This article is part of our Weekly Pitcher Rankings series.
Welcome to the 2015 Pitching Value Meter. Each week I'll rank the projected starters across the league along with comments on those who have caught my eye. The comments will usually be statistically-focused, except we don't really have any stats for this week, so it's more general (identifying potential breakouts and the like).
As always, remember that rotations are subject to change, so if you see something that looks incorrect, assume that it was a change that occurred since this was written and feel free to politely bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.
For the week April 6-12
AMERICAN LEAGUE
START
| 1. Felix Hernandez - LAA, at OAK Note: Chance to fire a big bullet in division by facing the other top contenders |
| 2. David Price - MIN, at CLE |
| 3. Corey Kluber - at HOU, DET |
| 4. Jeff Samardzija - at KC, MIN Note: I'd worry about his spring (8.44 ERA) if a) I cared about ST numbers, and, more importantly, b) if he walked a ton (just 2 in 21.3 IP) |
| 5. Masahiro Tanaka - TOR, BOS Note: I understand Pedro's concern re: hesitation, but it causes misses to be low and out of the zone, which isn't a terrible place to miss |
| 6. Phil Hughes - at DET, at CWS |
| 7. Chris Archer - BAL, at MIA |
| 8. Yordano Ventura - CWS, at LAA |
| 9. Chris Sale - MIN Note: If he's pitching, assume he's healthy, in |
Welcome to the 2015 Pitching Value Meter. Each week I'll rank the projected starters across the league along with comments on those who have caught my eye. The comments will usually be statistically-focused, except we don't really have any stats for this week, so it's more general (identifying potential breakouts and the like).
SIT
NATIONAL LEAGUE
SIT
MLB TOP 100
As always, remember that rotations are subject to change, so if you see something that looks incorrect, assume that it was a change that occurred since this was written and feel free to politely bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.
For the week April 6-12
AMERICAN LEAGUE
START
| 1. Felix Hernandez - LAA, at OAK Note: Chance to fire a big bullet in division by facing the other top contenders |
| 2. David Price - MIN, at CLE |
| 3. Corey Kluber - at HOU, DET |
| 4. Jeff Samardzija - at KC, MIN Note: I'd worry about his spring (8.44 ERA) if a) I cared about ST numbers, and, more importantly, b) if he walked a ton (just 2 in 21.3 IP) |
| 5. Masahiro Tanaka - TOR, BOS Note: I understand Pedro's concern re: hesitation, but it causes misses to be low and out of the zone, which isn't a terrible place to miss |
| 6. Phil Hughes - at DET, at CWS |
| 7. Chris Archer - BAL, at MIA |
| 8. Yordano Ventura - CWS, at LAA |
| 9. Chris Sale - MIN Note: If he's pitching, assume he's healthy, in which case, yes, he's better than some two-start pitchers |
| 10. Drew Hutchison - at NYY, at BAL Note: Laid a nice foundation coming off TJS, appears poised for a breakout season |
| 11. Dallas Keuchel - CLE, at TEX |
| 12. Chris Tillman - at TB, TOR |
| 13. Michael Pineda - TOR Note: Never been about talent with him, only health |
| 14. Carlos Carrasco - at HOU Note: Skeptics feeling vindicated by ST (7.00 ERA in 9 IP) should definitely chill; skills are there |
| 15. Collin McHugh - at TEX Note: I buy quite a bit of his '14 breakout |
| 16. Sonny Gray - TEX, SEA Note: Down on Gray for '15 compared to the market; he's solid, but not an ace |
| 17. Anibal Sanchez - MIN |
| 18. Hisashi Iwakuma - LAA |
