MLB Barometer: RIP Trading

Is trading dead?

I haven't received an offer from Fred Zinkie in Tout Wars for weeks, and there hasn't been much in terms of swaps between the other owners during that time.

The question is mostly facetious in nature, but even in my long-term keeper leagues where I put out the feelers as a potential seller, two expiring stars off to sluggish starts – Andrew McCutchen and Chris Sale – generated odious offers of mostly fringe talent, or more palatable swaps that were laden with prospects that didn't provide enough of a long-term upgrade over my current pieces to justify calling it a season this early.

I made plays for Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, hoping that being an early seller offering four-player bundles that put one of those aforementioned stars with very useful pieces like Brian McCann, Khris Davis, and Huston Street would be enough.

It wasn't.

Maybe in dynasty leagues, it's impossible for owners to part with guys like Correa and Buxton right now, even if it gives those owners a better chance to win a title or at the very least, finish in the money for this season.

Having young stars capable of being elite players upon or soon after their arrival at an extreme discount can leave a keeper league owner positioned for multiple years atop the table. It's easy to dream on those possibilities.

Over the years, I've tried to become much more willing to part with unproven talent if it can return known commodities with certain playing time and stable skill sets. Even with that concerted effort, it's still easy to develop an irrational desire to retain the prospects that I sought out via previous trades and reserve drafts.

Let's say you're in a redraft league where Noah Syndergaard has been stashed on your roster (or someone else's) for more than the past few days, with the hope that the Mets would promote their top pitching prospect. You get the good news that you have been waiting for at the end of last week, review the significantly improved results that Syndergaard has returned this season at Triple-A Las Vegas, and convince yourself that he's an integral part of your roster going forward.

If it's a 12-team mixed league where each team rolls out nine pitchers, and most teams are using at least two relievers, Syndergaard needs to be among the best 80-85 starting pitchers the rest of the way to be deemed fit for regular use. Can he be that good from Day 1?

Based on the skills he's shown, age-to-level considerations, pedigree, and anything else that can make you get excited about a player, Syndergaard should be able to clear that bar with relative ease. Of course, the more important question to ask focuses on the specific level of his production.

Is he a top-20 starting pitcher the rest of the way? Top 40? Top 50? (One offer I saw over the weekend was a simple 1-for-1 where an owner with Jeff Samardzija was offered Syndergaard straight up).

Start there. Decide what you think is the most likely outcome for Syndergaard for the rest of this season. Preferably, try to do it through the lens of not actually having him on your roster.

Once you've got that number (let's say you landed on Top 50), you need to figure out how that compares to the valuation from the other owners in your league.

At this point, it's probably helpful to stop thinking of him as Noah Syndergaard, the top pitching prospect in baseball, and to start thinking of him as merely a pitcher worth $10-12 (or less) in your league from today forward.

From there, it becomes easier to rationalize a deal regardless of whether you're the buyer or seller. If his current owner thinks he's a $20 pitcher, you're not prying him loose without overpaying, so you won't be making the equivalent mistake of paying $8 too much for a player in an auction, or drafting him in the fourth round when he's rarely gone earlier than the eighth.

If you're the seller in this case, you will be able to make suitable counteroffers as needed, instead of being paralyzed by the fear that he'll carry your potential trade partner to a title.

When a new player comes into the pool, via role change or promotion, it's important to discern the quality of that player with a relative value. In the case of the former, it's often reviewing a long track record of inconsistency or poor performance, and then deciding if something has in fact changed for the better.

Do you think the owners who picked up Jake Arrieta or J.D. Martinez last season were hung up on their past failures, or were they intrigued by things that had changed about them?

This week's risers and fallers will focus on players that are mostly on the edge of relevance in deeper mixed formats like the NFBC Main Event. Hopefully for owners in more shallow formats, the assessments prove useful as advanced notice of players who may become useful in their leagues should things continue to click.

Rising

Billy Burns, OF, OAK – The A's welcomed Coco Crisp back into the fold Wednesday, but the team elected to keep Burns on the roster and send Craig Gentry to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Since being called up last weekend, Burns has started all but one game for Oakland, settling in as the team's starting center fielder. Defensively, he's a viable option in that spot, which effectively reduces the wear and tear on Crisp by moving him to left. As a switch-hitter, Burns should be less susceptible to falling into a platoon if he proves capable of holding his own against big league pitching. Although he was dropped to eighth in the order against left-hander J.A. Happ on Saturday night, Burns spent six consecutive games hitting first or second against righties. With two steals in nine games with the A's and five through his first 21 games at Triple-A Nashville, Burns' carrying tool has been on display.

