MLB Barometer: Patience Rewarded

Kudos to those who do well in season-long baseball and profit in DFS. Unfortunately, I am not one of those people. Time is one of the key components to building successful daily fantasy baseball lineups - something many of us don't have much of. I spend about 50-plus hours a week at my full-time job and forcing half-hearted DFS research prior to lineup lock isn't very wise. Plus, it takes away from my productivity at the office and adds an extra layer of unnecessary stress. I won't use that as an excuse though - it's not like I crush winning lineups on the weekends.

Bankroll management is an issue as well, though it is something I have worked to improve on. I've been better at it, though I still prefer the thrill and volatility of the bigger tournaments, where only 15 to 20 percent of entrants cash compared to 50 percent in cash games (double-ups and 50/50s). Though I have had a handful of decent DFS wins and scored a big haul in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker in football last year, I still impulsively enter contests in volumes and sometimes don't have a method to my madness. Bankroll management is crucial to success in DFS, but even so, that isn't my biggest problem.

The biggest problem is allowing biases to sink in to my decision-making. Essentially, what I'm doing is looking at my season-long players with rose-colored glasses and assuming they can do no wrong. Of course, nobody wants a starting pitcher to get shelled on their draft teams and in their DFS lineups, but each day of action is its own animal and requires unbiased evaluation. Indeed, it is human nature to root for players you are invested in, but being able to compartmentalize a specific day's slate and rise above the reflexive tendencies of the mind is imperative to DFS success.

Case in point - I'm heavily invested in Carlos Rodon this season. He was my favorite rookie arm in the spring and I made sure to draft him in the NFBC where I could. Four shares among seven teams. Rodon was coming off a nice stretch of four games where he had not allowed more than one earned run and appeared to be settling in with his control and grooving with that masterful slider. I didn't build DFS lineups Monday, but I'm almost certain I would not have 'stacked' Pittsburgh Pirates against him. As you well know, they shellacked him for seven runs in just under four innings. My soft/blind spot for Rodon would have lead my analysis in other directions without giving much thought to the fact that Rodon was susceptible to damage and that stacking Pirates could win a tournament. I'm certain I would have immediately dismissed them.

It's a slight example, but nonetheless it pinpoints an overarching flaw in my reasoning when analyzing a day's slate for DFS purposes. Because anything can happen on any given day of action, every possibility must be considered, no stone left unturned. Separating oneself from biases is easier said than done, but being consciously aware of them is the first step in the right direction. Go ahead and learn from your own mistakes, but definitely be sure to learn from mine as well.

RISERS
Jose Abreu (1B, CHW) - Abreu was quite the polarizing first rounder this March, but remains on pace to replicate his monster numbers from 2014 despite very little fanfare. Abreu has 12 HR, 40 RBI and 33 R through 45 games - multiply by three for the full season of games and you get 36 / 120 / 99 - in the ballpark of his 36 / 107 / 80 from last season. Of course, simply projecting 'on pace' by multiplying is usually a novice's game. But in the case of a top-line hitter like Abreu, the projection isn't much of a stretch. The White Sox have struggled offensively this year: Melky Cabrera has one homer all year and was moved down in the lineup. The Adams (LaRoche and Eaton) have not played up to expectations. Alexei Ramirez is turning 34 this year and is on the decline. The offense isn't great to begin with, but at some point this summer, it will all come together. Abreu had a decent stretch last week, hitting .409 (9-for-22) with 3 HR and 7 RBI. Nothing in his profile points to his rookie season as anything close to a fluke. Abreu has improved his strikeout-rate slightly from 21 percent to 19 percent, his fly ball rate is the same as last year (31 percent) and the rest of his batted ball rates (soft/medium/hard, pull/center/oppo) are nearly on par with last year's numbers. He is struggling against LHP (.225/.295/.720), but that too should normalize somewhere between that .225 BA and the .353 he hit against them last year; though not higher than .280. He may not match last year's 36 HR totals, but 30 HR is an attainable target. Abreu's batting average is up to .291 through Sunday's action and the true benefit of drafting him will become evident this summer.

Joe Panik (2B, SF) - The former first round draft pick from 2011 has been surging from under the radar over the last few weeks. Panik hit .320 in 25 at-bats in Week 10 and popped two balls into the bleachers bringing his home run total to six this year. He ranks top five among major league second baseman in runs, batting average, on-base percentage, walk-rate and WAR, and strikes out slightly less than 12 percent of his plate appearances. Panik has played the majority of the year as the number two hitter in the Giants lineup in front of Buster Posey and Brandon Belt - a great spot for run production. And the hot-hitting Nori Aoki (.290 career hitter) sets the table for them. San Francisco Giants management did not think Panik was ready when called up last year, but all he has done since entering the big leagues is make contact - and he boasts a career .310 BA over almost 500 at-bats. Last month Panik was quoted as saying that he his swing will inevitably lead to more power. After the two homers last week, and a downward trending groundball rate to match his upward trending fly ball rate, perhaps the power is coming sooner than even he expected. Panik won't hit .300-plus every month this year, but he is the exact type of MI profile that sits on waiver wires, underrated. That should end this week, as he is likely to be scooped up in every competitive league by the time you read this.