| 19. Derek Holland - HOU Note: Lost 2014 curbed value, but don't forget how good he was in '13: 3.42 ERA, 21-percent K rate in 213 IP |
| 20. Jose Quintana - at KC |
| 21. Scott Kazmir - TEX |
| 22. Taijuan Walker - at OAK Note: Everything is in place for a huge breakout |
| 23. Nathan Eovaldi - BOS |
| 24. Rick Porcello - at PHI |
| 25. Drew Pomeranz - SEA Note: Stifled his own breakout last year by punching a chair; maturity + skill = huge breakout in '15 |
| 26. Shane Greene - MIN Note: Has the stuff for a big season, especially if the changeup we saw in ST is real |
| 27. James Paxton - LAA |
| 28. Jesse Hahn - TEX, SEA |
| 29. Jered Weaver - at SEA, KC Note: Nerve-wracking to trust his 46 MPH fastball, but he makes it work |
| 30. Danny Duffy - CWS Note: Just because his 2014 ERA (2.53) was a bit of a mirage (3.83 FIP) doesn't mean he lacks the tools to turn in a more "believable" effort with skills to support it |
| 31. R.A. Dickey - at NYY |
| 32. Matt Shoemaker - at SEA Note: I believe the 4-percent BB rate much more than the 23-percent K rate |
| 33. Trevor Bauer - at HOU Note: Raw results don't show it (4.18 ERA), but he took a big step in '14 |
| 34. Wei-Yin Chen - at TB, TOR |
| 35. Nate Karns - BAL, at MIA Note: Hate how he got his spot (injuries to Cobb, Smyly), but I think he can make good on the chance |
| 36. Kyle Gibson - at CWS |
| 37. Justin Verlander - at CLE Note: Just can't get behind the notion that he's toast |
| 38. Jake Odorizzi - BAL |
| 39. Wade Miley - at NYY Note: Took a big K jump in '14 to 21 percent, which could go even higher thanks to his slider |
| 40. Yovani Gallardo - at OAK, HOU |
| 41. Justin Masterson - at PHI Note: A good week to stream him |
| 42. Miguel Gonzalez - at TB |
| 43. Kendall Graveman - SEA Note: Could be the AL's version of 2014 Henderson Alvarez |
| 44. Clay Buchholz - at PHI, at NYY Note: Not a fan and never have been, but a start against PHI is almost an auto-start for '15 |
| 45. J.A. Happ - at OAK |
SIT
| 46. Daniel Norris - at NYY Note: Want to see something when it counts before starting the young lefty |
| 47. T.J. House - DET Note: Like him for the year, but this is a tough first draw |
| 48. Ricky Nolasco - at DET Note: Can start him with some regularity in '15, but not with this matchup |
| 49. Adam Warren - BOS |
| 50. Bud Norris - TOR Note: Even if I bought last year's 3.65 ERA, TOR lineup is basically auto-sit for non-studs |
| 51. Jason Vargas - at LAA |
| 52. Aaron Sanchez - at BAL |
| 53. Erasmo Ramirez - at MIA |
| 54. Zach McAllister - DET Note: That fancy spring (2.84 ERA, 7.0 K:BB) came against essentially Triple-A talent according to BRef |
| 55. C.J. Wilson - at SEA, KC |
| 56. Alfredo Simon - at CLE |
| 57. Joe Kelly - at NYY Note: Supposed to be ready in time for this start |
| 58. Mark Buehrle - at BAL |
| 59. Edinson Volquez - CWS |
| 60. CC Sabathia - TOR Note: It could get really ugly against the Jays for CC |
| 61. John Danks - at KC |
| 62. Hector Noesi - MIN |
| 63. Scott Feldman - CLE |
| 64. Asher Wojciechowski - CLE |
| 65. Hector Santiago - KC |
| 66. Tommy Milone - at CWS |
| 67. Ross Detwiler - at OAK |
| 68. Nick Martinez - at OAK |
| 69. Roberto Hernandez - at TEX |
| 70. Mike Pelfrey - at DET |
| 71. Jeremy Guthrie - at LAA |
| 72. Colby Lewis - at OAK, HOU |
NATIONAL LEAGUE
START
| 1. Clayton Kershaw - SD, at ARI |
| 2. Max Scherzer - NYM, at PHI Note: If we allow the idea of someone dethroning Kershaw, Scherzer seems quite plausible |
| 3. Johnny Cueto - PIT, STL |
| 4. Zack Greinke - SD, at ARI |
