TEX
Note: He hasn't completed 6 IP since June 28th
55. Jeremy Guthrie - MIN
Note: Once you start to buy in, you get back-to-back 4 ER outings dropped on your head
56. Drew Hutchison - NYY
Note: I preferred it when he only got pounded at home (13 ER in last two, both on the road)
57. Joe Kelly - at TOR
58. Mark Buehrle - NYY
59. John Danks - CLE
60. Nick Tepesch - at HOU
61. Nick Martinez - at SEA, at HOU
62. Colby Lewis - at SEA
63. Brandon Workman - at TB
64. Brad Peacock - OAK
65. Ricky Nolasco - at KC, at BAL
66. Allen Webster - at TB
67. Wade LeBlanc - MIA, OAK
68. Tommy Milone - at KC
69. Robbie Ray - NYY
70. Hector Noesi -CLE
71. Trevor May - at BAL
72. Buck Farmer - at CWS
Note: Likely to get a look as the other arm in a doubleheader with CWS on Saturday
73. Clay Buchholz - at TOR, at TB
74. Scott Carroll - DET
75. Miles Mikolas - at SEA, at HOU
76. Yu Darvish or replacement - at HOU
Note: His Aug. 25 return date is said to be too aggressive now. Stay tuned. Obviously if it's Darvish, he's an auto-start back up near the top.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Clayton Kershaw - WAS, ARI
Note: Great time for a two-start week in H2H leagues, especially if the playoffs have already started
2. Johnny Cueto - CHC, at PIT
3. Madison Bumgarner - COL, MIL
Note: A bit more inconsistent this year with nine starts of 4-plus ER after just four all last year
4. Cole Hamels - WAS
5. Jake Arrieta - at CIN
Note: See why we didn't worry after the rough start at COL? (1.27 ERA in 21.3 IP with 18 Ks since)
6. Jordan Zimmermann - at SEA
7. Stephen Strasburg - at SEA
Note: Still not having a *bad* season just because he doesn't have a 2.50 ERA
8. Julio Teheran - at NYM
9. Adam Wainwright - at PIT
Note: No longer a K force by rate, but volume (7 IP/start) keeps his totals solid
10. Zack Greinke - ARI
11. Lance Lynn - at PIT
Note: Has a 1.73 ERA in his last nine starts spanning July and August
12. Tyson Ross - MIL
Note: No longer a road liability (3.44 ERA in 86.3 road IP)
13. John Lackey - at PIT, CHC
14. Zack Wheeler - ATL
Note: Last year or even earlier this year, he probably lets that OAK start get away from him
15. Ian Kennedy - LAD
16. Gerrit Cole - STL
Note: Came out blazing with a big seven-inning outing vs. ATL
17. Doug Fister - at PHI
18. Mat Latos - CHC
19. Hyun-Jin Ryu - ARI
Note: Stay tuned to ensure he's still slated to return later next week. Otherwise, it'll be Kevin Correia
20. Yovani Gallardo - at SD
21. Kyle Lohse - at SD, at SF
Note: Common theme in any of his bad outings? Home runs. Both of these venues stifle the longball significantly
22. Tanner Roark - at PHI, at SEA
23. Alex Wood - at NYM, MIA
24. Wily Peralta - at SF
Note: Since allowing 9 ER vs. PHI on July 8 - 8 ER in seven starts (1.59 ERA)
25. Mike Fiers - at SF
26. Ervin Santana - MIA
27. Gio Gonzalez - at PHI
Note: The Ks made it easy to stick by him even when the results weren't there
28. Wade Miley - LAD
Note: Dodged raindrops in CIN (14 runners in 6.7 scoreless IP)
29. Jon Niese - ATL
30. Kyle Hendricks - at CIN
Note: No free passes and keeping the ball in the yard alleviates the need for massive K totals
31. Bartolo Colon - PHI