Danny Espinosa, 2B, WAS – We know what Danny Espinosa is already, right? Tons of swing-and-miss, slick defense that still isn't enough to keep him in the lineup regularly, and a beard that foreshadows an eventual trade to Oakland. The 2015 version has been a breath of fresh air for the Nationals, especially with Anthony Rendon on the shelf recovering from a knee sprain and a recent oblique injury. Espinosa has lowered his strikeout rate to 19.1% this season, while drawing walks at a 9.0% mark entering play Monday. With a two-homer game Friday night against Atlanta, he's gone deep four times through 24 games.

A shoulder injury at the end of 2012 was followed by a hand injury in the spring of 2013, and a wrist injury that same season. It was later revealed that he was playing through a torn rotator cuff, and that he attempted to return from the aforementioned wrist injury too quickly. Rendon burst onto the scene last season, and Espinosa's strikeout rate topped out at 33.5%, leaving him mostly as a part-time player whose extended time in the lineup was driven more by the absence of Ryan Zimmerman than by his own performance.

Consider the following, which goes back through the start of the 2011 campaign (ID's revealed below)...

Player A: 1,811 PA, 51 HR, 46 SB, .241/.318/.401
Player B: 1,936 PA, 53 HR, 46 SB, .230/.302/.388

The Nats aren't doing anyone favors with their disclosure of injury information, and even Espinosa's past ailments were difficult to fully grasp at the time he was dealing with them. Once Rendon returns, Espinosa will be the first man up at third base behind Yunel Escobar, shortstop behind Ian Desmond, and at second behind Rendon. It's also possible that he'll be a trade target of clubs looking for a good defender up the middle with some post-hype production still lingering in his bat.

Logan Morrison, 1B, SEA – Even if we generously give Espinosa "D" health grade for his career, Morrison boasts an F. Injuries have limited him to 307 games at the big league level since he swatted 23 homers for the Marlins as a 23-year-old in 2011. Prior to a recent surge at the plate from Morrison that has included four homers over nine games in May, the calls for a Jesus Montero promotion were on the rise in Seattle. A Morrison-Montero platoon may still be in order, but the pull-happy left-handed hitting Morrison would be on the larger side of the split, and he may see an uptick in batting average if he continues to maintain a career-best 11.9% K%. At least as a temporary fill-in on the corner, .250-15-70-70-6 bats can play, and it's easy to wonder if injuries have kept him from staying in the 18-20 home-run range over the past few seasons, even with the challenge of playing half of his games at Safeco Field.

James McCann, C, DET – Alex Avila is likely out through the All-Star break following knee surgery, nudging McCann into relevance for deeper two-catcher mixers. At every full-season stop, McCann kept his strikeout rate below 20% as he moved through Detroit's minor league system. He'll be buried in the bottom third of a strong Tigers lineup, but there is a semblance of pop and at least the general awareness to chip in with the occasional stolen base after he went 9-for-11 on the basepaths with Toledo last season.

Will Venable, OF, SD – It may be short-lived once Melvin Upton's rehab assignment gets underway (he's nearing a return to the outfield in extended spring training games), but Venable is the ultimate winner of Yonder Alonso's injury in San Diego. It will be at least a few weeks before Alonso is ready to resume full baseball activities, which will shift Wil Myers to first base and afford Venable more regular time in the lineup. In three starts against the D-backs over the weekend, Venable went 6-for-12 with a home run and a stolen base. If nothing else, it's an audition for Venable to draw interest from other clubs, as he's an extraneous piece on the Padres' current roster just two years removed from a 20-20 season.

Chris Colabello, OF, TOR – I'm sure South Korea is a fine place, but it's not currently on my Top 200 Places to Live board, so I would react the same way he did if RotoWire ownership tries to free up my roster spot by dealing me overseas. Perhaps in the best-case scenario, he's another Steve Pearce, and given the home park and lineup context in Toronto, it's fair to say that stranger things have happened. More likely, he's a Quad-A guy prone to getting hot for a short stretch, and one who makes DFS players happy as a cost-effective member of a six-man Jays stack or occasional sub $3,000 filler.

Nate Karns, SP, TAM – Having a healthy arm goes a long way in Tampa Bay at the present time, as crushing injuries to Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly have significantly altered the expectations for the Rays this season. At age-27, Karns' prospect luster wore off before he received a long-term chance at the big league level. Shaky control has always been his greatest shortcoming, but he can miss bats and he gets to pitch half of his games in the only A.L. East park that doesn't deter me from streaming options. It's more about what could go right – didn't the Rays gets Fernando Rodney to stop walking guys once upon a time?

Zach McAllister, RP, CLE – Cody Allen's 9.00 ERA 2.273 WHIP is the roto incarnation of the Zoolander Gas Fight. McAllister has posted a 20:5 K:BB and held the opposition to a .234/.290/.266 over 11 appearances out of the bullpen since getting bumped from the Cleveland rotation (he allowed a trio of inherited runners to score in his appearance Friday against Minnesota). He throws his fastball in the mid-90s as a reliever, and has at least slightly better control than Bryan Shaw. If Terry Francona pulls the plug on Allen, McAllister may end up sneaking into the ninth-inning role.

