Series to Watch: Jays vs. Orioles

Welcome to the first installment in a brand new column here at RotoWire, highlighting the most intriguing series of the weekend from a fantasy perspective. These are the games that are loaded with high-impact players, and the emphasis on a single series is not only convenient with the weekend schedule but also consistent with the competitive landscape that these players deal with on an everyday basis.

The American League East is setting up to be a grudge match, and the Blue Jays added some serious firepower with the offseason acquisition of Josh Donaldson. The Orioles are reigning division champs but they are dealing with the offseason losses of Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis. I picked these two ball clubs to finish in the top two spots in the AL East this season, and though the loss of Marcus Stroman was a gut-shot to the Jays, the O's may have shot themselves in the foot by shuttling phenom Kevin Gausman to the bullpen in favor of the overly-compensated Ubaldo Jimenez. There is real-life drama surrounding the mountain of fantasy intrigue in this series, with lineups that are chock-full of players salivating at the opportunity to take aim at the cozy environs of Camden Yards. Let's take a look.

Game 1, April 10, 3:05pm EST: Mark Buehrle vs. Bud Norris

His stat line may not be sexy, but Buehrle is one of the most entertaining pitchers to watch. He works incredibly fast, pitches to contact, and succeeds despite a Moyer-esque fastball. Superficially working against Buehrle is a Baltimore lineup that is loaded with right-handed bats, but the context works in his favor, as the right-handers in the Orioles lineup have minimal platoon splits (or in the case of Adam Jones, a reverse split). He'll have to watch out for Steve Pearce, but the muting of Chris Davis' bat makes it a wash.

Norris has fastball velocity that is 10 mph harder than that of his counterpart, and that velocity has been trending upward over the past few seasons. He posted a better-than-average walk rate for the first time in his career last season, but his penchant for the longball remained intact. Norris is essentially a fastball-slider guy who brings his change-up for show-and-tell when a lefty is at the plate, and his approach is to keep pelting the outside the zone, away from the hitter. That repertoire could play well against a Toronto lineup that is vulnerable to the slider, but he will have to stay ahead in the count and avoid catching too much dish with fastballs.

Game 2, April 11, 7:05pm EST: Aaron Sanchez vs. Ubaldo Jimenez

If you only watch one game from this series, then this is the one. After struggling with mechanics and consistency in the minor leagues, Sanchez seemed to have found a home in a relief role, but injuries have forced him back into the starting rotation. This will be the right-hander's first major-league start following 24 appearances out of the bullpen, and it will be interesting to see if he makes any changes to his repertoire. A focal point of his mechanics has been Sanchez's speed to the plate, with the team having slowed him down to a glacial pace at one point during his minor-league development. He sped up a bit from the bullpen, and I will be curious to see whether he has a repeatable pace of momentum Saturday, as it ties directly to his pitch command. There is considerable upside here, but odds are good that the Jays will limit his pitch count and go to their bullpen early.

Ubaldo Jimenez has one of the goofiest deliveries in the game, and he constantly struggles to repeat the positioning and timing of his motion. If you want to have a laugh, then observe Ubaldo's lift leg during his stride, noting where it lands. Jimenez has what I call a "saloon door" stride pattern, in which his lead leg suddenly swings open prior to the front foot hitting the ground. His landing spot tends to be all over the place, turning the mound into a mine field, and that inconsistency is why he can't be trusted from a fantasy standpoint. He is prone to walks, elevated pitches, hard-hit balls and crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

Game 3, April 12, Drew Hutchison vs Chris Tillman, 1:35pm EST

The number one's face-off in the potential rubber match of this series. Hutchison is the most intriguing pitcher on either club, coming off of a season in which he struck out a batter per inning and had a K/BB better than 3.0. His run prevention was less impressive, with an escalated homer rate and 4.48 ERA, but the underlying indicators were all pointing in his favor. He spun a gem on Opening Day, allowing one run over six innings in Yankee Stadium en route to the win, and the Jays are likely to extend his leash over 100 pitches in his second start of the year.