| 5. Cole Hamels - BOS, WAS Note: Faces his future team right off the bat! |
| 6. Julio Teheran - at MIA, NYM Note: Wins might be light, but everything else will be on point |
| 7. Madison Bumgarner - at ARI, at SD |
| 8. Alex Wood - at MIA, NYM |
| 9. James Shields - at LAD, SF Note: Shifting to the NL and Petco likely will hide any skills degradation |
| 10. Tyson Ross - at LAD, SF |
| 11. Matt Harvey - at WAS Note: Sale showed that you don't need 200-plus IP to be among the super-elites (6th with 174 IP) |
| 12. Stephen Strasburg - NYM |
| 13. Jordan Zimmermann - NYM |
| 14. Gio Gonzalez - at PHI Note: Don't sleep on the forgotten Nat |
| 15. Michael Wacha - at CIN Note: Scherzer might be the obvious answer to "who could dethrone Kershaw," but Wacha, Cole are darkhorses |
| 16. Gerrit Cole - at CIN |
| 17. Jacob deGrom - at WAS |
| 18. Francisco Liriano - at CIN, at MIL Note: ERA, Ks will be there when healthy |
| 19. Kyle Lohse - COL, PIT |
| 20. Henderson Alvarez - ATL, TB Note: Skeptical of 2.65 ERA for sure, but this is a juicy opening slate |
| 21. Adam Wainwright - at CIN Note: K drop feels legit; without a 220-plus IP workload, not a fantasy ace because Ks won't be there |
| 22. Lance Lynn - at CHC |
| 23. John Lackey - at CHC |
| 24. Jake Arrieta - STL, at COL Note: Don't love that at COL, but still starting him |
| 25. Doug Fister - at PHI |
| 26. Andrew Cashner - at LAD Note: Strikeouts are in there, the stuff is too good |
| 27. Jason Hammel - STL |
| 28. Ian Kennedy - SF |
| 29. Jon Lester - at COL Note: Still being stretched out, so could be on a tight count in a tough venue |
| 30. Mat Latos - ATL |
| 31. Wily Peralta - COL |
| 32. Shelby Miller - at MIA Note: Tough '14, but don't sleep on that substantial talent |
| 33. Jake Peavy - at ARI, at SD Note: Won't do a full season of 2.17 ERA with SF, but will be solid |
| 34. Matt Cain - at ARI |
| 35. Mike Fiers - PIT |
| 36. Tom Koehler - ATL Note: Koehler, Haren, Cosart get value boosts by playing so many games vs. ATL, PHI |
| 37. Jon Niese - at ATL Note: So do Niese, Gee, Colon for that matter |
| 38. Dillon Gee - at ATL |
| 39. Brandon McCarthy - SD Note: Ride these next three until they break ... and they almost certainly will at some point, unfortunately |
| 40. Brett Anderson - at ARI |
| 41. Brandon Morrow - SF |
| 42. Mike Leake - PIT |
| 43. A.J. Burnett - at CIN Note: ERA might not return all the way to old PIT ways, but it'll be about a run better than last year's 4.59 |
| 44. Anthony DeSclafani - PIT |
| 45. Tim Hudson - at SD |
| 46. Dan Haren - TB |
| 47. Chase Anderson - LAD |
| 48. Bartolo Colon - at WAS, at ATL Note: This is a spot where two starts can hurt as the first might put large burden on the second |
| 49. Josh Collmenter - SF, LAD |
| 50. Rubby de la Rosa - SF |
| 51. Jarred Cosart - TB Note: Shaky bet overall, but odds are in his favor vs. TB :sunglasses emoji: |
| 52. Jeremy Hellickson - SF |
| 53. Archie Bradley - LAD Note: Surprised not more hype around his winning a spot |
| 54. Matt Garza - COL |
| 55. Jimmy Nelson - PIT |
| 56. David Buchanan - WAS Note: One of my off-the-radar starters who I think can be pretty solid this year |
SIT
| 57. Carlos Martinez - at CIN |
| 58. Raisel Iglesias - STL Note: Intrigued by him for the season, but I'll wait-and-see for this first start |
| 59. Jeff Locke - at MIL |
| 60. Tim Lincecum - at SD Note: These aren't the Padres he likes to no-hit |
| 61. Charlie Morton - at MIL |
| 62. Tyler Matzek - CHC |
| 63. Eric Stults - NYM |
