This article is part of our Fantasy 101 series.
This week I wrap up the two-week series on starting pitchers. Last week, I covered it from the team perspective and this week we get into the individual starters. The questions that I wanted to answer with the research were:Who are the best starting pitchers for cash games?
Who are the best starting pitchers for tournaments?
Who are the most volatile starting pitchers?
Who are the top value pitchers (under $8,000 and over than $8,000)?
Who are the worst 20 starting pitchers?
Who are the top 20 starting pitchers for points per game?
Who are the worst starting pitchers from a value perspective?
Who are the best pitchers at home versus on the road?
Note: data is through June 19, 2015
Top 20 Cash Game Pitchers (Heads Up/Double Up/50-50)
(at least 10 points per game and less than 5.0 standard deviation)
| Player | Avg Pts | Std Dev | Count |
| Gerrit Cole | 15.21 | 4.41 | 14 |
| Cole Hamels | 13.31 | 4.77 | 14 |
| Dallas Keuchel | 13.31 | 4.22 | 14 |
| James Shields | 12.78 | 3.65 | 15 |
| Zack Greinke | 12.76 | 4.14 | 14 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 12.67 | 4.76 | 14 |
| Jake Arrieta | 12.61 | 4.75 | 13 |
| A.J. Burnett | 12.59 | 3.49 | 14 |
| Jason Hammel | 12.54 | 4.95 | 13 |
| Michael Wacha | 12.18 | 2.61 | 13 |
| Lance Lynn | 11.78 | 4.92 | 12 |
| Alfredo Simon | 11.55 | 4.73 | 12 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 11.22 | 3.75 | 12 |
| Hector Santiago | 11.18 | 4.44 | 13 |
| Shelby Miller | 11.09 | 4.69 | 14 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | 10.61 | 4.46 | 13 |
| Edinson Volquez | 10.56 | 4.41 | 13 |
| Tyson Ross | 10.40 | 2.61 | 14 |
| Dan Haren | 10.31 | 3.11 | 14 |
| Tim Lincecum | 10.10 | 4.76 | 13 |
I calculate standard deviation by using the formula in Excel. This is the best measurement for determining who are the most consistent pitchers. These are the safest starting pitchers that you can use in cash games. Outside of maybe Lincecum, who is good at home and bad on the road, I think you can feel safe with the majority of the pitchers on this list.
Top 20 Tournament Pitchers
(at least 11 points per game and at least 5.0 standard deviation)
| Player | Avg Pts | Std Dev | Count |
| Max Scherzer | 16.49 | 6.21 | 13 |
| Chris Sale | 15.74 | 7.84 | 13 |
| Chris Archer | 14.67 | 6.14 | 15 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 14.36 | 5.21 | 14 |
| Jacob deGrom | 13.52 | 6.39 | 14 |
| Sonny Gray | 13.44 | 5.27 | 15 |
| Felix Hernandez | 13.33 | 8.79 | 14 |
| Danny Salazar | 13.28 | 6.14 | 12 |
| Francisco Liriano | 13.13 | 6.52 | 13 |
| Matt Harvey | 13.13 | 6.17 | 13 |
| Corey Kluber | 12.98 | 7.34 | 14 |
| Michael Pineda | 12.95 | 7.29 | 13 |
| David Price | 12.88 | 6.88 | 14 |
| Carlos Martinez | 12.79 | 5.53 | 13 |
| Johnny Cueto | 12.51 | 5.07 | 13 |
| Trevor Bauer | 12.15 | 6.76 | 13 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 11.69 | 6.57 | 14 |
| C.J. Wilson | 11.36 | 5.11 | 14 |
| Jesse Chavez | 11.18 | 5.43 | 11 |
| John Lackey | 10.90 | 7.20 | 14 |
Most of the pitchers in this group you can also use in cash games, but more importantly they offer the ceiling that you need in order to win a tournament. Especially when a guy like Max Scherzer goes out there and throws a no-hitter!
Top 20 Most Volatile Starting Pitchers
(fewer than 11 points per game and at least 6.50 standard deviation)
| Player | Avg Pts | Std Dev | Count |
| Shaun Marcum | 8.00 | 7.90 | 6 |
| Anibal Sanchez | 10.50 | 7.59 | 14 |
| Drew Hutchison | 8.76 | 7.46 | 14 |
| Chris Heston | 10.69 | 7.41 | 14 |
| Taijuan Walker | 8.77 | 7.31 | 13 |
| Mat Latos | 7.57 | 7.28 | 11 |
| John Lackey | 10.90 | 7.20 | 14 |
| Ricky Nolasco | 8.66 | 7.16 | 7 |
| Shane Greene | 6.46 | 7.15 | 13 |
| Wade Miley | 8.23 | 7.13 | 13 |
| Mike Wright | 6.61 | 6.97 | 6 |
| Tommy Milone | 8.95 | 6.90 | 7 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 8.43 | 6.76 | 13 |
| Jimmy Nelson | 8.67 | 6.73 | 14 |
| Severino Gonzalez | 5.33 | 6.61 | 5 |
| Justin Masterson | 6.05 | 6.61 | 7 |
| Josh Collmenter | 6.05 | 6.59 | 12 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | 10.41 | 6.55 | 12 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | 7.30 | 6.51 | 10 |
| Travis Wood | 8.71 | 6.50 | 7 |
You have to really pick your spots when using a majority of these pitchers (tournaments only). It might only be versus a certain lineup heavy with right-handed or left-handed bats, using them at home or against the weakest of teams.