Young Guns - Jacob deGrom (SP, NYM) and Sonny Gray (SP, OAK) - Different teams in different leagues, but similar results. The past month has been a stretch of pure domination with little pity on hitters for deGrom. Since serving up 4 ER to the Cubs in Wrigley on May 11, deGrom has been spectacular over a six-start stretch - 53 strikeouts in 43.1 IP with just six earned runs and five walks allowed. Meanwhile, Gray has been dominant pretty much of the entire season. He has allowed only one or zero earned runs in nine of his 14 starts this year. deGrom has a 2.33 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP while Gray sits at 1.60 and 0.93. deGrom has a 7-4 record on an overachieving Mets squad barely over .500 while Gray's record is 8-3 on a team struggling, entering Week 11 with a .400 winning percentage. deGrom and Gray have both increased their strikeout-rates from last year, but even more impressive is an even better improvement in their walk-rates, both by nearly a full walk-per-nine. The correlations continue as deGrom and Gray were selected within 15 spots of each other, on average, in NFBC leagues - Gray with an ADP of 90, and deGrom at 104. Fantasy players who selected the other starting pitchers in that range haven't been that lucky so far - among the names, Alex Wood, Gio Gonzalez, Alex Cobb and Hisashi Iwakuma. deGrom and Gray have many things going for them - their arsenals, weak hitting divisions, nice home pitchers parks, youth, health, and most importantly, great control. There is no reason to expect any sort of major decline over the remainder of the season.

Kenley Jansen (RP, LAD) - Jansen returned from his foot injury exactly one month ago, and should end up being worth the wait. He's also worth the weight - all 265 pounds of him. Jansen would have easily been drafted with the group that included Kimbrel, Chapman and Holland, but was available in most drafts a few rounds later with folks knowing he would be out for April, and possibly longer. Since returning on May 15, Jansen has 9 saves in 11 appearances, including three last week. One of them was his first appearance this year, an eighth inning opportunity where he struck out four. The other was a blown save on a home run by AJ Pollock in a game where he still notched the win. Watching his appearances closely, Jansen gets ahead in the count quickly and opposing batters' swings come incredibly late and appear in slow motion. Last week, I tweeted to buy low on Kenley, but alas, nobody follows me, and one week of light save opps hardly makes wise Jansen owners worry. He pitches in the NL West for one of the best teams in baseball - and if there ever was an opportunity for owners looking to grab the guy with the most saves for the final 3.5 months, this is it.

HONORABLE MENTIONS
Jace Peterson (SS, ATL) - Hit .420 last week with seven runs scored, a homer and a steal. Back to leading off and striving after a few cold weeks and less pressure to produce. You could do worse at a position with few viable options on your 12-team league's waiver wire.

Mitch Moreland (1B, TEX) - Looking like the year this big boy finally puts it all together. Drove in nine runs with two homers last week. Hitting .308 but still struggling against lefties (.244). Age 29, but appears in his power prime. Hit 23 in 2013 and could set a career high if health allows.

Manny Machado (3B, BAL) - The kid who scored 88 runs as a rookie is now a five-category contributor, leading off and crushing it for an AL East team with opposing starting pitcher options to salivate over. Hit .459 and scored nine runs last week. Eleven homers and eight stolen bases in mid-June looks like 20/20 come year-end.

Mat Latos (SP, MIA) - Was hitting on all cylinders in his return start from knee inflammation, striking out 11 Rockies' batters. His next start against the Yankees in New York looks dicey on paper, but for patient owners and new ones, his weekend performance was a reason for hope.

NOT BUYING IT
Cameron Maybin (OF, ATL) - Eleven steals and a .303 from the long and forgotten one. An improved walk-rate is nice to see (10 percent first time in his career), but a .359 BABIP for a .251 career hitter screams of regression.

Jorge De La Rosa (SP, COL) - The original DLR (because there's Rubby, too) is not that bad, especially for a Rockies pitcher. But, he's not this good. Last two years K/9 was 6.4, now all of a sudden, he's 9.7. The 4.7 BB/9 scares me - it will normalize, but I'm afraid there is only one man who could ever be called the King of Coors, and thy name is Ubaldo.

FALLERS
Marcus Semien (SS, OAK) - My, what a tumble Semien's stock has taken. Dropped and available in 12-teamers last week and even so, folks are afraid his defensive errors will count against their fantasy teams. Semien is hitting .180 in June without a home run or run batted in, after hitting .283 over the first two months of the season. Last season was quite the opposite results with the White Sox. He hit .228 over the first two months of the season before getting sent down to Triple-A. He was recalled in September and hit .273 with 3 HR and 10 RBI. Six homers and seven steals are nice, but the .322 OBP and abysmal defense that costs his A's games are despicable. I was lucky to weather the storm in CDM's Diamond Challenge (salary cap) where I held onto a struggling Xander Bogaerts and resisted the urge to add the faux five-tool tool. His 20 percent strikeout-rate is better than 27 last year, but I'd rather give up a few stolen bases and take my chances at MI with Jace Peterson, Joe Panik or Scooter Gennett.