| 64. Jason Marquis - STL Note: 0 MLB IP in 2014 ... which is exactly how many he should throw for your fantasy team in 2015 |
| 65. Eddie Butler - at MIL |
| 66. Aaron Harang - BOS |
| 67. Jerome Williams - BOS |
| 68. Sean O'Sullivan - WAS |
| 69. Travis Wood - at COL Note: This could be hilarious |
| 70. Jordan Lyles - at MIL, CHC |
| 71. Kyle Kendrick - at MIL, CHC |
MLB TOP 100
| 1. Clayton Kershaw - SD, at ARI |
| 2. Max Scherzer - NYM, at PHI Note: If we allow the idea of someone dethroning Kershaw, Scherzer seems quite plausible |
| 3. Felix Hernandez - LAA, at OAK Note: Chance to fire a big bullet in division by facing the other top contenders |
| 4. David Price - MIN, at CLE |
| 5. Corey Kluber - at HOU, DET |
| 6. Jeff Samardzija - at KC, MIN Note: I'd worry about his spring (8.44 ERA) if a) I cared about ST numbers, and, more importantly, b) if he walked a ton (just 2 in 21.3 IP) |
| 7. Johnny Cueto - PIT, STL |
| 8. Zack Greinke - SD, at ARI |
| 9. Cole Hamels - BOS, WAS Note: Faces his future team right off the bat! |
| 10. Julio Teheran - at MIA, NYM Note: Wins might be light, but everything else will be on point |
| 11. Madison Bumgarner - at ARI, at SD |
| 12. Alex Wood - at MIA, NYM |
| 13. James Shields - at LAD, SF Note: Shifting to the NL and Petco likely will hide any skills degradation |
| 14. Tyson Ross - at LAD, SF |
| 15. Masahiro Tanaka - TOR, BOS Note: I understand Pedro's concern re: hesitation, but it causes misses to be low and out of the zone, which isn't a terrible place to miss |
| 16. Matt Harvey - at WAS Note: Sale showed that you don't need 200-plus IP to be among the super-elites (6th with 174 IP) |
| 17. Stephen Strasburg - NYM |
| 18. Jordan Zimmermann - NYM |
| 19. Phil Hughes - at DET, at CWS |
| 20. Chris Archer - BAL, at MIA |
| 21. Yordano Ventura - CWS, at LAA |
| 22. Gio Gonzalez - at PHI Note: Don't sleep on the forgotten Nat |
| 23. Michael Wacha - at CIN Note: Scherzer might be the obvious answer to "who could dethrone Kershaw," but Wacha, Cole are darkhorses |
| 24. Gerrit Cole - at CIN |
| 25. Chris Sale - MIN Note: If he's pitching, assume he's healthy, in which case, yes, he's better than some two-start pitchers |
| 26. Drew Hutchison - at NYY, at BAL Note: Laid a nice foundation coming off TJS, appears poised for a breakout season |
| 27. Dallas Keuchel - CLE, at TEX |
| 28. Chris Tillman - at TB, TOR |
| 29. Michael Pineda - TOR Note: Never been about talent with him, only health |
| 30. Carlos Carrasco - at HOU Note: Skeptics feeling vindicated by ST (7.00 ERA in 9 IP) should definitely chill; skills are there |
| 31. Collin McHugh - at TEX Note: I buy quite a bit of his '14 breakout |
| 32. Jacob deGrom - at WAS |
| 33. Francisco Liriano - at CIN, at MIL Note: ERA, Ks will be there when healthy |
| 34. Kyle Lohse - COL, PIT |
| 35. Henderson Alvarez - ATL, TB Note: Skeptical of 2.65 ERA for sure, but this is a juicy opening slate |
| 36. Adam Wainwright - at CIN Note: K drop feels legit; without a 220-plus IP workload, not a fantasy ace because Ks won't be there |
| 37. Lance Lynn - at CHC |
| 38. John Lackey - at CHC |
| 39. Jake Arrieta - STL, at COL Note: Don't love that at COL, but still starting him |
| 40. Doug Fister - at PHI |
| 41. Andrew Cashner - at LAD Note: Strikeouts are in there, the stuff is too good |
| 42. Sonny Gray - TEX, SEA Note: Down on Gray for '15 compared to the market; he's solid, but not an ace |
| 43. Anibal Sanchez - MIN |
| 44. Hisashi Iwakuma - LAA |
| 45. Derek Holland - HOU Note: Lost 2014 curbed value, but don't forget how good he was in '13: 3.42 ERA, 21-percent K rate in 213 IP |
