This article is part of our The Saber's Edge series.
With the regular season's end less than a month away, a fantasy baseball team may need to make a few changes to their pitching staff. A problem in September is that non-playoff teams will shut down their pitchers, or give them an extra day of rest here and there. To help deal with the lack of consistent starts, I am going delve into some available pitchers (less than 50% owned in both ESPN and Yahoo! leagues) on some contenders. These teams will be fighting for division titles and Wild Card spots, and will have less incentive to sit or rest their regulars.
Orioles
Kevin Gausman (Owned %'s ESPN: 7%, Yahoo! 14%) - In all honesty, I have not been a huge Gausman fan compared to other writers. The highly touted prospect's 6.6 K/9 is fine, but his 3.1 BB/9 is just too high for the low strikeout total. It would be nice to see a pitcher who throws 95 mph get a few more strikeouts. Another issue I have with him is his 41% GB%, which is in the league's bottom half. I am amazed he is able to keep his home runs allowed at such a low level (0.5 HR/9).
With that being said, those strikeout and walk numbers are arguably better than those of Orioles starter Chris Tillman (6.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9). Tillman has a better ERA than Gausman, 3.36 vs 3.93 and is therefore owned in 95% of ESPN leagues and 71% of Yahoo! Leagues. The main
With the regular season's end less than a month away, a fantasy baseball team may need to make a few changes to their pitching staff. A problem in September is that non-playoff teams will shut down their pitchers, or give them an extra day of rest here and there. To help deal with the lack of consistent starts, I am going delve into some available pitchers (less than 50% owned in both ESPN and Yahoo! leagues) on some contenders. These teams will be fighting for division titles and Wild Card spots, and will have less incentive to sit or rest their regulars.
Orioles
Kevin Gausman (Owned %'s ESPN: 7%, Yahoo! 14%) - In all honesty, I have not been a huge Gausman fan compared to other writers. The highly touted prospect's 6.6 K/9 is fine, but his 3.1 BB/9 is just too high for the low strikeout total. It would be nice to see a pitcher who throws 95 mph get a few more strikeouts. Another issue I have with him is his 41% GB%, which is in the league's bottom half. I am amazed he is able to keep his home runs allowed at such a low level (0.5 HR/9).
With that being said, those strikeout and walk numbers are arguably better than those of Orioles starter Chris Tillman (6.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9). Tillman has a better ERA than Gausman, 3.36 vs 3.93 and is therefore owned in 95% of ESPN leagues and 71% of Yahoo! Leagues. The main issue with Gausman's value going forward is possible inconsistent playing time. He has been a regular to the rotation since the middle of August after bouncing around from the minors and back. He should continue to be a fixture in the rotation until the season ends.
Wei-Yin Chen (Owned %'s ESPN: 48% Yahoo!: 38%) - I don't understand his ownership numbers. He is striking out 0.5 more batters per nine innings than Chris Tillman (6.7 vs 6.2), and he is walking about 1.5 fewer batters per nine (1.6 vs 3.0). Chen is owned in about half as many leagues as Tillman. He is one of the pitchers to acquire if the rest of your fantasy team is getting shut down.
Bud Norris (Owned %'s ESPN: 6% Yahoo!: 15%) - I will keep beating the drum on these under owned Orioles pitchers as Norris is putting up similar numbers to Chen. He has the same ERA at 3.83, and a FIP within .08. Chen issues fewer walks, so their K%-BB% is off by 1.7%. There is really no reason for the difference in ownership rates to be this wide.
Miguel Gonzalez (Owned %'s ESPN: 8% Yahoo!: 10%) - Gonzalez has been one of the few Oriole pitchers to let the long ball get the best of him (1.6 HR/9). He has limited the damage of the home runs (2.2 HR/9 with the bases empty, 0.7 with runners on base) and has a 3.61 ERA.
Note: I am not completely sure why so little love exists for the Orioles starters. I went through each of the expected starters on contending teams and Baltimore had four of its five starters owned in less than 50% of the leagues. This number was more than any other team (Pirates with three and the rest with two or fewer). These four pitchers have a GB% between 38% and 43%, which is a below average groundball rate. I am thinking the possibility for home runs is scaring off some owners, but it shouldn't too much. Camdem Yards is a little more home run prone (110 park factor) than the rest of the league, but it is not completely out of whack. I think there is some good value to be found in this quartet.
Royals
Jeremy Guthrie (Owned %'s ESPN: 8% Yahoo!: 10%) - The 35-year-old just doesn't have many redeeming traits like striking out batters or inducing groundballs. Instead, what you see is what you get – a pitcher who allows a 4.31 ERA (4.41 FIP and 4.30 xFIP). I would own any of the previously mentioned Orioles before Guthrie.
Jason Vargas (Owned %'s ESPN: 36% Yahoo!: 38% ) - I am not sure why Vargas is one of the most owned players I listed. He has a sort of shiny 3.27 ERA. A lefty with an 87 mph fastball can only do so much. He has been steady by limiting walks and home runs while going out every five days, but that is about it.