Justin Bour (1B, FLA) - The Mouse-Horse (Morse, if you will) will soon be stalking the boar (Bour) for what is rightfully his - the first base job for the Marlins. And Bour appears to be making it easy on him. Bour has just two hits in June so far (.074 BA) with no homers and a single run batted in. The big lefty was crushing early on, but recently, opposing pitchers have him figured out. There is always a reason why a 27-year-old 'prospect' finally makes it to the main stage only to flame out. Maybe he has faced some tough pitchers, or is just a streaky hitter. Either way, Bour will have to hit the ground running this week and get his groove back with Morse likely only a couple of weeks away. Now Morse is no spring chicken himself at 33, but if his finger heals and we get a glimpse of that old stroke, it shouldn't take much for Morse to reclaim his spot atop the Marlins food chain at the corner.

Mike Foltynewicz (SP, ATL) - Oh Folty, how I fault thee. He was supposed to bring good tidings to the Braves rotation and to our NFBC Main Event rotation. Instead, he has single-handedly destroyed our WHIP category. Though he improved upon the free passes in three June starts (4 BB total), Foltynewicz scattered 29 hits over those 15.2 innings. His WHIP is 1.56 and the ERA is at 5.19. I'm not certain which one stings worse. I know many a roto player who was on the Folty bandwagon because of his potential. Several pitches in the arsenal, but the only decent one was his much-too-straight fastball that tops out at 99 mph. Folty was supposed to have a cutter and a slider, but I haven't seen them displayed as advertised as opponents hit .375 against them combined on just over 200 pitches. It sounds like it's time to send Folty back to settle down in Triple-A, rework his game and remind himself that big leaguers hit pitches that lack movement. When he returns and if he's ready, I am willing to jump right back on the bandwagon.

Kyle Gibson (SP, MIN) - Another first round arm with much hype surrounding him prior to his 2013 debut where he was crushed to the tune of a 6.53 ERA in 51 innings. The second wave of hype came in the spring where an increase in his velocity was noted. Gibson found his way onto fantasy teams in the later rounds of mostly 15-teamers. But the velocity increase wasn't thoroughly evaluated by many of us - Gibson did, in fact, improve on his fastball and two-seamer from last year, but only back to the level of his rookie year. Though Gibson had an incredible run in May (just 6 ER and 9 BB in 39.2 IP), he gave some of it back over two home starts this month, allowing nine earned runs in 13 innings. Gibson is a serviceable option in deep leagues, but he is an extreme ground ball pitcher with a low strikeout-rate - 5.4 K/9 this year, 5.2 over the last two years. His control is a touch reduced from last season, but a 4.54 FIP portends to a bit of luck in the 3.24 ERA. Tread lightly with Gibson and be sure to pick your spots with him.

DISHONORABLE MENTIONS
Kennys Vargas (DH, MIN) - Just 34 games this year, but striking out at a 30 percent rate with a sub .100 ISO. With a Miguel Sano promotion possibly on the horizon, Vargas may be without a gig soon.

Matt Carpenter (3B, STL) - Guess who leads the Cardinals in strikeouts? Hint: it's not Mark Reynolds. Carp has already matched last year's HR total (8) and puts up nice counting cats, but he is no longer the safe batting average guy. Hit .150 (3-for-20) last week.

Tsuyoshi Wada (SP, CHC) - Struck batters out with abandon in his first start of the year, but couldn't get out of the fourth inning in either of his last two starts. Wada is lucky Mother Nature nullified the two-step this week against the Indians and Twins - the two best-hitting teams vs LHP.

Jimmy Nelson (SP, MLW) - The strikeouts-per-nine are near elite (8.0) but walking nearly 3.5 per nine and his performances from start to start are much too volatile to stomach (ER last 3: 7, 0, 6). Nelson is droppable in 12-teamers for now.

DON'T PANIC ON
Alex Rios (OF, KC) - In a horrendous slump since returning from the disabled list - just 4-for-34. Hand fracture isn't the best injury for a hitter, especially one who is 34. If you've held on to him this long, may as well weather the storm. Once fully healed and in a rhythm, he should hit a hot streak. Just don't expect anything closely resembling 2012-2013 numbers.

Jordan Zimmermann (SP, WAS) - Allowed 19 hits and 10 ER over his last two starts (8.1 IP). Walks are up and strikeouts are down (from 8.2 K/9 last year, 6.1 this year). Even fastball velocity down by one mile per hour. Bright side is a reduced home run rate and a FIP more than half a run below his ERA. Have to think a smart vet like Zimm will get his act together and figure it out this summer.