From The Press Box: The Early Surprises

From The Press Box: The Early Surprises

This article is part of our From the Press Box series.


FROM THE PRESS BOX
Paul Bruno, RotoWire.com

Two of the recent top draft picks find themselves in vastly different circumstances as the Sabres and Oilers approach the 10 game mark- what will (should?) they do. We also look at some teams that have started surprisingly well, while others have floundered unexpectedly, giving you reasons to understand these early trajectories.

Draisaitl vs. Bennett

Sam Reinhart and Leon Draisaitl were chose by Edmonton (2nd overall) and Buffalo (3rd) with consecutive picks in the first round of the most recent NHL Amateur Draft this past summer. Through the first three weeks of the season they find themselves in very different circumstances.

Reinhart famously failed to even one pull-up at the scouting combine and does not look at all like the 6'0", 190 lbs. size that is advertised on his hockey bio and he appears to be overmatched by the pace of play this far. He is only getting about 10-11 minutes of playing time per game in a third line capacity, with no exposure on the power play in his first eight games. This does not sound like the Sabres wanted to put any responsibility on Reinhart. Instead, it seems like the idea here has been to have him learn by observing rather than participating. That's a bit wasteful, given the longer-term expectation that he will be expected to fill a key, scoring role here. In addition, the Sabres (2-8, with only 11 goals in 10 games) are off to a very poor


FROM THE PRESS BOX
Paul Bruno, RotoWire.com

Two of the recent top draft picks find themselves in vastly different circumstances as the Sabres and Oilers approach the 10 game mark- what will (should?) they do. We also look at some teams that have started surprisingly well, while others have floundered unexpectedly, giving you reasons to understand these early trajectories.

Draisaitl vs. Bennett

Sam Reinhart and Leon Draisaitl were chose by Edmonton (2nd overall) and Buffalo (3rd) with consecutive picks in the first round of the most recent NHL Amateur Draft this past summer. Through the first three weeks of the season they find themselves in very different circumstances.

Reinhart famously failed to even one pull-up at the scouting combine and does not look at all like the 6'0", 190 lbs. size that is advertised on his hockey bio and he appears to be overmatched by the pace of play this far. He is only getting about 10-11 minutes of playing time per game in a third line capacity, with no exposure on the power play in his first eight games. This does not sound like the Sabres wanted to put any responsibility on Reinhart. Instead, it seems like the idea here has been to have him learn by observing rather than participating. That's a bit wasteful, given the longer-term expectation that he will be expected to fill a key, scoring role here. In addition, the Sabres (2-8, with only 11 goals in 10 games) are off to a very poor start this season. It sure looks like Bennett will be sent down to play more and improve his mindset with the chance to dominate in Junior Hockey.

Draisaitl, on the other hand, looks every bit as rangy as advertised (6'1", 210 lbs.). He has been playing between 12-16 minutes per game and has been included in the rotation of power play forwards, giving the sense that he is being counted upon to be a key contributor right now. The Oilers have welcomed a host of recent top draft picks directly into their NHL roster in the last few years and observers are waiting for that pack of young forwards to click together and finally lead the club back to the post-season. Draisaitl is certainly being shown the same path and the 4-4-1 start for the Oilers bodes well the team and their star rookie. As long as he continues to get these opportunities and learn from them, he is going to look back on his rookie year as a good, developmental opportunity. He is likely to stick beyond the nine-game mark and complete his rookie season on this young roster and I think that's a good move for him.

Hot and Cold starts to the season - the early surprises

(All stats through 10/29)

In the East, the Ottawa Senators (5-2-1) have to be considered the surprise team with a hot start out of the gate. This early turnaround has featured very strong goaltending from the tandem of Craig Anderson (2.01 g.a.a., .944 sv. pct.) and Robin Lehner (2.18 g.a.a., .914 sv.pct.) both of whom are looking better now, than at almost any time last year. The on-ice leadership has fallen to Erik Karlsson, the highest scoring defenseman in the NHL last season. He seems to have picked up right where he left off with seven points in his first eight games. Kyle Turris is finally evolving into a significant offensive producer at center, now featured on the top line. Bobby Ryan signed a long-term deal on the eve of this season and that's a key development for a team that has seen its last two captains leave over the last year and a half. Depth up front and on the blueline will be hard-pressed to provide the secondary scoring to keep the Sens in the playoff hunt in the East.