Top 20 Value Pitchers (Sub-$8,000)
| Player | Avg Pts | Avg Salary | Multiplier |
| Lance McCullers | 12.47 | $5,757 | 2.23 |
| Williams Perez | 11.83 | $5,800 | 2.04 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 11.93 | $7,180 | 1.91 |
| Mike Bolsinger | 10.83 | $6,110 | 1.82 |
| Charlie Morton | 12.47 | $6,900 | 1.81 |
| Chris Heston | 10.69 | $6,214 | 1.80 |
| Chad Bettis | 10.19 | $5,871 | 1.76 |
| Chris Young | 11.00 | $6,300 | 1.75 |
| Brandon Morrow | 10.80 | $6,480 | 1.69 |
| Jaime Garcia | 11.50 | $7,150 | 1.61 |
| Colby Lewis | 10.31 | $6,443 | 1.60 |
| Rubby De La Rosa | 10.50 | $6,700 | 1.60 |
| Alfredo Simon | 11.55 | $7,575 | 1.54 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 10.87 | $7,085 | 1.54 |
| Hector Santiago | 11.18 | $7,323 | 1.53 |
| Jesse Chavez | 11.18 | $7,600 | 1.47 |
| C.J. Wilson | 11.36 | $7,879 | 1.45 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | 10.61 | $7,354 | 1.45 |
| Roenis Elias | 10.21 | $7,245 | 1.42 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 10.67 | $7,643 | 1.41 |
This is a good group of pitchers that you can consider in tournaments and under some circumstances in cash games (against weak opposing pitcher/team that strikes out a lot).
Top 20 Value Pitchers (at least $8,000)
| Player | Avg Pts | Avg Salary | Multiplier |
| Chris Archer | 14.67 | $9,200 | 1.60 |
| Gerrit Cole | 15.21 | $9,564 | 1.60 |
| Danny Salazar | 13.28 | $8,575 | 1.58 |
| A.J. Burnett | 12.59 | $8,143 | 1.56 |
| Carlos Martinez | 12.79 | $8,400 | 1.52 |
| Chris Sale | 15.74 | $10,308 | 1.52 |
| Dallas Keuchel | 13.31 | $8,993 | 1.49 |
| Francisco Liriano | 13.13 | $8,869 | 1.49 |
| Jason Hammel | 12.54 | $8,508 | 1.49 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 13.19 | $9,014 | 1.47 |
| Max Scherzer | 16.49 | $11,208 | 1.47 |
| Trevor Bauer | 12.15 | $8,323 | 1.47 |
| Michael Pineda | 12.95 | $8,992 | 1.46 |
| Michael Wacha | 12.18 | $8,485 | 1.43 |
| Jacob deGrom | 13.52 | $9,579 | 1.42 |
| James Shields | 12.78 | $9,033 | 1.42 |
| Sonny Gray | 13.44 | $9,720 | 1.40 |
| Cole Hamels | 13.31 | $9,686 | 1.38 |
| Lance Lynn | 11.78 | $8,600 | 1.38 |
| John Lackey | 10.90 | $8,057 | 1.36 |
The key on this list to look at the average salary for the season and compare to what their salary is now. You can still find value with them as long as the matchup is good (home/low run total/high strikeout team, etc).
