This article is part of our Umpire Analysis series.
Last Week's Picks
Tuesday
Game: LAA at CWS
Umpire: Marcus Pattillo
Recommendation:Hector Santiago, LHP: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, BB, 4 K
Despite a few things in our favor, it was Santiago's opponent, Carlos Rodon, who stole the show, striking out 11 and allowing just four hits over seven frames en route to the victory. Pattillo saw just three runs and 20 strikeouts and has not seen less than 16 strikeouts in any of his five games this season.
Game: COL at NYM
Umpire: Sam Holbrook
Recommendation:Juan Uribe, 3B: 0-For-4
A bout of back stiffness caused Lucas Duda, who was my original pick in the contest, to be scratched from the starting lineup. Rusin was not deterred by the right-handed bats Tuesday, as he allowed just one run over six innings, but a blowup by reliever John Axford in the seventh inning led to a New York victory. The four walks were the fewest seen by Holbrook since he called three free passes when the Rays faced the Astros July 10.
Wednesday
Game: COL at NYM
Umpire: Ben May
Recommendation:Jacob deGrom, RHP: 7 IP, 2 H, 4 BB, 10 K
The fact that deGrom issued four walks is surprising, particularly given our umpire for the game, but a look at the pitch chart does actually suggest the 27-year-old may have been getting squeezed on the corners a bit. In any event, we should comfortably select both deGrom and May in the future, as the latter has seen five runs or less in eight of 13 starts this season.
Game: BAL at SEA
Umpire:Jeff Nelson
Recommendation:Robinson Cano, 2B: 1-for-4, RBI
It's hard to expect much offense when the opposing starter throws a no-hitter, but Gausman was hit fairly hard despite a nice overall performance, as the Mariners got to him for five doubles that led to three runs. After showing high totals for most of the season, Nelson has been stingy lately with 13 runs over his last four games.
Thursday
Game: COL at NYM
Umpire: Greg Gibson
Recommendation: Lefty hitters against Eddie Butler
I had Duda plugged in again here before the forced revision, and it seems like he may have gotten the job done, as lefties Kelly Johnson and Curtis Granderson each had a homer in a 12-run outburst, while Michael Conforto picked up a double and three runs scored. Gibson has seen 37 runs over his last four games.
This Week's Picks
Tuesday
Game: CLE at BOS
Umpire: Mike Muchlinski
Recommendation:Trevor Bauer, RHP
Trevor Bauer has been wildly inconsistent this season, with exploits ranging from a complete-game, six-strikeout performance against the Royals on July 28, to getting tagged for six runs in 3.1 innings in his last start against the Yankees. He could be a candidate to deliver a nice outing under Muchlinski's watch, however, as he has tallied a 3.6:1 K:BB ratio over his last four outings. The Red Sox enter the game a shade below league average against right-handed pitchers this season, while Bauer has logged an 8.8 K/9 rate in 140.2 innings.
Game: SEA at TEX
Umpire: James Hoye
Recommendation:Franklin Gutierrez, OF
Chi Chi Gonzalez enters having tallied more walks (24) than strikeouts (19) over 49 innings, and Hoye checks in with a 2.3:1 K:BB ratio over his last five games. While either side of the platoon should serve players well, Gonzalez has logged a 5.61 xFIP against right-handed hitters, making Franklin Gutierrez, Nelson Cruz and Mark Trumbo (for a cheaper play) viable options.
Wednesday
Game: MIA at MIL
Umpire: Ben May
Recommendation:Wily Peralta, RHP
It's not often that I look to such an extreme hitter's park for pitching, but we have a lot of things in our favor Wednesday, beginning with May, whom we detailed above. Peralta has kept his walks down since coming off the disabled list at the end of July, and has a very favorable profile against the Marlins, as he is a groundball pitcher facing the team that hits the least fly balls in baseball. We could stand to see a fair bit of scarcity here, as Miller Park could scare away those who would ordinarily throw a dart at a pitcher facing the Marlins.
Game: ARI at PIT
Umpire: Manny Gonzalez
Recommendation:A.J. Pollock, OF
Opposing starter J.A. Happ has excellent peripherals against lefties this season, tallying a 2.14 xFIP and a K/9 rate above 12.00, but the strikeout rate decreases by more than half against his opposite hand, while the xFIP is 4.45. Gonzalez likely will make life harder for Happ against the righty power bats in Arizona's lineup, as he has seen nearly 10 runs per game and a 2.4:1 K:BB ratio this season.
Thursday
Game: CHW at ANA
Umpire: Mike Estabrook
Recommendation:Jose Quintana, LHP
It may be strange to think that a team containing Mike Trout and Albert Pujols can be below average against lefties, but they have notched just a 90 wRC+ this season, making them the 10th-worst team in the league against southpaws. Quintana has quietly had a very nice year, walking less than two batters per nine innings over 24 games, and could see a boost in his strikeouts, as Estabrook has seen 16.4 punch outs per game.
A quick note to readers before closing: The Baseball Prospectus database has been a bit slow to update lately. While we'd like to use the BP resource as much as possible, users looking for the most current data can check out the umpire game logs at Statfox.com.
