This article is part of our Beat the Cap series.
Beat the Cap: Nostalgia, Checking Twice and a Bag of Pucks
Before we zigzag across a couple topics this week, I wanted to share a brief story of nostalgia. I recently came across a spreadsheet I used last year to track my DraftStreet contest results. Their $55 50/50 contest was my favorite. I miss the site, and I miss that contest.
It was usually an 18 to 24 team contest, and approximately 75 percent of the participants were consistent nightly. I'm not a poker player; however I would imagine it was similar to playing a weekly poker game with the same six buddies. Over a few weeks my opponents' tendencies became clear, and I could usually project a player's ownership percentage quite accurately.
My data collection consisted of the cap percent I spent on each position; the percentage of my lineup's total points from each position; the highest fantasy point total in the contest; and the lowest winning lineup's point total in the contest. I established point total targets for each position, a lineup point total target and assembled my lineups accordingly.
Serious daily players should track their results in some form, too. You should check for tendencies when you lose, at the very least. Expect to find poor goaltending performances and duds from high-priced players to be common features of failed lineups. However, taking the next step to identify why you choose those players and why they let you down is beneficial. It should improve your winning consistency over the long run.
Hopefully I stumble upon a similar contest in the future. DraftKings and FanDuel limit their contests to 10 entries at that price point, which is a little too small for comfort.
Checking Twice
Saturday evening reaffirmed the significance of a particular lineup assembly step for me. My father and I were finalizing our FantasyAces lineups, and David Pastrnak was a low-priced winger we had both selected earlier in the day. We were taking a flier and chasing the third wheel.
Pastrnak ended up being a healthy scratch Saturday, which I discovered 15 minutes before puck drop. Initially, it appeared a multiplayer swap would be required. However, David Clarkson had the same price tag as Pastrnak, and it was an easy swap. It shouldn't have been necessary in the first place, though.
Always check the other players priced at and around your selected players. Clarkson was the right choice from the beginning, especially considering we were playing in a 50/50 contest. Pastrnak has all kinds of upside, but Clarkson has a defined role and a solid floor for points to add to.
Clarkson ended up saving my roster, too. He had a goal, an assist, a plus-4 rating and three shots on net. His 7.75 points were huge, especially when Alex Ovechkin, Joe Pavelski and Tyler Johnson combined for 1.75.
You can over think your lineups and alter them endlessly, however it is almost always worth taking the time to consider your options. After you establish your lineup building blocks, check to see if there is another area where you can save to spend up elsewhere to improve your lineup's upside or raise its floor.
For example, is a mid-priced defenseman and mid-priced winger a better lineup fit than a high-priced defenseman and a low-priced winger? Weight those options with your lineup fillers. It is an important step when assembling your lineups.
A Bag of Pucks
Here are seven skaters to keep in mind when you're looking to save cap space for high-priced goalies and star forwards.
D Christian Ehrhoff, Pittsburgh: Ehrhoff has 12 shots over his last two games, and his value skyrockets with Kris Letang out of the lineup. However, with the injuries the Penguins are dealing with, Ehrhoff might maintain No. 1 power-play duty when Letang returns. He is currently underpriced.
D Aaron Ekblad, Florida: His price is set to jump and might by the time Florida takes the ice next; regardless, he is locked in right now. Ekblad has three goals and four assists, with 20 shots on net during a five-game point streak.
D Nick Leddy, New York: The Islanders are dealing with injuries on their blue line and Leddy has stepped up his play. He has four assists over his last three games and is manning the point on the No. 1 power-play unit.
C Mike Santorelli, Toronto: With 10 points over his last seven games, Santorelli is scorching hot. He is also passing the eye test on a nightly basis. He has joined the Leafs' second power-play unit and his ice time is on the rise.
RW Tom Wilson, Washington: The top-line winger has an assist in consecutive games and six penalty minutes. While his price is low, it is worth noting he has a single shot over his last three games and doesn't receive power-play minutes.
C Stephen Weiss, Detroit: There are two possible outcomes, either Weiss slows down or his price catches up to his production. In the meantime, he is a viable low-priced flier in daily contests.
RW Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay: Daily sites will price Kucherov appropriately at some point, or maybe they won't. He has 23 points this season and has been held pointless just three times the past 12 games, and his cap hit is minimal.
C Mathieu Perreault, Winnipeg: The talented pivot has four points over his last four games, and he has climbed the depth chart. Perreault has been skating on the team's second line for awhile and has joined the No. 1 power-play unit. His stock is on the rise.
If you have additional questions or would like to see anything specifically covered in Beat the Cap contact me in the comments below or via Twitter @naparker77.