Tillman has one of the tallest release points in the game, so if you want to see what scouts mean by "downhill plane," then tune in on Sunday. The strikeouts are unimpressive, but Tillman has managed an ERA+ of 110 or higher for three straight seasons, this despite a frighteningly high rate of homers allowed through his career. Game 3 might be the best opportunity to see slugging Blue Jays do their yard work.

Toronto

Jose Bautista – Joey Bats had a brutal series to start the season, going 0-for-12 with eight whiffs in three games against the Yankees. A dozen plate appearances is nothing so I'll give him a mulligan, particularly following his monster spring (.319/.429/.725). The notorious pull hitter will have ample opportunity to get back on track this weekend, facing a trio of pitchers that struggle to keep the ball in the yard, in a park that has generally been conducive to deep flies.

Edwin Encarnacion – I like to think of the strike zone as a telephone keypad, with zones marked 1-9 from the upper left to the lower right; against right-handed pitchers Encarnacion absolutely owns keypad number 6. As Masahiro Tanaka found out on Opening Day, E-5 crushes pitches that are left belt high on the inner-third of the plate, with a career slugging percentage of .862 in that sector of the strike zone. Orioles pitchers, you've been warned.

Josh Donaldson – My preseason pick for AL MVP, Donaldson has the advantage of hitting behind two of the game's biggest sluggers. Some might worry that Bautista and Encarnacion will clean the bases themselves prior to Donaldson coming to the plate, but the number three and four hitters are on-base machines who will keep ducks on the pond for Donaldson to pile up the RBI. Donaldson has a swing that is tailor-made for line drives, completing an intimidating trio of right-handed mashers in the middle of the Toronto lineup.

Stolen Bases – Expect Jose Reyes and Dalton Pompey to stay chained to the first base bag on Sunday. Baltimore starter Chris Tillman has allowed just two successful steals in 13 attempts (15.4%) over the last two seasons combined. Reyes and Pompey will have their opportunity to run free against Ubaldo Jimenez on Saturday – over the past two seasons, opposing base runners have been successful on 35 steals in 47 attempts (74.5%), and this follows a 2012 season in which he gave up 32 thefts in that campaign alone. If you're a DFS player, then roster these Jays accordingly.

Baltimore

Adam Jones – The unquestioned leader of the offense, the consistent Jones has batted over .280 with 25 or more jacks and 82+ RBI in four straight seasons. The center fielder does everything except for walk, though the lack of patience dings his value in OBP leagues and his stolen-base total dipped last season. Owner of a (career) reverse platoon split that favors right-handed opponents, Jones also has a strong track record against Buehrle in his career, with a triple-slash of .355/.412/.516 in 34 plate appearances head-to-head.

Chris Davis – Davis experienced one of the most volatile season-to-season swings in recent memory, going from the 1.000 OPS and 53-homer campaign of 2013 to last season's sub-Mendoza hack-fest. Nobody questions the raw power, but the resume of inconsistency swings open the door of possibilities. He stands to benefit from one of the best home parks in the majors in terms of left-handed home runs.

Manny Machado – Machado had a slow spring, and optimism wanes as the knee injuries pile up and his doubles-saturated campaign of 2013 fades further in the rearview mirror. Of course he was 20 years old then and is starting this season at the ripe old age of 22. His knee issues will likely hurt his lateral mobility at third base and could hinder the foundation of his swing, so the yellow caution flag will be waving during his first lap back on the field, but expect him to step on the accelerator as the season progresses.

Steve Pearce – He's the lefty-killer in the lineup. Pearce's career line against southpaws is .280/.364/.515, for an OPS split that favors lefties by 171 points. He shed the Quad-A label last season, and this year he's out to prove that his bat is legit. So far so good, with two bombs in his first three games of the regular season coming on the heels of a five-homer spring. He's a prime DFS play against Buehrle on Friday, and he's a threat against the righties so long as he can retain some of the skills that gave him an .856 OPS against same-side pitchers last season.