This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.
After last week's bye schedule sapped fantasy rosters of a ton of talent, this week is practically a freebie. With just the Dolphins and Raiders out the only true start-worthy fantasy options lost are Lamar Miller and Mike Wallace. Back are your Broncos, Seahawks, Bengals, Cardinals, Rams and Browns to provide stars and depth for many a lineup. And with no new significant injuries taking out weekly starters, we're practically back to Week 1 in fantasy terms. Of course, with four games of attrition having already taken it's toll on owners, that's not exactly the case. Still, many, if not all, NFL coaches preach a season divided into four quarters, just like an individual game.
We're one quarter into the fantasy season. At this point it's easier to take a step back and get a better view on the state of our teams, what needs to be fixed, what's working and who is set up for success the next four games. If quarter No. 1 was a tough hit (and I can relate thanks to Cordarrelle Patterson, Doug Martin and one Mr. Ray Rice), some dramatic steps might be needed with either a risky trade or a bold free-agent call. Either way, the time to win is now, this week. As an owner of an underachiever of Patterson's ilk I say sit him and wait a game, maybe two. See how Minnesota involves him -- if it actually does. With a player like Martin, if you can net an upside option for him like Bishop Sankey, I say, what have you got to lose? Take the chance and pull the trigger on a guy averaging a full 3.0 more YPC than Martin (in Sankey's case). Bottom line, play the guys most involved NOW regardless of where you drafted them, and stash some talent on the bench that could emerge into a featured role before quarter No. 2 escapes us (for my taste I'm snagging Brandon LaFell, Davante Adams or Joseph Randle if possible). They may come in handy for the second-half push.
It's a long year, and it's just the second quarter. If you drafted poorly, stay active. If you drafted talent, stay patient. If you drafted studs, give them to me. And in the meantime, pay attention to the matchups -- the defenses and the game circumstances -- that might dictate a lineup shuffle. You never know when it might be that surprise Eddie Royal or Terrance Williams two-score game that saves your week (spoiler alert: play them again).
OK, second quarter is here, back to 0-and-0, but nothing has changed with this piece. This is not intended as a traditional start/sit column. Upgrades are players you wouldn't consistently start (or who have consistently underachieved), while those downgraded generally are lineup mainstays. The designations are simply a guide to make those close calls easier.
UPGRADE
QUARTERBACK
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at JAC
The Jags are last against the pass, allowing roughly 45 more yards per game than the 31st pass defense. They also have a horrendous 11:1 TD:INT ratio. Coming off his biggest game of the season, expect Roethlisberger to stay hot.
Austin Davis, STL at PHI
Davis' 72.3 completion percentage leads the league, and he's getting 8.0 YPA with an athletic group of pass catchers. He's also averaging 75 yards per quarter this year (he's played 10), which would translate to 300 a game, or good for fifth in the league. He can keep up with the Eagles if this turns into a shootout.
Eli Manning, NYG vs. ATL
The Vikings just killed the Falcons with yards after the catch. The new Giants offense is predicated on quick throws to get receivers the ball in space and give them a chance to make plays with their legs. And in case you missed it, Manning has adapted superbly to it (72.0 completion percentage the last two weeks, six TD).
Alex Smith, KC at SF
It's a risky proposition sometimes to start a player based off the revenge factor, but it worked wonders last week for Steve Smith versus his old crew. And while this Smith burns with a quieter, more cerebral motivation, he's definitely a gamer in his own right. Here's betting he continues the hot streak he's on (76.4 completion percentage, six TD in two weeks).
Kyle Orton, BUF at DET
Disclaimer: For two-quarterback leagues only. Orton has talented weapons with Sammy Watkins, Mike Williams and a dynamic pair out of the backfield. When that nasty Lions front four makes Buffalo throw it plenty, he should be quietly productive.
Running Back
LeSean McCoy, PHI vs. STL
The leading rusher in 2013, McCoy has posted a pathetic 39 yards on 29 carries the last two weeks as he's coped with a decimated offensive line. Fortunately, he draws a Rams defense that allowed more than 300 total yards combined to Bobby Rainey and DeMarco Murray in its last two games and gets Lane Johnson back from suspension.
Bishop Sankey, TEN vs. CLE
After Sankey averaged 2.6 MORE yards per carry than Shonn Greene the last two weeks, coach Ken Wisenhunt is finally promising more touches for his rookie. Facing a Browns defense that's allowed a whopping 594 total yards and five touchdowns to running backs in only three games makes Sankey a smart flex.
Matt Asiata/Jerick McKinnon, MIN at GB
The young pair in purple is the league's newest "Thunder & Lightning" duo. They piled up a combined 252 total yards last week against a similarly dismal run defense. The Packers are last in ground defense (176 yards per game), and if Teddy Bridgewater can suit up to provide a passing threat, Asiata and McKinnon could have a mini encore.
Andre Williams, NYG vs. ATL
Williams has averaged nearly 10 carries per game over his last three and peaked with 66 yards and a score in Week 4. Against a Falcons defense that cannot stop the run (153.5 yards allowed per game and nine ground scores - tops in the league), he's a viable flex option.
