Survivor: Going with the Chalk

(For an in-depth primer on our strategy, please see last week's column)

There's not a lot of math required from this slate - at least when it comes to our top choice. The Broncos are easily the biggest favorite at nearly 90 percent, and only 30 percent of pools are on them - not a huge number for such a moneyline outlier. I think what's going on is people want to save them for later, a strategy I don't think works for three reasons: (1) Things change drastically. Peyton Manning could get hurt, his receivers could be decimated by injuries, the defense could turn out to be terrible, etc. We're never going to have as much info about teams as we do days before they play. Looking ahead six or eight weeks to use them is much more speculative. (2) Even if Denver is as good as everyone expects eight weeks from now, and its opponent is as bad, you might not be alive to use them because you didn't get through Week 2, and (3) Even if you are alive, the Broncos could be the wrong play because too many people have also saved them for that week, and they're no longer the best value. Bottom line: Don't worry about saving teams.

My picks

1. Denver Broncos

They're the biggest favorite, and even if they were to lose, fading them wouldn't set you up that nicely as only 30 percent of your pool would be out. The Chiefs aren't as bad as they looked in Week 1, and I actually think they'll make it somewhat competitive, but in Denver the Broncos should pull away. I give the Broncos an 88 percent chance to win this game.

2. Green Bay Packers

This one requires a little math as Green Bay is only a 79/21 favorite, and 30 percent of your pool is likely to be on them. The other option is the 49ers who are seven percent taken and are 74/26 favorites.

The odds of a Packers win/49ers loss is .79*.26 = 20.5 percent. A 49ers win/Packers loss is 15.5 percent. But if the Packers were to lose, 30 percent of your pool would be out, plus 11 other entries, meaning there would be 59 percent left. If your entry were worth $10 before this week, it would be worth $16.95. If the 49ers were to lose, only seven percent would be out, plus 11 more from other teams, so 82 percent would be left, and your $10 stake would be worth $12.20.

So the risk ratio is 20.5/15.5 = 1.32, while the reward ratio is 16.95/12.20 = 1.39. This is pretty close and actually favors the 49ers. But when it's close I'd rather take the team with the better chance to win and press my luck when I have a bigger edge. But both the 49ers and Packers are viable plays if you used Denver last week.

The concern with the Packers is their defense, of course, though I don't see the Jets as likely to keep with them in a shootout. I give the Packers a 79 percent chance to win this game.

3. San Francisco 49ers

We ran through the math, and they're a viable play too. Chicago's offensive upside makes me a little nervous, but the 49ers could run for 250 yards against that defense, especially at home. I give the 49ers a 74 percent chance to win this game.

Notable Omissions

Seattle Seahawks - They're a great team, but much better at home, and San Diego is no doormat.

New Orleans Saints - They Saints don't travel well, and there's even a chance the Browns get Josh Gordon back. Even if Gordon doesn't play, I want no part of New Orleans on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Yes, the Rams looked terrible, but don't risk your season on the Josh-McCown-led Bucs against anyone yet.

Washington Redskins - This team was awful last year, and they did nothing to dispel that in Week 1. Even against the Jaguars, I'd avoid.