Survivor: Backing the Ravens

Let's take a look at Week 15 below:

Despite their heavy usage, the Ravens are the easy call here at home against the Jaguars if you have them. Otherwise, it's close between the Chiefs, Seahawks, Lions and Pats. As always this late in the year, you'll need to look at what other remaining entries have available to them and estimate the pot odds specific to your particular pool.

My Picks

1. Baltimore Ravens

Anything can happen in the NFL, but the Jaguars' offense is terrible, and the defense is below average. Baltimore is a tough place to play, and the Ravens are in a tough fight for a playoff spot. I give the Ravens a 91 percent chance to win this game.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

I'm torn between the Chiefs and the Seahawks - I actually like both this week, but as broken as the 49ers seem to me, I still fear them more than the Raiders, who should be fat and happy off last week's win. The Chiefs are desperate now, at home and should roll over an Oakland team that beat them in Oakland a few weeks ago. I give the Chiefs an 84 percent chance to win this game.

3. Seattle Seahawks

Colin Kaepernick looked awful last week as he has for much of the second half of the season, but we've seen what the Niners can do when they get it together - in fact they nearly knocked off last year's Super-Bowl dominating Seahawks in Seattle in the NFC title game. This isn't that same team, but if there's any game for which Niners would be up, it's this one. Even though I expect Seattle to win big, I think there's some danger here. I give the Seahawks an 80 percent chance to win this game.

4. New England Patriots

The Dolphins are a good team, and they should slug it out with the Pats, but New England is so tough at home, especially in December, I'd rather throw in my lot with them than the Lions who face a weaker opponent. I give the Patriots a 77 percent chance to win this game.

5. Detroit Lions

I should have taken them last week against Tampa, as their offense has turned a corner the last couple weeks, and the defense is still fairly stout. I don't think the Vikings are especially dangerous, though their defense isn't terrible and could capitalize if Matthew Stafford has a bad game. I give the Lions a 75 percent chance to win this game.

6. New York Giants

It's a little crazy taking the Giants here, but RGIII looks broken to me, and the Giants pass rush has shown some life against bad teams of late. The Redskins defense has been terrible against the pass too. I give the Giants a 73 percent chance to win this game.

7. Indianapolis Colts

The key for the Texans here is to bludgeon the Colts on the ground the way the Patriots did, and Houston has the personnel to do it. If Andrew Luck plays well, Indy should handle them anyway, especially with star CB Vontae Davis likely to be back from his concussion. I give the Colts a 72 percent chance to win this game.

8. St. Louis Rams

It's bizarre to see a last-place team favored over the first-place one in its own division by 4.5 points, but that's the case here. The Cardinals with Drew Stanton are a below-average offense, and their defense isn't especially good against the pass, either. I give the Rams a 68 percent chance to win this game.

Notable Omissions:

Green Bay Packers: Not that anyone has them available, but I don't like them in this spot, going against a stout Buffalo defense on the road. I think they'll probably win, but if the weather's bad, usually the defensive team has an advantage.

Carolina Panthers: Last week's win in New Orleans was impressive, but remember how bad the defense has been all year, and with no Cam Newton, I don't trust them, even at home against the Bucs.