This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
Buy Low! Sell High!
It's odd how much fantasy content centers around trade advice. Not that trades can't help you, but let's be realistic: the fantasy market isn't all that liquid. Occasionally there are perfect fits where one owner has a surplus at WR, another at RB and a deficit where his potential trade partner is strong, but that's the exception. Usually, it's one owner trying to pry a good player from another for a collection of players that probably belong on the waiver wire.
I also don't understand the format where people bring up individual players and ask whether you should trade them. I always wonder: "For whom?" It's not like we have a ticker we can look up that shows the player's going rate.
In my experience there are only three kinds of trades one can reliably make and those are "sell low," "buy high" and "buy lowest". (You can't sell lowest, because few will buy players whose values have bottomed out.)
Sell low: You can almost always sell an A.J. Green or LeSean McCoy for someone drafted much lower and producing only moderately. Green for Joique Bell and Vincent Jackson? That probably gets done, not that you'd necessarily want it to.
Buy high: You want to deal Julio Jones for Justin Forsett or Ahmad Bradshaw? You can almost certainly make those trades if you'd like too.
Buy lowest: These are the trades that are usually worth making. I had a chance to acquire Tom Brady (before the Chiefs game) for Blake Bortles in a 2-QB league*. Obviously, I should have accepted the offer when Brady's value was at rock bottom. Before Ronnie Hillman's injury, you could have had Montee Ball for next to nothing, and you can still get Michael Floyd, Vernon Davis, Eric Decker or Cam Newton as throw-ins. Not that any of them will necessarily pan out, but the talent is there, and the opportunity could arrive or situation improve at any moment.
If those ideas don't sound especially appealing to you, feel free to peddle "name players" like Wes Welker or Marques Colston for something useful. See how likely it is you get something done.
*I didn't pull the trigger for reasons that seemed rational at the time (I hated the spot in KC on Monday Night, i.e., I thought his price would go down further), and I liked Bortles, a running QB who looked great in the preseason on a team that didn't play defense. I was actually correct about one thing - Brady's price did fall after the Chiefs game, only he was traded to another owner for Mike Glennon before I could come back with another offer (I had wanted to give up Ryan Tannehill instead.)
Who is Brian Hoyer?
He's a 29-year old journeyman backup who had thrown 114 career passes since his rookie season in 2009. Last year, which comprised half his previous career workload, he managed 6.4 YPA with five TDs and three picks on 57 attempts in two full games, both of which were wins, including an impressive 7.1-YPA, two-TD, zero-INT showing against what was a stout Bengals defense, before tearing his ACL in the first quarter the following week.
This year, Hoyer has a YPA of 8.0, 10 TDs and only four interceptions. That YPA is fifth among the 25 passers with 150 or more attempts, just .25 YPA fewer than Peyton Manning, and ahead of Philip Rivers, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. While Hoyer has had some easy games on the schedule, notably the Steelers twice, the Bucs, the Jaguars, the Saints and the Raiders, consider his top-three targets are Andrew Hawkins, Miles Austin and rookie Taylor Gabriel.
Because the quarterback position is arguably the hardest to scout as it depends so heavily on reading defenses, making good split-second decisions and throwing accurately in the face of a rush, all nearly impossible to measure in a combine, NFL personnel evaluators so often get it wrong. That's how it's possible for three of the best quarterbacks of the last 15 years (Tom Brady, Kurt Warner and Tony Romo) each to slip past the fifth round of their respective drafts (only Brady was even drafted at all.)
While it's unlikely for Hoyer - or anyone (including this year's top QB pick, Bortles) - to have that kind of career, he's done nothing so far to preclude it. Now that Hoyer has some experience, the confidence of his coaches, and a presumably healthy Jordan Cameron and unsuspended Josh Gordon coming back soon, I'm curious to see how good he can be. Remember, Brady never put up world-beating stats until Randy Moss and peak Wes Welker arrived in 2007, and Warner slogged through years of mediocrity post-Rams with the Giants and as Matt Leinart's backup on the Cardinals.
Week 10 Observations
• If only Aaron Rodgers were the stat-padder that Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are, he would have sailed past the record of seven TD passes and probably gone for eight or nine. If I needed one QB in NFL history to win a game for me, I'd pick Rodgers.
• It was odd to see Cam Newton, Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and other key starters still in the Sunday and Monday night blowouts so late into the game. I get that NFL teams have an obligation to entertain the fans who bought tickets, but strategically it makes zero sense, and Marshall actually got hurt.