32. Tim Hudson - COL
33. Andrew Cashner - LAD
Note: Could be a nice boost to a rotation down the stretch after missing over two months
34. Jacob deGrom - PHI
35. Chase Anderson - COL
Note: Trip to WAS spoiled a big run, but stay the course
36. Jimmy Nelson - at SD
37. Aaron Harang - MIA
Note: He's been pretty good all year save those three 5-plus ER disasters
38. Ryan Vogelsong - MIL
39. Mike Minor - at NYM
Note: Coming out of it finally? 2.53 ERA and 19 Ks in last three starts (21.3 IP)
40. Francisco Liriano - STL, CIN
Note: Two-start weeks for volatile guys aren't always as embraced as normal two-start weeks
41. Jake Peavy - COL, MIL
42. Tom Koehler - at ATL
Note: 2.70 ERA and 20 Ks in 20 IP vs. ATL this year
43. Vance Worley - CIN
Note: Four HRs allowed in two poor starts; just a blip or something more? Need to see more, but not afraid to use him vs. CIN
44. David Buchanan - at NYM
45. Mike Leake - CHC
46. Tsuyoshi Wada - at STL
Note: Missing more bats than I expected (7.7 K/9, 21 percent K rate)
47. Jordan Lyles - at SF
48. Dillon Gee - ATL, PHI
49. Trevor Cahill - LAD
Note: I always liked what Cahill had to offer at his best; he seems to have recovered at least a large portion of that form
50. Edinson Volquez - CIN
Note: Searage, you did it again! 2.22 ERA in his last 10 starts
51. Henderson Alvarez - at LAA
Note: That was pretty much what I expected in COL
52. Roberto Hernandez - WAS
Note: He does have a 2.94 ERA in his last 10 starts, but also a 1.4 K:BB ratio

SIT


53. Dan Haren - WAS
Note: Has a 2.70 ERA in his last four starts with 20 Ks, 5.0 K:BB ratio, but HRs still loom, ready to destroy any start at a moment's notice
54. Jeff Locke - STL
Note: Walked 13 in first 11 starts; has 12 in his last three
55. Tim Lincecum - COL
56. Alfredo Simon - at PIT
Note: It wasn't a disaster, but he's benched
57. A.J. Burnett - WAS, at NYM
58. Jarred Cosart - at LAA, at ATL
59. Justin Masterson - CHC
60. Nathan Eovaldi - at LAA
Note: Too volatile to trust against this offense
61. Vidal Nuno - COL
62. Jorge De La Rosa - at SF, at ARI
63. Tyler Matzek - at SF, at ARI
64. Shelby Miller - CHC
Note: Just continues an incredible run of schedule luck, but he's squandering it (4.25 ERA in five straight vs. weak teams)
65. Josh Collmenter - COL
66. Brad Hand - at ATL
67. Franklin Morales - at SF
68. Eric Stults - MIL, LAD
69. Dan Straily - at STL
70. Kyle Kendrick - WAS
71. Travis Wood - at CIN, at STL
72. Jerome Williams - at NYM
73. Odrisamer Despaigne - MIL
74. Christian Bergman - at ARI
75. Homer Bailey Replacement - at PIT
Note: Doubt it will be David Holmberg again

MLB TOP 100

1. Clayton Kershaw - WAS, ARI
Note: Great time for a two-start week in H2H leagues, especially if the playoffs have already started
2. Johnny Cueto - CHC, at PIT
3. Madison Bumgarner - COL, MIL
Note: A bit more inconsistent this year with nine starts of 4-plus ER after just four all last year
4. Cole Hamels - WAS
5. Felix Hernandez - TEX
Note: Back-to-back sub-6 IP outings aren't enough to lose the top spot
6. Jake Arrieta - at CIN
Note: See why we didn't worry after the rough start at COL? (1.27 ERA in 21.3 IP with 18 Ks since)
7. Corey Kluber - at CWS