| 46. Jose Quintana - at KC |
| 47. Scott Kazmir - TEX |
| 48. Taijuan Walker - at OAK Note: Everything is in place for a huge breakout |
| 49. Nathan Eovaldi - BOS |
| 50. Rick Porcello - at PHI |
| 51. Drew Pomeranz - SEA Note: Stifled his own breakout last year by punching a chair; maturity + skill = huge breakout in '15 |
| 52. Shane Greene - MIN Note: Has the stuff for a big season, especially if the changeup we saw in ST is real |
| 53. James Paxton - LAA |
| 54. Jesse Hahn - TEX, SEA |
| 55. Jered Weaver - at SEA, KC Note: Nerve-wracking to trust his 46 MPH fastball, but he makes it work |
| 56. Jason Hammel - STL |
| 57. Ian Kennedy - SF |
| 58. Jon Lester - at COL Note: Still being stretched out, so could be on a tight count in a tough venue |
| 59. Mat Latos - ATL |
| 60. Wily Peralta - COL |
| 61. Shelby Miller - at MIA Note: Tough '14, but don't sleep on that substantial talent |
| 62. Jake Peavy - at ARI, at SD Note: Won't do a full season of 2.17 ERA with SF, but will be solid |
| 63. Matt Cain - at ARI |
| 64. Mike Fiers - PIT |
| 65. Tom Koehler - ATL Note: Koehler, Haren, Cosart get value boosts by playing so many games vs. ATL, PHI |
| 66. Jon Niese - at ATL Note: So do Niese, Gee, Colon for that matter |
| 67. Dillon Gee - at ATL |
| 68. Brandon McCarthy - SD Note: Ride these next three until they break ... and they almost certainly will at some point, unfortunately |
| 69. Brett Anderson - at ARI |
| 70. Brandon Morrow - SF |
| 71. Mike Leake - PIT |
| 72. Danny Duffy - CWS Note: Just because his 2014 ERA (2.53) was a bit of a mirage (3.83 FIP) doesn't mean he lacks the tools to turn in a more "believable" effort with skills to support it |
| 73. R.A. Dickey - at NYY |
| 74. Matt Shoemaker - at SEA Note: I believe the 4-percent BB rate much more than the 23-percent K rate |
| 75. Trevor Bauer - at HOU Note: Raw results don't show it (4.18 ERA), but he took a big step in '14 |
| 76. Wei-Yin Chen - at TB, TOR |
| 77. Nate Karns - BAL, at MIA Note: Hate how he got his spot (injuries to Cobb, Smyly), but I think he can make good on the chance |
| 78. Kyle Gibson - at CWS |
| 79. Justin Verlander - at CLE Note: Just can't get behind the notion that he's toast |
| 80. A.J. Burnett - at CIN Note: ERA might not return all the way to old PIT ways, but it'll be about a run better than last year's 4.59 |
| 81. Anthony DeSclafani - PIT |
| 82. Jake Odorizzi - BAL |
| 83. Wade Miley - at NYY Note: Took a big K jump in '14 to 21 percent, which could go even higher thanks to his slider |
| 84. Tim Hudson - at SD |
| 85. Dan Haren - TB |
| 86. Chase Anderson - LAD |
| 87. Bartolo Colon - at WAS, at ATL Note: This is a spot where two starts can hurt as the first might put large burden on the second |
| 88. Yovani Gallardo - at OAK, HOU |
| 89. Justin Masterson - at PHI Note: A good week to stream him |
| 90. Miguel Gonzalez - at TB |
| 91. Kendall Graveman - SEA Note: Could be the AL's version of 2014 Henderson Alvarez |
| 92. Clay Buchholz - at PHI, at NYY Note: Not a fan and never have been, but a start against PHI is almost an auto-start for '15 |
| 93. J.A. Happ - at OAK |
| 94. Josh Collmenter - SF, LAD |
| 95. Rubby de la Rosa - SF |
| 96. Jarred Cosart - TB Note: Shaky bet overall, but odds are in his favor vs. TB :sunglasses emoji: |
| 97. Jeremy Hellickson - SF |
| 98. Archie Bradley - LAD Note: Surprised not more hype around his winning a spot |
| 99. Matt Garza - COL |
| 100. Jimmy Nelson - PIT |
