This article is part of our Umpire Analysis series.
Last Week's Picks
Tuesday
Game: TB at BOS
Umpire: Brian Gorman
Player Recommendation:Rick Porcello, RHP: 7 IP, 8 H, 0 ER, 6 K, 0 BB
A nice start to the week for us, as Gorman's tight zone contributed to Porcello's only zero-walk game of the season. Gorman is showing himself to once again be an umpire we can rely on for low totals in 2015, as the two runs yielded in the contest helped bring his season ERA down to 3.19 in seven appearances (121.3 innings).
Game: SEA at LAA
Umpire: Greg Gibson
Player Recommendation:Seth Smith, OF: O-for-5
Despite having to pitch through some tough situations, Garrett Richards kept his control in this one, allowing just two free passes through seven innings. The low walk total is discouraging, but Gibson has shown himself to be liberal with his strike zone through 126.1 innings this season, tallying a walk rate of 3.5 per nine innings. The fact that this is in line with his numbers last season makes me think that the overall inclination to calling pitches off the plate will likely continue, which could make Gibson worth a look against pitchers who have less than impeccable control going forward.
Wednesday
Game: NYY at TOR
Umpire: Toby Basner
Player Recommendation:Russell Martin: 3-for-4, HR, two runs scored
The six runs yielded in the contest has helped keep Basner's ERA at a robust 4.60 through five games, while still sporting one of the worst K/9 rates of any umpire in the league (6.6). Basner's body of work through the past two seasons should give us confidence that runs will be easy to come by when he is behind the plate, even if the strikeout rate begins to climb a bit.
Game: CHC at STL
Umpire: D.J. Reyburn
Player Recommendation:Lance Lynn, RHP: 6 IP 8 H 5 ER 6 K 2 BB
We were looking for Reyburn's low walk rate to be a catalyst for a nice performance here, and while he did end up walking just two batters, Lynn struggled for the second time in three outings. Reyburn's penchant for calling strikes seemed to get away from him when he officiated the Reds' game against the White Sox on Sunday, as he saw 12 walks in the contest, but that result is unique this season, as he had not called more than seven free passes in an outing prior to the contest. Still, it may be worth monitoring Reyburn to see if he will begin to approach the pitcher-friendly stats he accrued last year.
Thursday
Game: CHC at STL
Umpire: John Tumpane
Player Recommendation:Anthony Rizzo, 1B: 0-for-4
A poor result here, as John Lackey struck out 10 in one of his best starts of the season. The game still yielded six runs, as Jake Arrieta gave the performance we were hoping for from his opposite number, allowing nine hits and four earned runs through 5.1 innings. The high-strikeout performance from both pitchers improved Tumpane's rates a bit, but he has still tallied a league-high 6.10 ERA through five outings.
This Week's Picks
Tuesday
Game: MIA at LAD
Umpire: Bob Davidson
Player Recommendation:Dan Haren, RHP
Davidson has picked up where he left off in 2014 as one of the best pitcher's umpires in the sport, tallying a 2.97 ERA and an 8.0 K/9 rate in 88 innings this season. I am tempted to recommend Michael Bolsinger and his $4,700 price tag against the weaker Miami offense, but he has not thrown more than 87 pitches in a start between the majors and minors this year, making the length he will be afforded in the outing a bit unpredictable.
Game: TOR@BAL
Umpire: Bruce Dreckman
Player Recommendation:Adam Jones, OF
Dreckman has a 5.05 ERA in 73 innings this season and will be behind the plate in a hitter's park calling balls and strikes for two pitchers who have struggled mightily. This game has a chance to be heavy on the offense, which makes a stack on either side a viable option.
Wednesday
Game: NYY at TB
Umpire: Dan Iassogna
Player Recommendation:Jacoby Ellsbury, OF
Nathan Karns has shown promise in his last three starts, but his overall walk numbers are still a bit of an eyesore, as he's allowed 19 free passes in 40.1 innings. Iassogna has sported a zone that could be troublesome for a pitcher who already tends to work deep counts, as he has seen just 6.9 K/9 while calling 3.0 BB/9 in eight games this season.
Game: CWS at MIL
Umpire: Mark Ripperger
Player Recommendation:Jimmy Nelson, RHP
The sample may be on the small side, but Ripperger will head into the game with the lowest ERA (1.61) of any umpire through four outings this season. Nelson has had a bit of an issue with walks this season, but the problem should be mitigated by Ripperger's predilection for calling strikes, as he has seen just 1.4 walks per nine innings.
Thursday
Game: KAN at TEX
Umpire: Chris Conroy
Player Recommendation:Lorenzo Cain, OF
Conroy has kept an ERA above 4.30 for the last 536.6 innings dating back to last season, and should see all the runs he can handle when two struggling starters who are low on punch outs square off in Arlington.