8. Max Scherzer - at CWS
9. David Price - NYY
Note: Probably figured his run support issues to be long gone, but he's 1-1 in 4 GS with DET thanks to 13 runs on his behalf
10. Chris Sale - DET
11. Hisashi Iwakuma - WAS
12. Jordan Zimmermann - at SEA
13. Stephen Strasburg - at SEA
Note: Still not having a *bad* season just because he doesn't have a 2.50 ERA
14. Julio Teheran - at NYM
15. Adam Wainwright - at PIT
Note: No longer a K force by rate, but volume (7 IP/start) keeps his totals solid
16. Alex Cobb - at BAL, BOS
Note: Has an insane 0.88 ERA in his last six starts (41 IP) with 46 Ks
17. Jose Quintana - CLE, DET
18. James Shields - NYY, CLE
19. Dallas Keuchel - OAK, TEX
20. Jake Odorizzi - at BAL, BOS
Note: Has fanned at least 5 in 19 of his 25 starts; more than Sale, Samardzija, Lynn (18)
21. Jeff Samardzija - at HOU, at LAA
22. Michael Pineda - at KC, at TOR
23. Matt Shoemaker - MIA, OAK
Note: His no-hit bid in Boston garnered him some much-deserved attention, he's been really impressive this year
24. Zack Greinke - ARI
25. Lance Lynn - at PIT
Note: Has a 1.73 ERA in his last nine starts spanning July and August
26. Tyson Ross - MIL
Note: No longer a road liability (3.44 ERA in 86.3 road IP)
27. Jon Lester - at LAA
Note: Tough matchup, but he's been so good with OAK
28. Sonny Gray - at HOU
29. Phil Hughes - at KC
Note: That seven-start late-June to late-July slump (6.31 ERA) is punishing his bottom line (2.72 ERA in his other 102.7 IP)
30. John Lackey - at PIT, CHC
31. Zack Wheeler - ATL
Note: Last year or even earlier this year, he probably lets that OAK start get away from him
32. Ian Kennedy - LAD
33. Gerrit Cole - STL
Note: Came out blazing with a big seven-inning outing vs. ATL
34. Doug Fister - at PHI
35. Mat Latos - CHC
36. Hyun-Jin Ryu - ARI
Note: Stay tuned to ensure he's still slated to return later next week. Otherwise, it'll be Kevin Correia
37. Yovani Gallardo - at SD
38. Scott Kazmir - at LAA
39. Yordano Ventura - MIN
Note: Since his 0 K game in BOS on July 20th - 2.84 ERA and 37 Ks in 38 IP
40. Chris Archer - BOS
41. Brandon McCarthy - at DET, at TOR
42. Rick Porcello - NYY, at CWS
43. Kyle Lohse - at SD, at SF
Note: Common theme in any of his bad outings? Home runs. Both of these venues stifle the longball significantly
44. Danny Duffy - MIN, CLE
Note: Survived COL due to error erasing 4 ER, but impressed by the bounce-back seventh inning after grand slam in the sixth
45. Drew Smyly - at BAL
Note: Perhaps TB knew what they were doing? 1.55 ERA with 23 Ks and 3.8 K:BB ratio in 29 IP
46. Shane Greene - at DET
Note: His breakout start was against DET and they are playing even worse now
47. Collin McHugh - TEX
48. Jered Weaver - OAK
49. Tanner Roark - at PHI, at SEA
50. Alex Wood - at NYM, MIA
51. Wily Peralta - at SF
Note: Since allowing 9 ER vs. PHI on July 8 - 8 ER in seven starts (1.59 ERA)
52. Mike Fiers - at SF
53. Ervin Santana - MIA
54. Gio Gonzalez - at PHI
Note: The Ks made it easy to stick by him even when the results weren't there
55. Marcus Stroman - BOS
Note: OK, now this is three duds in his last four; fatigue setting in? (career-high 127.7 IP)
56. Justin Verlander - at CWS
57. Jason Vargas - CLE
