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Umpire Analysis: Umpire Analysis

Christopher Olson

Christopher Olson writes DFS articles and blogs for a variety of sports including MLB, NFL and MMA. Follow him on Twitter @RealChrisOlson

Last Week's Picks

Tuesday

Game:
CLE at BOS
Umpire: Mike Muchlinski
Recommendation: Trevor Bauer, RHP: 1.2 IP, 6 H, 5 R, BB, K

Bauer was unable to make it out of the second inning after a strikeout with the bases loaded was ruled a foul tip, which led to a bases-clearing double to left field. I thought Muchlinski was a candidate to accentuate Bauer's strikeout propensity while helping to limit his walks, as he has notched a 3.6:1 K:BB ratio in 22 games, but Bauer didn't stick around long enough to test that hypothesis.

Game:
SEA at TEX
Umpire: James Hoye
Recommendation: Franklin Gutierrez, OF: N/A

Both Gonzalez and Hoye fared much better in the contest than their stats would have suggested, as Chi Chi settled down after surrendering a two-run homer in the first. Hoye has seen just four walks in the last two contests, but could still be worth a look when searching for officials with tight zonez, as his 6.2 walks per game puts him in the bottom-15 umpires in the league in that category.

Wednesday

Game:
MIA at MIL
Umpire: Ben May
Recommendation: Wily Peralta, RHP: 5 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO

Despite what seemed like some advantages in the matchup, Peralta was hit hard almost immediately, as he allowed a two-run homer to Justin Bour in the first inning. Despite the disastrous result, May remains an umpire capable of helping our pitchers get their share of points, as he has allowed the fewest runs per game this season (6.0) while seeing 16.9 strikeouts per game, placing him in a tie for the second most in the league.

Game:
ARI at PIT
Umpire: Manny Gonzalez
Recommendation: A.J. Pollock, OF: 0-For-3, BB

It was a week to forget in the DYD universe, as opposing starter J.A. Happ threw one of his best games of the season, shutting out the Diamondbacks for six innings en route to a win. Gonzalez, who saw 16 runs cross the plate when the Mariners faced the A's on Monday, has seen the fifth-most runs per game this year (9.6).

Thursday

Game:
CHW at ANA
Umpire: Mike Estabrook
Recommendation: Jose Quintana, LHP: 6 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Quintana took mercy on us with a solid outing, but the 3:2 K:BB ratio wasn't quite what I had in mind when selecting Estabrook, who had notched a 3.7:1 ratio in his previous four outings. The 10 runs seen by Estabrook were the most since Detroit and Tampa Bay put up 12 runs in a game July 28.

This Week's Picks

Tuesday

Game:
BOS at CHW
Umpire: Mark Ripperger
Recommendation: Wade Miley, LHP

Ripperger should be viewed as one of the more favorable umpires when it comes to racking up strikeouts, as he is tied for the second-most punchouts per game this season (16.9), while only Jerry Layne has called less than his 4.2 walks per game. Miley has been inconsistent this year, but it will be hard to stay away from him as a low-cost option, as the White Sox are the second-worst team in baseball against southpaws according to wRC+ (71).

Game:
OAK at SEA
Umpire: Jim Reynolds
Recommendation: Brett Lawrie, 3B

Regression took it's toll on opposing starter Mike Montgomery after he posted a 1.62 ERA over six starts in June, as he has a 7.22 ERA and a 6.2 BB/9 in seven games following the All-Star break. Having Reynolds behind the plate could make it that much harder for Montgomery, as he has issued 6.2 walks per game this season, which is tied for the 14-highest mark among 86 umpires. Brett Lawrie has handled lefties well in 2015, tallying a .292 batting average and a .208 ISO against his opposite hand in 120 at-bats.

Wednesday

Game:
NYM at PHI
Umpire: Bruce Dreckman
Recommendation: Ryan Howard, 1B

Bartolo Colon has been getting absolutely pounded in the second half of the season, notching a 6.08 ERA after the All-Star break. Dreckman may not offer much reprieve from the 23-run outburst the two teams put together Monday, as he has seen 9.2 runs per game in his 13 appearances this season, while calling an average of just 12 strikeouts over his last four games.

Thursday

Game:
STL at ARI
Umpire: Jim Joyce
Recommendation: Jason Heyward, OF

Joyce seems like an ideal selection in the Arizona heat, as he has seen more runs than any umpire this season at 10.4 per game and is tied for the sixth-most free passes per game (6.5). Rubby De La Rosa has allowed 2.1 HR/9 against left-handers this season, while also doling out 3.4 BB/9 against southpaws.

Game:
PIT at MIA
Umpire: Alan Porter
Recommendation: Starling Marte, OF

It's a rare occurrence when we find two useable umpires on a Thursday, but that's the case this week, as Porter comes in sporting the second-highest walks per game mark for any umpire this season (7.0). Rookie southpaw Justin Nicolino has struck out just six of the 94 righty batters he has faced over 23 innings, and a tight zone should do him no favors against the potent bats in the Pittsburgh lineup.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Christopher Olson plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: Sommerset, FanDuel: Christop, Yahoo: Martins.