Bottom 20 Value Pitchers
| Player | Avg Pts | Std Dev | Count | Avg Salary | Multiplier |
| Stephen Strasburg | 6.93 | 6.26 | 10 | $9,350 | 0.73 |
| Doug Fister | 6.25 | 5.66 | 8 | $8,263 | 0.74 |
| Danny Duffy | 6.42 | 6.01 | 8 | $7,513 | 0.86 |
| Shane Greene | 6.46 | 7.15 | 13 | $7,538 | 0.87 |
| Jarred Cosart | 7.09 | 3.59 | 7 | $7,357 | 0.97 |
| Jered Weaver | 7.50 | 5.37 | 14 | $7,793 | 0.99 |
| Julio Teheran | 8.26 | 5.69 | 14 | $8,386 | 0.99 |
| Yordano Ventura | 8.19 | 5.62 | 12 | $8,200 | 1.00 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 7.71 | 5.84 | 13 | $7,569 | 1.02 |
| Vance Worley | 7.28 | 5.66 | 7 | $7,014 | 1.03 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 9.21 | 6.14 | 14 | $9,114 | 1.03 |
| R.A. Dickey | 7.86 | 5.55 | 14 | $7,686 | 1.04 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 9.13 | 6.26 | 13 | $8,769 | 1.05 |
| Jon Niese | 8.31 | 5.29 | 13 | $7,777 | 1.07 |
| Matt Shoemaker | 8.66 | 5.99 | 13 | $8,115 | 1.07 |
| Chris Tillman | 7.69 | 4.49 | 13 | $7,092 | 1.10 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 9.88 | 5.57 | 14 | $9,043 | 1.10 |
| Matt Garza | 7.66 | 5.43 | 13 | $7,046 | 1.11 |
| Wily Peralta | 7.67 | 3.97 | 9 | $7,000 | 1.11 |
| Phil Hughes | 8.62 | 3.44 | 14 | $7,800 | 1.11 |
There are some very high profile names on this list. You can target against them in tournaments as hitters still could be lower owned. You want to stay away from pitchers on this list as the value has been so terrible this year.
Top 20 and Bottom 20 Starting Pitchers (Average Points Per Game)
| Top 20 | Bottom 20 | ||
| Player | Avg Pts | Player | Avg Pts |
| Max Scherzer | 16.49 | David Buchanan | 2.53 |
| Chris Sale | 15.74 | Ross Detwiler | 4.24 |
| Gerrit Cole | 15.21 | Jerome Williams | 5.21 |
| Chris Archer | 14.67 | Bud Norris | 5.22 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 14.36 | Severino Gonzalez | 5.33 |
| Jacob deGrom | 13.52 | Dillon Gee | 5.43 |
| Sonny Gray | 13.44 | Archie Bradley | 5.46 |
| Felix Hernandez | 13.33 | Hector Noesi | 5.46 |
| Cole Hamels | 13.31 | Kyle Kendrick | 5.55 |
| Dallas Keuchel | 13.31 | Sean O'Sullivan | 5.59 |
| Danny Salazar | 13.28 | Eric Stults | 5.87 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 13.19 | Jordan Lyles | 5.90 |
| Matt Harvey | 13.13 | Eddie Butler | 6.03 |
| Francisco Liriano | 13.13 | Justin Masterson | 6.05 |
| Corey Kluber | 12.98 | Josh Collmenter | 6.05 |
| Michael Pineda | 12.95 | Roberto Hernandez | 6.09 |
| David Price | 12.88 | Jeremy Guthrie | 6.18 |
| Carlos Martinez | 12.79 | Doug Fister | 6.25 |
| James Shields | 12.78 | Danny Duffy | 6.42 |
| Zack Greinke | 12.76 | Shane Greene | 6.46 |
If you are a new daily fantasy baseball player, I talked about playing "tight" or the top 20 in my article a few weeks ago. The list we gave was from 2014, so we now have enough of a sample size to use 2015 data.
On the right side is the absolute worst starting pitching group – you want to target hitters against these pitchers!!!
Top 20 Pitchers (Home versus Road)
| Player | Home | Road | Avg Pts |
| John Lackey | 15.33 | 5.00 | 10.33 |
| Drew Hutchison | 13.62 | 3.90 | 9.71 |
| Brandon Morrow | 12.50 | 4.00 | 8.50 |
| Travis Wood | 13.44 | 5.17 | 8.28 |
| Julio Teheran | 12.33 | 5.21 | 7.13 |
| Mike Bolsinger | 14.20 | 7.46 | 6.73 |
| Carlos Rodon | 13.33 | 7.00 | 6.34 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 14.17 | 8.05 | 6.12 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | 12.95 | 6.86 | 6.09 |
| Taijuan Walker | 12.47 | 6.46 | 6.01 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 17.24 | 11.47 | 5.76 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 12.83 | 7.78 | 5.06 |
| Garrett Richards | 13.39 | 8.39 | 5.00 |
| Charlie Morton | 14.44 | 9.50 | 4.94 |
| Jacob deGrom | 15.62 | 10.72 | 4.90 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 12.56 | 7.88 | 4.68 |
| Tim Lincecum | 12.14 | 7.72 | 4.42 |
| Michael Pineda | 14.95 | 10.61 | 4.34 |
| Felix Hernandez | 15.08 | 11.00 | 4.08 |
| Alfredo Simon | 13.50 | 9.61 | 3.89 |
Even though the sample sizes here are not huge, we still have enough to warrant some conclusions. Clearly Lackey, Hutchison and Teheran are only playable at home right now.
The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Michael Rathburn plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: burnnotice, DraftKings: burnnotice, Yahoo: burnnotice, Fantasy Aces: burnnotice, FantasyDraft: burnnotice.
