This article is part of our On Target series.
One of the largest problems with objective football analysis is sample size. We can obviously establish trends, things that the data can tell us about a season football, but there will always be outliers. As such, it's easy for an objective analysis to be dismissed by those who reject the conclusion of the analysis. That results in both bad original analysis and a lack of real opinions. If we just assume every player is going to regress some ephemeral mean, then there isn't really any profit potential in projecting skill of football players. The ability to be good at fantasy football, to make winning decisions, comes from analyzing data and taking stances, becoming decisive. Holding on to Eddie Lacy while he plods away for three yards and a cloud of dust while Le'Veon Bell leads the league in rushing isn't helping you. I think the most important thing we can do for our fantasy teams is to know when player, a draft pick, simply isn't working out. Sample sizes in football will always be problematic, but there are things that we know now that can aid our decisions. In this week's "On Target," we'll analyze three receivers who it just isn't going to happen for this year and three who look like they will out perform their ADP.
Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers
This one pains me to write because theoretically, Allen is a member of #TeamBigWR. We didn't know a lot about Allen as a prospect because he had such a bad quarterback and was injured at the Combine, so he didn't profile well in any sort of scouting algorithm. He had a great rookie season, but it was built an incredibly high TD percentage -- 11 percent of his catches went for touchdowns, or Calvin Johnson's career number. Allen is a good player, but he isn't Calvin. The issue with Allen is volume; namely that it won't be there. When things are going right for the Chargers, they are running about 60 plays a game with at least one clock-chewing, eight-minute drive, which makes thing tough for any wide receiver. While I do think injuries to Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews will improve Allen's targets, as long as Philip Rivers is attempting less than 35 passes a game with Antonio Gates healthy and Eddie Royal taking red-zone looks away, Allen's value will be volatile week to week.
Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys
While Williams already has two touchdowns, all of his peripheral stats indicate that this likely won't continue. He has only 10 targets this season, and Tony Romo is attempting less than 30 passes a contest to control the game and save the health of his back. Williams' value was built on the premise that Scott Linehan was installing a pas- heavy scheme to push the tempo. Instead, the Cowboys have run the ball first, second and third, only throwing when forced. As long as Dez Bryant remains healthy and the volume remains the same (even in losses) it's hard to imagine Williams delivering sticker price.
Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens
This pains me because there is so much to love about Torrey and his game, but it's not happening while Steve Smith is around. For whatever reason, certainly not ones that I can understand, Gary Kubiak has decided that the elder Smith fits the Andre Johnson role in his offense and has peppered him with targets. Steve Smith has 10 red-zone targets and one touchdown while Torrey has only three targets and one catch. Smiff is fifth in the league with 32 targets, and it's not because of his ability to get open -- it is indicative of a coaching staff making an effort to get him the ball, however mystifying that might be. Torrey has a parachuting price on daily fantasy sites, but I won't be using him any time soon.
Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints
Cooks is the end-all-be-all of small wide recievers in 2014. He has everything you want from a player with sub-optimal size: an intelligent coach who puts him in positions to succeed, amazing timed agility scores at the combine and superior leaping ability and a wide catch radius. Cooks has only five fewer targets than Jimmy Graham and has almost doubled Marques Colston in targets. As long as the Saints keep the same offensive philosophy of the last five years, where passing touchdowns are at a premium, a top-15 finish is possible for Cooks.
Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles
Full disclosure: I wasn't really in on Maclin to start the season. I was unsure if he would slot in to Desean Jackson's role or cede targets to Zach Ertz and Jordan Matthews. The answer is that all of them can be productive players, but the overall talent of Nick Foles and the offensive brilliance of Chip Kelly is going to produce a WR1 season from Maclin. Maclin's 31 targets lead the Eagles by a great margain, and he is third in the league pass routes ran (right behind teammate Riley Cooper). Being the top wide receiver in a Chip Kelly system is going to be a fantasy bonanza, no matter the player, it appears. For daily fantasy, Maclin has a high weekly floor that is almost unrivaled by players at his price point. In seasonal leagues, I'd be attempting to "buy high" as much as possible.
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans
Hopkins best play of the year was wiped out by a penalty flag but is evident of his otherworldly athleticism. I think a lot of people were scared off of Hopkins due to his quarterback situation and the presence of Andre Johnson. Unfortunately, it appears that Johnson might be pretty close to toasted; he's gained only 191 yards on 27 targets thus far while scoring no touchdowns. Hopkins has scored twice on 19 targets with 227 yards. The younger, sprightly Texans wide receiver is going to keep creating fantasy points with his athleticism and preternatural ability to track the ball while in air. Expect as the year goes on, to see Hopkins' targets catch up to Johnson's before finally passing him.