Falling

Allen Craig, OF, BOS – Did anyone see a stint at Triple-A coming for Craig as even a remote possibility six weeks ago? I liked him as a dirt cheap source of three-category production (AVG, RBI, runs) in deeper leagues even with an uncertain path to playing time on a crowded Boston depth chart. Owed the pro-rated portion of $5.5 million for the rest of the 2015 season and an additional $21 million through the end of 2017 ($9M, $11M, $1M buyout on a $13M club option for 2018), I can't help but wonder if the Red Sox may just see if he regains his confidence at Triple-A before deciding their next step. Mike Napoli is a free agent at season's end, but Hanley Ramirez in left field may only be a temporary solution and the subsequent adjustments necessary to find a better defensive spot for him could include using Pablo Sandoval at first base beyond this season. In any case, Craig's value has bottomed out at a level well below where I believed the floor was, even though I am expecting him to put the pieces back together.

Josh Harrison, 3B, PIT – A sluggish start to the year has led Pirates manager Clint Hurdle to drop Harrison from the leadoff spot, opening the door for Gregory Polanco to take over that role for nine consecutive games prior to Sunday (when Harrison led off while making a spot start at second base against a left-handed pitcher). Even when things were going well last season, Harrison drew walks at a 4.0% clip. He may be able to retain the larger side of a timeshare with Jung-Ho Kang at third base, but the drop from the top spot in the order may stick. A .191 BABIP backs his .173/.209/.282 line (career .302, .353 in 2014), and Harrison's strikeout rate (16.2%) is well within range of last season's mark (14.7%). I avoided him this spring for a pick in the 95-115th overall range, and what often amounted to an auction day equivalent of that price, but he should be at least a .260 hitter capable of yielding a dozen steals if he can retain four or five starts per week. Regaining second-base eligibility in the leagues where he lost that added value over the offseason would also help.

Mike Morse, 1B, MIA – Thanks in part of a career-high 28.8% strikeout rate, Morse has carried a line that more closely resembles his dismal 2013 with the Mariners and Orioles than his useful production with the Giants from a year ago. Perhaps he's shaking out of the early-season funk after a three-day break from the lineup against the Nats last week, as Morse went 5-for-14 while starting four straight games against San Francisco over the weekend. Cheap power and RBI should be on tap if he doesn't whiff his way into a lesser role for the Marlins, especially if he's following Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, and Christian Yelich in the batting order.

Rougned Odor, 2B, TEX – Having just turned 21 years old in February, the Rangers have to strongly consider giving Odor time at Triple-A to regain his stroke. Many players his age are currently trying to navigate the California League for the first time. Perhaps the Texas front office believes that Odor will get back on track with a handful of extra days off at the big league level, but he's not the top-15 option at the keystone that I was hoping for on draft day.

Kennys Vargas, DH, MIN – A 14-for-37 stretch with a pair of homers and six RBI over the past two weeks has afforded Vargas some extra time to solidify his role as the Twins' primary DH. Things could get a lot more complicated for him between now and the return of Oswaldo Arcia from a hip injury. If Vargas falls into another slump, the Twins could consider Josmil Pinto as a replacement from Triple-A Rochester. If Eddie Rosario appears to be ready for the big leagues, Arcia could spend more time in right field and the Twins could opt to reduce the wear and tear on Torii Hunter by using him as the DH. Even with the recent uptick in production, a 24-year-old DH with a .655 OPS is far from safe.

Yordano Ventura, SP, KC – There is still plenty like with Ventura, but fewer strikeouts and an uptick in grounders has been the big takeaway through six starts. The cloud overhead with Ventura is the valgus stress overload that slowed him last season, an injury that rivals only Joe Mauer's bilateral leg weakness from a few years back in terms of its uniqueness and my general lack of understanding regarding the long-term implications. The drop in swinging-strike rate (from 10.3% last season to 8.9% so far) supports the lower K-rate, and while the long-term future here is still bright, perhaps the breakout is another year away. He's fun to watch, has 80 swagger, but isn't showing enough early skills growth for my liking.

Chris Tillman, SP, BAL – When do you trust using him right now? Non-owners, are you trying to buy low or pick him up off the waiver wire where he's available? If so, why? Please weigh in with a comment below.

Dillon Gee, SP, NYM – Maybe the Mets will finally part ways with Gee via trade once he's healthy, but if Noah Syndergaard is in fact a top-50 starting pitcher, that's going to be an upgrade over Gee and he'll end up shifting into a relief role.

Player A, Player B

If you made it this far, thanks for sticking with me.

Player A above is Brian Dozier, while Player B is Danny Espinosa.

Also, cheer up. Vlad is back next week.