The Prospect Post: Duke's Future Lottery Picks

EVALUATING DUKE'S THREE FUTURE LOTTERY PICKS

This article aims to provide an ongoing evaluation of the NBA's rookie class from a fantasy standpoint while also offering deep dives on college players with bright futures. Projecting young talent is very subjective, so an open dialogue is encouraged, both in the comments section and on Twitter: @RealJRAnderson

On Tuesday, Duke, Kansas and Kentucky played their first games of the season against quality opponents, and it represented the first night of the college basketball season to get a good look at a half dozen future lottery picks. The stars on Kentucky and Kansas will be dissected in this space in the coming weeks/months, but Duke's trio of future lottery picks deserve their own article.

The Blue Devils beat Michigan State, 81-71, and as expected, three stud freshman led the way.

Jahlil Okafor

Okafor, is a 6-foot-11, 270-pound center, who was easily the No. 1 high school player in the country last season, and he's a lock to be the first player selected in the 2015 NBA Draft. The major takeaway from this first viewing of Okafor is that he is unstoppable when he gets the ball near the hoop. He finishes everything within six-to-seven feet of the hoop with ease, and at just 18 years old, he has more post moves than a lot of big men in the NBA. He is excellent at creating space with moves in the post, sometimes hooking his defender in a way that would get called as a foul in the NBA. College refs simply are not used to seeing someone as big and skilled as him, so while they missed some offensive fouls, they also called him for one where he was simply establishing post position because the defender could not handle Okafor's size. His teammates also struggled at times to get him the ball in one-on-one matchups, which is not an uncommon problem for collegiate big men. Oakfor's final line of 17 points (8-10 FG, 1-2 FT), five rebounds, one assist, two blocks and two steals in 30 minutes is a bit misleading. He did not appear to be an elite rim protector, as sometimes he was caught flat footed, but he will get a block or two almost every night simply because of his size and the lack of quality frontcourt players in college. He struggles to affect the game when he does not have the ball, but that will change as the season progresses.

FUTURE FANTASY VALUE: Okafor will be a Top-20 fantasy pick in his prime. Owners will be able to expect 20-plus points, 10-plus rebounds and a dominant field-goal percentage.
NBA DRAFT RANGE: He already has the No. 1 pick locked up.
COMP:Tim Duncan, but not as much of a defensive force.

Tyus Jones

Jones is a 6-foot-1, 190-pound true point guard, who is capable of being an NBA starter on a good team. He is the ideal point guard for a contender, because he does not need the ball, and is willing to let his more talented teammates dominate. He has a very calm, controlled demeanor, and carries himself like he belongs. Despite his size, he will never be labeled as scrappy. Jones knows exactly when to exert effort, and has excellent basketball instincts. He reminded me of James Harden in this manner. He is a good, not great, athlete for his size, and can blow by defenders at the college level with his first step. On one play where he burned his man, he was able to finish with ease while taking contact and converting the three-point play, although he may need to work on finishing with his off hand. The kid definitely has swag, and he did an Allen Iverson-esque step over of a fallen Michigan State player after the three-point play. He was a better shooter than i realized, at least in this game. Jones finished with 17 points (4-5 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 7-7 FT), four assists and two steals in 31 minutes.

FUTURE FANTASY VALUE: Jones should be a fourth round pick in his prime if everything works out. He will provide all of the typical point guard production, although none of it will be overwhelming -- assists, steals, three-pointers, excellent free-throw percentage -- and he will offer 15-17 points per game, with an above average field-goal percentage for the position.
NBA DRAFT RANGE: He will likely go to the first team outside of the top-5 that does not have a franchise point guard. This is someone who can be trusted with that position from day one.
COMP:Mike Conley

Justise Winslow

I knew what to expect with Okafor and Jones, and they did not disappoint, but I came away liking Winslow quite a bit. He is the type of player who your eyes just seem to naturally follow. There is no doubting his rawness in some areas of his game, but there is nothing he will be physically or mentally unable to do in the future. At 6-foot-7, 230 pounds, he has a very impressive body, and it will be crucial for him to work on conditioning, as adding much more mass would not be ideal. Winslow profiles as a good wing defender, capable of guarding the two and the three. On one play, he blocked his man's shot at the rim without ever getting beat. There will undoubtedly be people who think he is a small forward, but if he can maintain his current size, I like him as a two. He has a good motor, and was very active on both ends of the court. Winslow displayed good lift on his shot (he's a lefty), and should have no problem getting it off without much space. At times, he showed questionable decision making, trying to steal a rebound from his teammate (Okafor) on one possession, but that can easily be chalked up to a little too much aggression, which is not a bad thing at this stage. He has no problem getting to the basket, displaying a good enough handle for a wing player. At one point, he created his own fast break, going coast-to-coast on one play through traffic to finish at the other end. That said, he can also be a little out of control with the ball at times, and needs to work on finishing in traffic. Winslow finished the night with the most minutes (36) of the deadly freshman trio, scoring 15 points (4-11 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 6-9 FT) with six rebounds, three assists and one block.

FUTURE FANTASY VALUE: He should offer notable contributions in every category except assists, but his bread and butter will be scoring, rebounding and three-point shooting. His shooting percentages could be a little low, which may make him a fifth or sixth round pick in fantasy leagues in his prime.
NBA DRAFT RANGE: Winslow has the biggest range of the three Duke freshman, as he could play his way into the top-5 picks, or he could fail to refine his game, and appear to look in need of another year in college, at which point he probably would not go in the lottery. I'm betting he goes somewhere in the first 10 picks, based on his upside as a two-way player.
COMP:Jimmy Butler