• Kelvin Benjamin had two TDs late, one of which cost me a matchup and probably prevented my 14-team-league squad - which has Le'Veon Bell, A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall and Josh Gordon - from having a shot at the playoffs. No matter how good your team might have been, it's got to get there first.
• Jonathan Stewart actually ran well Monday night, while DeAngelo Williams, who missed blocks, fumbled and was stuffed in short yardage was terrible. With a matchup against the Falcons and Newton looking worn down, Stewart is a decent start if you're stuck.
• Even though Jon Gruden beat it to death, Clay Matthews really did seem to excel in his new role as middle linebacker. He could be an IDP monster now that he's the team's main tackler as well as a coverage guy and pass rusher.
• Does Mark Sanchez's success Sunday night say more about: (1) Mark Sanchez; (2) the Jets; (3) Brian Schottenheimer; (4) Chip Kelly; (5) Nick Foles; or (6) the Panthers defense?
• The Chiefs have not allowed a rushing touchdown, and they haven't thrown a touchdown to a wide receiver all year. They were a little lucky to beat the Bills, aided in part by Doug Marrone punting on 4th and short in plus territory early and lining up to draw the Chiefs offsides on 4th-and-1 late, taking a false start penalty and punting like he would have done anyway. But Kansas City's defense is pretty good, and Alex Smith's combination of game management and scrambling is probably enough to get them into the playoffs.
• Jim Caldwell showed some courage faking punts and going for it (and converting) on 4th-and-6. Ryan Tannehill showed some poise, but the Lions defense was relentless.
• Damien Williams looked better than Lamar Miller. I'm not sure whether Miller's shoulder was the cause of his light workload, but Williams could supplant him.
• Jarvis Landry isn't as fast as Mike Wallace, but he might be the team's best receiver already. Charles Clay caught a lot of short passes and looks like he's back as a key component of the offense after battling injuries early on.
• The 49ers-Saints game was a tough one to handicap because the Saints almost never lose at home, but the 49ers didn't crumble last year after a bad start, and will get Aldon Smith and NaVorro Bowman back, so they know they have a chance if they can hang around.
• Most of the offensive PI Sunday was ticky-tack and unnecessarily called, but Jimmy Graham's shove of Perrish Cox on the Hail Mary would-be-game-winning TD was legit, Cox's sales job notwithstanding.
• Mark Ingram has 57 carries the last two weeks – this isn't a committee anymore, and I'm not sure that'll change too much even after Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas return, so long as Ingram's healthy.
• Marques Colston is the Wes Welker of the Saints right now, and that's not a good thing.
• Carlos Hyde is obviously better than Frank Gore, but the 49ers don't seem to care.
• The Jets caught the Steelers – cocky and coming off two huge wins – at the right time, and the Steelers caught New York – desperate and at home – at the wrong one. Turnovers kept the game from being competitive, but this was going to be a tough game for the Steelers regardless.
• The Martavis Bryant 80-yard TD was the ultimate garbage-time gift, something you almost never see with fewer than two minutes left in a game.
• Dez Bryant is the Rob Gronkowski of wide receivers, and that's a good thing. It's unlikely he's getting tackled one on one by a DB near the end zone.
• Whatever Rob Lowe got paid, it wasn't worth it.
• Julio Jones had plenty of targets, catches and yards, but it would be nice to see him find the end zone one of these months.
• For all the Sammy Watkins/Kelvin Benjamin talk, Mike Evans might lead rookie receivers in production at season's end.
• The Titans against anyone is an unwatchable game.
• The Giants are done, so it's really fairly painless to see them lose (though I was aghast they blew the cover in what was such a competitive game for three quarters.) Odell Beckham looks like a star, and Eli has actually been okay this year. They just have no running game, and the defense has fallen apart.
• Marshawn Lynch scored four TDs and made it look fairly easy. Giants tacklers bounced off him like he weighed 400 pounds.
• The Raiders were actually up 10-6 at once point. I suppose if games were 15 minutes long, there would be more volatility.
• Peyton Manning looked terrible early but still had 340 yards and five scores.
• Apparently Ronnie Hillman's weakness in pass-protection kept Julius Thomas in as a blocker for a few games. With Hillman hurt, Thomas scored twice Sunday. I'd assume C.J. Anderson and Montee Ball will split most of the carries in some capacity (Juwan Thompson is still around), but Thomas might be the biggest beneficiary of Hillman's injury.
• The Cardinals were actually losing 14-10 when Carson Palmer went down. But as soon as AZ got the lead, and Austin Davis had to throw, it's not surprising disaster ensued.
• It's a good thing Palmer signed that extension Friday. Oddly, his first ACL tear in Cincinnati was 10 days after he signed an extension there too.
