This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
The Phillies are the early favorite for the 2016 No. 1 overall draft pick
It's pretty much Cole Hamels and a bunch of question marks for the Philadelphia rotation, so when the ace gets shelled for four home runs in an 8-0 Opening Day loss to Boston, that's a bit concerning. Hamels did strike out six in five innings and should be fine, but 100 losses looks like a possibility. Expect Chase Utley, Jonathan Papelbon and Hamels to be dealt come July. This is an organization with a poor 25-man depth chart and a mediocre farm system. We've seen the Braves press the reset button this offseason, and while the Phillies' trade assets aren't as attractive, these guys at least have some value. From a fantasy perspective, I am intrigued by starting center fielder and No. 2 hitter Odubel Herrera, mainly because I know little about him. Herrera has no power, but he swiped 21 bags with a .373 minor league OBP last year, and with the Phillies looking toward the future, he should get a shot.
This is Mike Moustakas' time
Like the old Smiths song goes, stop me if you think you've heard this one before. Here is what Moustakas has managed in the last three spring training schedules:
2013: .394/.429/.718
2014: .429/.522/.768
2015: .333/.394/.517
Maybe Arizona should try to swing a trade, as Moustakas
The Phillies are the early favorite for the 2016 No. 1 overall draft pick
It's pretty much Cole Hamels and a bunch of question marks for the Philadelphia rotation, so when the ace gets shelled for four home runs in an 8-0 Opening Day loss to Boston, that's a bit concerning. Hamels did strike out six in five innings and should be fine, but 100 losses looks like a possibility. Expect Chase Utley, Jonathan Papelbon and Hamels to be dealt come July. This is an organization with a poor 25-man depth chart and a mediocre farm system. We've seen the Braves press the reset button this offseason, and while the Phillies' trade assets aren't as attractive, these guys at least have some value. From a fantasy perspective, I am intrigued by starting center fielder and No. 2 hitter Odubel Herrera, mainly because I know little about him. Herrera has no power, but he swiped 21 bags with a .373 minor league OBP last year, and with the Phillies looking toward the future, he should get a shot.
This is Mike Moustakas' time
Like the old Smiths song goes, stop me if you think you've heard this one before. Here is what Moustakas has managed in the last three spring training schedules:
2013: .394/.429/.718
2014: .429/.522/.768
2015: .333/.394/.517
Maybe Arizona should try to swing a trade, as Moustakas sure seems to like hitting in the desert. Moved into the No. 2 spot in the lineup this year, Moustakas opened with a 2-3, BB, HR Opening Day to kickstart what should finally be his breakout season. If you're looking for reasons for optimism based on his 2014 season, Moustakas improved his walk rate from 6.2 to 7.0 percent and his strikeout rate from 16.1 to a solid 14.8 percent. He also suffered from a .223 BABIP that should improve and drive his average up in 2015. The key will be performing better against LHP (4-for-13 against them this spring) and being more selective at the plate. Either way, this guy was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2007 draft for a reason, and I think he'll finally show why this year.
Maybe the Rockies won't be that bad after all
Monday's 10-0 win over Milwaukee was impressive on a few fronts -- Kyle Kendrick's seven shutout innings, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki combining to go 5-for-9. Corey Dickerson drove in four runs as he looks to prove 2014 wasn't a fluke, but the most impressive player I saw yesterday was Nolan Arenado. The third baseman is already an elite defender, but his bat isn't bad either, as Arenado went 3-for-4 with three runs, a double, home run and four RBI. Three times he came up with RISP, and three times he got them home. Arenado put up a .287/.328/.500 slash last year, so the power is already there (.213 ISO). He makes good contact with a 12.4 K% last year, and the real growth should come via improved plate discipline. Last year's 5.4 BB% was well below average, but at least was an improvement on 2013's 4.5 percent. He needs to get that more in the 7-8 percent range this year to take that next step, but it wouldn't surprise me if Arenado pushed Adrian Beltre and Josh Donaldson for top fantasy third baseman honors this year. The pitching, of course, is the big question, but the Rockies do have Jon Gray that they can bring up at some point, and pitchers like Tyler Matzek and Eddie Butler at least have some promise.
The Blue Jays and Red Sox will both make the playoffs
Marcus Stroman (knee) was a big loss, but the Blue Jays look really, really strong. That lineup is deep and talented after having added Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson this offseason. Dalton Pompey is the new center fielder and a dark-horse candidate for AL Rookie of the Year. Don't underestimate the impact that Devon Travis can make on this lineup. After the likes of Ryan Goins and Munenori Kawasaki "led" Toronto second baseman to a combined .247/.295/.340 last year, Travis, who came from Detroit in the Anthony Gose deal, went 1-for-2 with a home run and two walks Monday while hitting out of the nine hole. Travis needs to make a good early impression to avoid losing time once Maicer Izturis (groin) returns. So far so good. Travis hit 10 home runs and stole 16 bases in 100 Double-A games last year, so don't sleep on his upside.
Wil Myers looks to be a sneaky source of steals
Myers already has two stolen bases hitting out of the leadoff spot in San Diego and that's with him going just 1-for-8 in the season's first two games. Myers had 11 steals in 175 previous big league games, so he's not exactly a bases-clogging slugger, but this is still surprising. Myers had just a .294 OBP last year, so it remains to be seen how long a leash he'll get as a leadoff man, but he had a .354 OBP as a rookie, which offers hope. Maybe he steals 15 instead of our projected nine.