Note: CLE carries fourth-lowest OPS vs. LHP; Vargas has 3.29 ERA and 1.02 WHIP vs. CLE in 2 GS
58. Jeremy Hellickson - at BAL
59. Wei-Yin Chen - TB, MIN
60. James Paxton - TEX, WAS
Note: Perhaps if he hadn't missed most of the year on the shelf, he'd have been given a longer leash in that tough outing at PHI
61. Jason Hammel - at HOU, at LAA
62. Chris Tillman - TB, MIN
63. Wade Miley - LAD
Note: Dodged raindrops in CIN (14 runners in 6.7 scoreless IP)
64. Jon Niese - ATL
65. Kyle Hendricks - at CIN
Note: No free passes and keeping the ball in the yard alleviates the need for massive K totals
66. Bartolo Colon - PHI
67. Tim Hudson - COL
68. Andrew Cashner - LAD
Note: Could be a nice boost to a rotation down the stretch after missing over two months
69. Jacob deGrom - PHI
70. Hiroki Kuroda - at DET
71. Hector Santiago - MIA
72. Chase Anderson - COL
Note: Trip to WAS spoiled a big run, but stay the course
73. Jimmy Nelson - at SD
74. Aaron Harang - MIA
Note: He's been pretty good all year save those three 5-plus ER disasters
75. Ryan Vogelsong - MIL
76. Mike Minor - at NYM
Note: Coming out of it finally? 2.53 ERA and 19 Ks in last three starts (21.3 IP)
77. Francisco Liriano - STL, CIN
Note: Two-start weeks for volatile guys aren't always as embraced as normal two-start weeks
78. Jake Peavy - COL, MIL
79. Chris Young - WAS
Note: Even though I've had a hard time buying Young this year, I don't think his start at BOS is anything more than a rough start
80. Tom Koehler - at ATL
Note: 2.70 ERA and 20 Ks in 20 IP vs. ATL this year
81. Vance Worley - CIN
Note: Four HRs allowed in two poor starts; just a blip or something more? Need to see more, but not afraid to use him vs. CIN
82. David Buchanan - at NYM
83. Mike Leake - CHC
84. Tsuyoshi Wada - at STL
Note: Missing more bats than I expected (7.7 K/9, 21 percent K rate)
85. Jordan Lyles - at SF
86. Dillon Gee - ATL, PHI
87. Trevor Cahill - LAD
Note: I always liked what Cahill had to offer at his best; he seems to have recovered at least a large portion of that form
88. Rubby De La Rosa - at TOR
Note: Two 8-K outings in his last three, both vs. LAA
89. Kevin Gausman - TB
Note: Showing signs every outing
90. C.J. Wilson - OAK
Note: Back-to-back useful outings are encouraging, but neither were close to flawless (1.58 WHIP)
91. Carlos Carrasco - at CWS
Note: Another a big outing, albeit against HOU, but still notable
92. Miguel Gonzalez - MIN
93. Bud Norris - TB
Note: Has a 2.87 ERA in his last 10 starts with 51 Ks in 59.7 IP
94. Edinson Volquez - CIN
Note: Searage, you did it again! 2.22 ERA in his last 10 starts
95. Henderson Alvarez - at LAA
Note: That was pretty much what I expected in COL
96. Roberto Hernandez - WAS
Note: He does have a 2.94 ERA in his last 10 starts, but also a 1.4 K:BB ratio
97. Trevor Bauer - at KC
Note: Still wildly inconsistent, so now your team's risk tolerance needs to be the primary consideration with him
98. R.A. Dickey - BOS
Note: See also - Bauer, Trevor
99. Kyle Gibson - at BAL
100. Dan Haren - WAS
Note: Has a 2.70 ERA in his last four starts with 20 Ks, 5.0 K:BB ratio, but HRs still loom, ready to destroy any start at a moment's notice