This article is part of our On Target series.
This has not been the best redraft year for me. Teams that got Rob Gronkowski and Demaryius Thomas did better than others, but a number of misses left my teams scrapping for playoff spots. In general, this has been an interesting year in that there were less than a handful of options at running back who provided stability, and a good number of the wide receiver value came in the later rounds. The third round was a utter wasteland with Keenan Allen, Zac Stacy and Doug Martin among the busts in that tier. As a result of my own personal experience, this column is going to be begin to lead to daily fantasy analysis and looking at 2015.Looking at who has been an elite and the context in which they accumulated their statistics is a valuable exercise for fantasy. As such, here's a list of all players this season who have more than 800 receiving yards and seven touchdowns (or a 61 yard, .53 TD per game pace). I want to see how predictable those seasons were to figure out what we (read: I) might have missed.
| PLAYER | TARGETS | REC | YARDS | YPC | TD | YPG | REC% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 122 | 78 | 1265 | 16.22 | 12 | 97.3 | 63.9 |
| Antonio Brown | 149 | 105 | 1375 | 13.10 | 11 | 105.8 | 70.5 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 142 | 90 | 1266 | 14.07 | 10 | 97.4 | 63.4 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 125 | 74 | 1109 | 14.99 | 10 | 85.3 | 59.2 |
| Dez Bryant | 118 | 73 | 1034 | 14.16 | 10 | 79.5 | 61.9 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 113 | 73 | 997 | 13.66 | 10 | 76.7 | 64.6 |
| Randall Cobb | 95 | 69 | 980 | 14.20 | 10 | 75.4 | 72.6 |
| Mike Evans | 101 | 57 | 935 | 16.40 | 10 | 77.9 | 56.4 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 115 | 59 | 848 | 14.37 | 9 | 65.2 | 51.3 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 116 | 73 | 949 | 13.00 | 8 | 73.0 | 62.9 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 120 | 78 | 1295 | 16.60 | 7 | 99.6 | 65.0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 122 | 86 | 1208 | 14.05 | 7 | 92.9 | 70.5 |
Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, DT, Dez Bryant, Cobb and Alshon were properly accounted for by ADP. Nelson, one could argue, was a little discounted due to his expected production, but in most industry leagues he had an ADP early in the second round, which is likely where his value will end up.
Jeremy Maclin is the first player on this list who drafters didn't value appropriately. There were legit injury concerns with him coming back from a torn ACL, but more important, everyone seemed to believe that Nick Foles was a bad quarterback. Foles regressed in a pretty serious way this year, but what we learned more than anything is that the pieces don't matter as much as the role and the coach. Chip Kelly can make four players fantasy viable in an offense, and Maclin inherited the lead WR role when DeSean Jackson left. We should have placed more weight on his coach than anything else.
Rob Gronkowski wasn't discounted by me personally, but a number of people have deemed Gronk "injury prone." Other than that all of his injuries have been to different parts of his body, we shouldn't discount players as good as Gronkowski just based off an injury. Gronkowski is the most dominant pass catcher in the NFL, and his per game value is so much better than the second best player at his position (Jimmy Graham) that his ADP was a screaming value on draft day.
Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin both fell victim to the same discounts. Rookie WR have rarely posted WR2 or better seasons in NFL history. Randy Moss is the last WR to have 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in his rookie season, yet as it sits now, both KB and Evans are likely to reach that benchmark. Evans was discounted due to his concerns about his quarterback and offense; Benjamin due to his perceived skill level. Some aspect of their performance was not at all predictable because it bucked a historical trend, but in isolation, both of their skill sets and situations should have told us to expect usable fantasy numbers.
Hilton and Sanders were drafted in the fifth to sixth round are and will far out earn their draft day value. Hilton was seen as a tertiary option and an inconsistent deep threat. Sanders struggled to return any fantasy value while in Pittsburgh and was a clear No. 3 behind Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas. In Hilton's case, it should have been apparent that Reggie Wayne was on his last legs and Hakeem Nicks couldn't be relied upon for any production at all. Even if Hilton hasn't been efficient (he has not), the expected volume in an Andrew Luck offense should have tipped us off. Sanders was a plain miss by most drafters but, in particular, I didn't view him as an attractive option. He only scored 12 touchdowns in his Pittsburgh career, and Ben Roethlisberger is not a bad quarterback. The lesson? Peyton Manning wide receivers can be bad football players and good fantasy players.