Anthony Gose should play every day
After sitting out the opener in favor of Rajai Davis (0-for-3), Gose was atop the lineup Wednesday and promptly fell a homer short of the cycle in a 3-for-6 effort. Gose had a solid spring, batting .299/.356/.448 with six stolen bases and three triples. The speedy outfielder stole as many as 76 bases in the minors, so hitting atop a lineup that includes Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and others is an attractive fantasy asset. Davis hit a robust .356 against lefties last year to Gose's .180 (9-for-50), so this will probably start as a strict platoon situation. Either way, Gose should play enough to easily swipe 30 bases. Gose is 10 years younger and I'd like to see him play every day, but the platoon situation makes sense.
As the Closers Change
We've already seen a handful of shakeups in teams' closer situation since the start of the season (or just before):
• Atlanta - Jason Grilli took over for the traded Craig Kimbrel. Jim Johnson is next in line and worth some NL-only FAAB.
• San Diego - Craig Kimbrel displaced Joaquin Benoit.
• N.Y. Mets - Jeurys Familia replaced the injured Jenrry Mejia (arm). Carlos Torres probably is next in line.
• Detroit - Joakim Soria replaced the injured Joe Nathan (flexor strain).
Edward Mujica will continue to fill in for Koji Uehara (hamstring), though the Red Sox are targeting Monday for Uehara's return. ... Chris Hatcher imploded in the season's second game after recording the save in the opening subbing for Kenley Jansen (foot), so who knows who's next up in LA. Maybe Paco Rodriguez or possibly Joel Peralta. ... Things are still uncertain in the Bronx, though my money is on Dellin Betances over Andrew Miller. ... In Arizona, Addison Reed is reporting that his sore shoulder is no longer bothering him, but Evan Marshall is worth an add anyways in deeper formats.
As for predicting the next closer to lose his job, I'm going with Fernando Rodney. Rodney posted a 9:7 K:BB in 8.1 innings this spring and walked a batter in his first regular-season appearance. For Rodney, when he's locating, he's tough, but when he's not, it can get ugly. With all the walks we've seen this year to date, it's possible that his former erratic self has returned:
| YEAR | BB/9 | ERA |
| 2011 | 7.9 | 4.50 |
| 2012 | 1.8 | 0.60 |
| 2013 | 4.9 | 3.38 |
| 2014 | 3.8 | 2.85 |
Which of these years is not like the others?
Surprise pitching performances
We've already seen a few starting pitchers get off to great starts, albeit after just one of what they hope will be 30-plus starts. Here are a few of the more surprising ones and what to expect.
Jordan Lyles, COL (6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2:1 K:BB) - With a 6.2 K/9 and 5.07 ERA for his career, Lyles is probably never going to be a super-enticing fantasy option, but of all the Rockies starters, I'm optimistic on him the most. He has solid control (career 2.9 BB/9). Much of the optimism comes from his 49.5 GB% and that fact that his career FIP is an improvement on his ERA at 4.45. He's also still just 24, and after a 2.01 ERA this spring should be the Rockies' most reliable starter. Buying.
Kyle Kendrick, COL (7 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 6:0 K:BB) - Not bad for a guy coming off back-to-back 4.60-plus ERA seasons who took until February this year to sign. Kendrick has been the epitome of an unexciting innings-eater in his career, and it's safe to say this likely will be his first and only Opening Day start in his career. If Kendrick were a ground-ball pitcher, perhaps I could have some optimism here, but with a 1.1 HR/9 for his career and a GB/FB ratio of 1.2 last year to go with a fastball that averages 89.3 mph, Kendrick's command is going to have to be spot on night in and night out for him to avoid a 4.50-5.00 ERA. I just don't see that happening. Not buying.
Clay Buchholz, BOS (7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 9:1 K:BB) - The potential has always been there, but Buchholz is now 30 and due to myriad injuries, he's yet to throw even 190 innings in a single season. Last year he did manage 170.1, but it came with a 5.34 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. His velocity has declined a bit in recent years, though it seemed to stabilize last year. Buchholz is no longer has "ace" upside, but as we say at least for one day, he can be a solid No 2. Buying.
Colby Lewis, TEX (6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4:2 K:BB) - Lewis' career took a turn for the worse last year, as his ERA rose from 3.43 to 5.18 due in large part to a BB/9 that went from 1.2 to 2.5. The latter is still a good number, but Lewis can't afford many free passes given his less than stellar stuff and his always mediocre HR/9 rate (1.3 in each of the last two years, 1.3 career). It's hard to imagine the 35-year-old posting these sort of results all that often. Not buying.
C.J. Wilson, LAA (8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2:1 K:BB) - Wilson has posted a BB/9 ranging from 3.6 to 4.4 as an Angel the last three years, resulting in his free-agent contract being pretty much classified as a bust. Wilson managed a 2.31 ERA this spring, but he was pretty lucky in reality, as in his 11.2 innings, Wilson allowed a .292 BA with a 7:6 K:BB. Maybe if things break right, he can get his ERA back in the low 4.00's, but a return to his glory days of a sub-3.00 ERA, 200-plus Ks and 16-plus wins seems unlikely. Not buying.