Meanwhile, Boston has stumbled out the gate, with a 2-4 win/loss record at home, where road teams have enjoyed very little success in recent years. Their overall mark (5-6) is only marginally better because of a 3-2 record on the road. The immediate future will be a greater challenge as Zdeno Chara (knee ligament, 4-6 weeks) and Torey Krug (broken finger, 2-3 weeks), will be missing from the defensive pairings. These losses will mean that Dougie Hamilton, Adam McQuaid and Dennis Seidenberg are the only healthy experienced defensemen here, all of a sudden. They will be tasked with taking on bigger minutes and Tuukka Rask will likely see much more rubber than he is used to, in the Bruins goal. But, there is more to be concerned about here. Even with their full complement on the blueline, the B's had won only two of their first six home games to start this season. The offseason departure of a strong team-leader presence in Jarome Iginla and the fact that this team is limited with a high overall salary cap means that the Bruins may slide back to the pack, instead of being an uncontested top team in the Atlantic Division.

Columbus is another squad that has been hit with a number of key injuries. No fewer than nine regulars are on the shelf at the moment, including top goalie Sergei Bobrovsky (broken finger). Their forward units have been decimated by four injuries to player on the top three lines. Finally, their top-scoring blueliner, James Wisniewski, is also on the shelf with a broken finger. This injury list has prevented the Jackets from living up to pre-season hype that was generated on the basis of the tough, hard-nosed roster that ended last season so strongly and added Scott Hartnell, with more of that style of play. The trouble with all of this bad news happening at once is that no team has the depth to withstand such heavy losses. Currently 4-5, Columbus cannot afford to go into a tailspin while they hope to get healthy. They face a big early challenge to stay afloat. A hot streak for backup goalie Curtis McElhinney is vital for them right now.

In the West, the big news is the early run by Nashville. The Preds have flown under the radar because of a perceived lack of star power in the past. Major changes on the ice saw the addition of James Neal and veterans Mike Ribeiro, along with Derek Roy, among others. All of these veterans have gotten off to good starts and even behind the bench, new coach Peter Laviolette seems to have found an early formula that has this club exceeding expectations. The strength of this team was certainly expected to be the top four guys manning the blueline and they have not disappointed. Shea Weber, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis and Seth Jones are contributing at both ends of the ice, each with at least three points and a positive plus/minus rating. It has not hurt that Pekka Rinne has produced a glittering 1.71 g.a.a and a .936 save percentage. Another, more unexpected development is the hot start by third-year pro Filip Forsberg (seven pts., +10).

Calgary is actually above .500 (5-4-2) and "Johnny Hockey" Gaudreau is being hyped as the Flames are way ahead of expectations. They are another club that is benefitting from the outstanding play of their top four defensemen. Certainly, Marc Giordano's production (a team-leading 8 points and +2) is no surprise. But T.J. Brodie is right there with him, while Dennis Wideman (particularly on the power play) and Kris Russell are also delivering great results. Their offense is concentrated among only a few consistent contributors and that lack of depth will be challenged with the recent injuries to Mason Raymond and Matt Stajan. The bottom may be about to fall out unless Jonas Hiller and Kari Ramo can continue to limit the opposition (a combined 2.04 g.a.a. in 11 games).

On the down side, Colorado may be the biggest disappointment, posting a 2-4-4 mark after having such a great run last season (1st in Central Division, 52-22-8). The Avs have to be considered the biggest disappointment so far this season. Nathan McKinnon, last year's unquestionable rookie of the year, may be the poster boy for the current status of this team, posting only four assists and a (-6) rating. Right alongside him is Gabriel Landeskog (4 goals, 0 assists, -6). Even Matt Duchene has only seven points and a (-1) rating. These three skaters are the centerpieces of this offense. If they don't produce this team is in trouble. Surprisingly, free agent veteran Jarome Iginla is the only positive story, as he is tied for the team lead in scoring (7 pts.) and has a (+2) rating. The Avs avoided a big problem when Erik Johnson narrowly avoided a serious injury when he was checked into the boards earlier this week. That may be a sign that Colorado's luck is about to change, otherwise we may expect to see evidence of Patrick Roy's explosive temper - that could be quite entertaining, though.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Paul Bruno
Paul Bruno is co-host of the RotoWire fantasy hockey podcast, PUCKCAST with Statsman and AJ. He has been an accredited member of the Toronto sports media for more than 20 years. Paul also helps with RW's DFS podcast and is a contributing writer for RW NFL, MLB and CFL content. Follow him on twitter: @statsman22.
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