Tigers
Robbie Ray (Owned %'s ESPN: 0% Yahoo!: 0% ) - I am not sure at all if Ray will be the fifth starter for the Tigers, but someone will need to fill the void. His biggest problem is that he walks too many batters (3.4 BB/9) while not striking out many (6.1 K/9). His MLB walk rate could get worse as he has walked four batters per nine in Triple-A this season. There is no need to take a chance on him down the stretch, as he may be the worst pitcher I examined and he has the least secure job.
Angels
Hector Santiago (Owned %'s ESPN: 6% Yahoo!: 17%) - Here is one pitcher on the list that I would target. The main reason I like him is the high strikeout rate (7.9 K/9). Also, if he is not pitching in a home run happy ballpark, he can be trusted more because he is a flyball machine (29% GB%). With flyballs more likely to be outs, he has been able to maintain a below average BABIP (.267). Finally, with the Angels feeling the crunch for pitching, he should be in the rotation for the rest of the season.
Cory Rasmus (Owned %'s ESPN: 0% Yahoo!: 0%) - Rasmus is a good pitcher, but first he needs to get stretched out after relieving all season. In his first 2014 start, he went three innings and threw just 50 pitches. I could see him move up to 60 to 75 pitches in his next start. It will be difficult for him to get a win and have many strikeouts until his pitch count increases closer to 100. Besides the stretch out period, I like him moving forward.
A's
None
Mariners
Chris Young (Owned %'s ESPN: 25% Yahoo!: 38%) - The magic soft tossing flyball man is having a good season. He is like Hector Santiago, but without the strikeouts. He is a decent start in the AL West with the larger parks (LA, Seattle, Oakland) and weak offenses (Houston and Texas).
Roenis Elias (Owned %'s ESPN: 6% Yahoo!: 10% ) - To me, he is performing as expected, near a 4.00 ERA level. Now, if a team is in need of a few extra strikeouts and can afford the higher rate stats (ERA and WHIP), he is a decent pickup.
Nationals
None
Braves
Aaron Harang (Owned %'s ESPN: 30% Yahoo!: 39%) - While I consider him pretty blah and a replacement level arm, he is putting up OK numbers this season. His strikeouts are near seven per nine, and his ERA is near four, enabling him to rack up to get 10 wins.
Cardinals
None
Brewers
Jimmy Nelson (Owned %'s ESPN: 2% Yahoo!: 7%) - Nelson is a nice pitcher, but he is having a bit of bad BABIP luck (.330). His 7.5 K/9 is one of the better strikeout rates from the available pitchers. I see no reason not to pick him up and ride him to the season's end, although the Brewers may drop him from the rotation with Matt Garza's return from the disabled list.
Pirates
Edinson Volquez (Owned %'s ESPN: 19% Yahoo!: 24% ) - Let me count the ways this man has burned me in the past. He is finally showing the potential he flashed back in 2008. The biggest key this season is the career low number of walks (3.3 BB/9) to go with his 51% GB%. The only problem with the extra control is his K/9 is down to 6.2. His 3.45 ERA and 11 wins are the primary reasons behind his fantasy value. I could still see him get progressively worse as the season continues.
Jeff Locke (Owned %'s ESPN: 5% Yahoo!: 9% ) - He is getting a good number of groundballs (50%) and walking less batters than last season (4.6 BB/9 to 2.7 BB/9). I have never liked Locke, but he is slowly turning into a usable pitcher even though he rarely strikes batters out.
Vance Worley (Owned %'s ESPN: 10% Yahoo!: 15% ) - OK, another groundball machine with an ERA (3.01) less than his FIP (3.75). If his ERA does regress to his FIP, it will still be respectable. Worley's value this season is from not allowing walks (1.7 BB/9).
Note: While these three pitchers may point to the Pirates league leading groundball ways supporting lower than expected ERAs, the other two main starters don't have low ERA's even though they are also heavy groundball pitchers. Francisco Liriano (55 GB%) has a 3.91 ERA vs 3.81 FIP and Charlie Morton (56% GB%) has a 3.84 ERA and a 3.78 FIP. Overall, the team's ERA is only .27 less than their FIP.
Dodgers
Roberto Hernandez (Owned %'s ESPN: 4% Yahoo!: 8% ) - If it wasn't for Robbie Ray, he would be the worst possible pick up. No strikeouts, too many walks, and a 4.00 ERA which will likely get worse. Stay away.
Giants
Yusmeiro Petit (Owned %'s ESPN: 20% Yahoo!: 18%) - Don't let his season long stats fool you. He has really struggled as a starter (6.31 ERA, 3.88 FIP) compared to when he relieved (1.84 ERA, 1.66 FIP). I think he may have a chance to be a good starter eventually, but there is no need to roster him as he goes through the growing pains.
Ryan Vogelsong (Owned %'s ESPN: 17% Yahoo!: 20% ) - He is having a pretty respectable season, carrying good strikeout (7.3 K/9) and walk numbers (2.5 BB/9) along with a nice 3.73 ERA. He is the perfect pickup to help a fantasy team (as long as he's not starting in Coors Field).
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In all, here are the top five pitchers I would pick up. Santiago and Elias are strikeout plays (sortable leader board with all pitchers on it) while the other three are more well rounded.
Jimmy Nelson
Wei-Yin Chen
Ryan Vogelsong
Hector Santiago
Roenis Elias
Sleeper – Cory Rasmus