Wide Receiver
Brian Quick, STL at PHI
Quick has topped 70 yards or scored in all three games this year and now gets an Eagles defense that's allowed 10 passing touchdowns in four games, second most in the league. If the Rams fail to slow down a Philly offense looking to rebound, Quick may post a banner day.
Terrance Williams, DAL vs. HOU
The Texans have only allowed four touchdowns to wide receivers in four games, but Williams has as many in that span by himself. With size, speed and hands he's the ideal compliment opposite Dez Bryant.
Eddie Royal, SD vs. NYJ
San Diego sure as heck isn't running the ball on the Jets top-ranked run defense, which means more passing. Golden Tate went for 116 yards out of the slot on New York, and Royal has piled up four touchdowns the last two weeks, often working out of the slot.
Sammy Watkins, BUF at DET
The dynamic rookie managed to find the end zone twice in the last three weeks despite EJ Manuel connecting with him on just 50 percent of his targets. Orton's better accuracy and ability to read a defense faster will make Watkins' natural talent a more productive one.
Vincent Jackson, TB at NO
Mike Glennon had a tough time hooking up with his star receiver last week, but with 10 targets, the opportunities were there. With Mike Evans (groin) out, those chances may even rise against a Saints team that appears defensively lost these days.
Tight End
Heath Miller, PIT at JAC
Miller has increased his yardage in each game this season, peaking with 85 yards and a touchdown on 10 grabs last week. Clearly Ben Roethlisberger has not forgotten about his security blanket, and an encore should be in store versus a Jaguars defense that's allowed touchdowns to four tight ends this year.
Jordan Cameron, CLE at TEN
Battling a shoulder injury, Cameron has only caught three passes for 70 yards in limited action. Coming off a bye, he should be at his healthiest and gets to shake off the rust against a Titans D that allowed two tight end scores last Sunday. A "remember me?" game could be coming.
Jared Cook, STL at PHI
See Quick, Brian. Cook is just one target off Quick for the team lead and the uber-athletic tight end is still developing that rapport with his young QB, who he famously shoved in Week 3 out of frustration. Expect a kiss-and-make-up day.
DOWNGRADE
Quarterback
Tom Brady, NE vs. CIN
The Cincinnati defense has a league-best 2:6 TD:INT ratio and allows a league-low 5.4 yards per attempt. Had to put that out there in case you missed the Monday night disaster that was the Patriots offense in one of Brady's worst games.
Matt Ryan, ATL at NYG
Ryan doesn't always travel well and the Giants are leading the league with nine interceptions, many of which they've forced by pressuring opposing passers with a deep rotation of defensive linemen. Oh, and it just so happens Atlanta's O-line is banged up.
Andy Dalton, CIN at NE
The Patriots defensive personnel still lends itself toward defending the pass, their offense can't score enough to force the throw and Cinci is trending toward a run-heavy team. Dalton has only thrown two touchdowns in three games and last year's 33-score affair is looking more and more like a distant memory.
Running Back
Montee Ball, DEN vs. AZ
Ball is off to a miserable start with 3.4 YPC through three weeks and as many lost fumbles as touchdowns. Getting a visit from a swarming Cardinals defense that allows just 2.9 YPC and 71.7 yards per game doesn't give one that warm and fuzzy feeling about this being the week he plays like a top draft pick.
Alfred Morris, WAS vs. SEA
Morris has been his consistent self running the football through four weeks, but a Seahawks defense limiting opposing rushers to a league-low 2.8 YPC may put the breaks on his steady play, particularly if Kirk Cousins struggles versus "The Legion of Boom."
Donald Brown, SD vs. NYJ
J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets! That chant should strike fear into the hearts of any owner with a starting back facing a demoralizing Jets front seven. As if Brown's 2.0 YPC weren't discouraging enough, it actually gets worse this week for the San Diego ground game.
Wide Receiver
Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN at GB
This pains me greatly to write, since I have him everywhere, but you have no choice but to bench Patterson despite drafting him to start weekly. Heard of the "Fool me twice ..." adage? Minnesota simply doesn't use its star talent -- see 10 catches and only one run in three weeks. And now a skilled Packers secondary is on deck. Stop getting fooled.
Pierre Garcon, WAS vs. SEA
Now is not the best time to put your faith in 2013's receptions leader. In two of three contests with Kirk Cousins at the helm Garcon has snagged just three total passes for 40 yards. Another primetime matchup looms with Seattle's secondary coming off their bye week. No bueno.
Calvin Johnson, DET vs. BUF
Disclaimer: This is just a lower-your-expectations downgrade. DO NOT BENCH. The Bills have held Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Keenan Allen, Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Wallace all to less than 75 yards. Oh, and there's that pesky sprained ankle Megatron isn't over yet.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski, NE vs. CIN
See Brady, Tom. Gronkowski's not getting the yardage this year in an anemic passing attack and with a value solely tied to touchdowns against a defense that doesn't give them up (just two passing scores, none to TE), the arrow is pointing way down.
Zach Ertz, PHI vs. STL
Starting tight ends have combined for less than 100 receiving yards in three games against an athletic Rams linebacker corps, and Ertz has struggled with just 57 yards over two weeks while losing targets to Jordan Matthews.
