This article is part of our Beat the Cap series.
The fifth week of the NHL season has begun, and we now have a large enough sample size to begin identifying trends and analyzing statistics.
Finding players who can outproduce their salary is a key component to assembling contending daily hockey lineups on a consistent basis. There are many directions the hunt for value players can go, and one avenue is targeting underachievers.
For lack of a better phrase, good players play 'good.' However, good players who are playing 'good' don't always deliver the results they should. Simply put, the puck luck isn't always on their side.
Player salaries are largely performance driven. Struggling players typically see a gradual decrease in their salary. The opposite is true, too, for hot players.
Marian Hossa and Vladimir Tarasenko are excellent examples to consider. Both are talented offensive players, both play on good teams and both receive prime offensive minutes. Of late, Tarasenko has been scoring and Hossa hasn't.
As a result, Hossa's salary has dropped, whereas Tarasenko's has risen. They're somewhat similar players in similar situations, however one has been underachieving and the other has been (potentially) overachieving. Progression and regression are likely for both, respectively.
A savvy daily gamer identifies value opportunities. Slumps are labeled as such because they don't last. Filling out your roster with an undervalued scorer mired in a drought can help maximize your lineup's upside.
The Ebb
PDO is a worthy statistic to gauge the potential for a player's luck to turn. PDO is the addition of a player's team's shooting percentage and save percentage at even strength while they're on the ice. An individual player's shooting percentage can also be telling.
Players with a PDO of 98.0 to 102.0 are performing close to the league average, and significant change in their production is unlikely. Sticking with the examples, Hossa has a 96.6 PDO and a 5.4 shooting percentage, whereas Tarasenko has a 107.3 PDO and a 14.3 shooting percentage.
Is Tarasenko going to crash to a halting stop? Unlikely, given his high-end talent and strong supporting cast, though his PDO is a significant outlier. Hossa is the focus, though. He is due for an uptick in production over the next handful of games.
Players have statistical ups and downs throughout the season. You are looking to hone in on high-level talents as they're breaking out of a slump, especially when their salaries present value.
The players you're chasing should be established scorers who have an offensive role on their team. Adding Rene Bourque to your lineup because of his 95.1 PDO isn't the idea. Bourque averages 17 seconds of power-play time a game and fills a bottom-six role.
You'll also want to target players who haven't had significant changes to their surroundings or situation. Scott Hartnell (92.2 PDO) is due to improve statistically, however to what degree remains somewhat unknown. This is his first season with Columbus and the jury is still out on where Hartnell slots into a healthy Columbus lineup.
This is another moderation strategy. Identifying a player who is due to score and facing a favorable matchup can help your final point total. Filling your lineup with players due for bounce-back performances is a different story. This is a point-potential, cap-relief strategy, best suited for a single lineup spot.
The Flow
Here are five examples of proven scorers whose low PDO suggest improvement is near. The Chicago Blackhawks have been excluded, because they are beyond due.
Jeff Skinner, LW, Carolina: Even without consistent ice time alongside Eric Staal, Skinner benefits from his return. Skinner has seven shots over his past two games, and he is too talented to be absent from the score sheet this frequently.
Alexander Semin, LW, Carolina: A healthy scratch over the weekend for the Hurricanes, Semin is firmly in buy-low territory. It would be nice to see signs of life before investing, but those willing to take the risk now might also get the largest reward.
Ryan O'Reilly, LW, Colorado: It is somewhat scary that he has eight points and an 88.9 PDO. He also has six points over his last six games. While the point production may not get a huge spike, the stats suggest everything he is doing offensively is sustainable.
Jaromir Jagr, RW, New Jersey: Similar to O'Reilly, Jagr's production hasn't been abysmal, but it is sustainable, and there is potential for more. He is often overlooked due to age, but in favorable matchups, Jagr is a solid mid-priced option.
Jonathan Huberdeau, LW, Florida: Currently dealing with an illness, Huberdeau is also mired in a serious offensive funk. Realistically, he has been reeling since his rookie campaign. Expect the offense to come, once he returns to the ice.
Antoine Vermette, C, Arizona: With a three-point night in his last game, Vermette has already started his surge after an unlucky start. His PDO still sits at 94.2, though. Although far from a perennial All-Star, Vermette has always been a reliable secondary scorer.
Flashback to Adventures in Stacking
The Pittsburgh Penguins were an obvious stack option Saturday night against the Buffalo Sabres. Loading up on the top options from Pittsburgh likely landed a few GPP first place finishes Saturday, too.
However, there were a lot of Pittsburgh stacks in cash games, too. While it worked Saturday, it is an extremely risky cash game move to stack a particular team. It is especially risky when there are 12 games on the schedule.
Specifically speaking to the Sabres, they upset the Sharks the previous Saturday and also pulled off another upset win as recently as Sunday over the Red Wings. The point being is that full-out stacks are best suited to nights with four or less games and in GPP contests.
The Penguins could have played an exceptional game to the tune of a 2-0 victory. They also could have lost. Again, Saturday it worked, but in cash games, you should be assembling a more balanced roster to protect yourself from a potential upset. Or more likely, a convincing win where your players aren't heavily involved in the scoring.
Remember to keep the contest goal in mind when assembling your lineups.
If you have additional questions or would like to see anything specifically covered in Beat the Cap contact me in the comments below or via Twitter @naparker77.
