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Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Cy Young Run Away

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change, so if you see something that looks incorrect, assume that it was a change that occurred since this was written and feel free to politely bring it up in the comments, I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week Aug. 31 - Sept. 6

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

RankPitcherOppComments
1David PriceCLE, BALExcelling with his new team: 1.98 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 29% K rate is up from 23% w/DET
2Chris Saleat MIN, at KCSince the two 7 ER games in a row: 1.59 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 43 Ks in 28.3 IP going at least 7 IP in all four
3Chris Archerat BAL, at NYY
4Dallas KeuchelSEA
5Corey Kluberat DET
6Felix Hernandezat HOU, at OAKStrong outing vs. OAK (8 IP/2 ER), but I don't think the panic was unfounded
7Sonny GrayLAA
8Cole Hamelsat SDHe's allowed 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 ER with TEX; now has back-to-back Ws and three straight QS (2.57 ERA in 21 IP)
9Justin Verlanderat KC, CLE
10Johnny CuetoDET, CWSI try not to overreact to aces struggling, but with Cueto it's tougher bc it often signifies something more so I'm monitoring closely here
11Masahiro Tanakaat BOSHas 5 QS in a row and 9 of 10: 3.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 4.2 K:BB ratio in 68.3 IP; K% down by month, though: 27%, 25%, 21%, 20%
12Jake Odorizziat NYY
13Scott KazmirMIN
14Lance McCullersMINHe'll get the Twins twice in a row starting this Sunday; awesome in return from break in the minors
15Hisashi Iwakumaat OAK
16Garrett RichardsTEX
17Taijuan Walkerat HOUWas dealing (6.3 scoreless IP) before a hip flexor cramp took him out; stay tuned to RW news for status updates
18Michael Pinedaat BOS
19Danny Salazarat TOR, at DETLast two starts were in BOS and NYY and now he's headed to TOR and DET?! Don't love that for the HR-prone youngster
20Hector Santiagoat OAK, TEXFewer than 6 IP in six of eight starts in the 2H: 5.23 ERA, 1.48 WHIP; every IP from here on out sets a new career-high
21Marco EstradaCLEAn out short of 5 straight QS in August; quietly having a fantastic season for TOR
22Derek Hollandat LAANot a huge surprise that TOR got him for 3 HR, but only 4 ER in the 6 IP is actually not too bad
23Luis SeverinoTBLooks fantastic through four starts, but it's four starts so the book is still being written on him
24Jose Quintanaat KC
25Collin McHughSEASEA blitzed him for 8 ER in mid-June and left him with season-high 5.04 ERA, since: 2.84 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, & 21% K (up to 25% in Aug.)
26Nathan EovaldiTBFewer than 6 IP in six of his L10, but three of the four 6+ IP outings have come in August (2.92 ERA in the 10 starts)
27Erasmo Ramirezat BAL
28Nate Karnsat NYY
29Andrew Heaneyat OAKTOR has accounted for 32% of his ER this year blasting him for 8 ER; allowed 17 ER in other 11 starts combined
30Eduardo RodriguezNYYHighly volatile, but still much more good than bad
31Kevin GausmanTB
32Chris TillmanTBA 2.96 ERA in seven 2H starts has helped Tillman cut his ERA by nearly a full run from 5.40 to 4.58
33Kyle GibsonCWSEither great or terrible in five Aug. starts: 2, 8, 2, 6, 2, 0 ER; 3+ BB in three of his L4 starts
34Jeff Samardzijaat KC
35Carlos Rodonat MINThis is what it looks like when he's rolling: 1.61 ERA, 1.00 ERA, 29 Ks in 28 IP over 4 starts; still super-volatile, but the upside is great
36Mike FiersMIN
37Kris MedlenCWSSolid baseline QS in return to the rotation; perfect team for him as they can take 5 IP every time out with that bullpen
38Chris BassittLAAHad his first rough start since joining the rotation last time out, still running him out there in most formats
39R.A. DickeyCLEOnly 4 non-QS in his L17: 3.36 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 109.7 IP
40Edinson VolquezDET
41Drew Smylyat BAL
42Scott FeldmanSEAAllowed 4 ER in return from DL on Jul 18th, but has allowed just 8 ER in six starts since, good for a 1.80 ERA in 40 IP
43Mark BuehrleBAL13-game QS streak was snapped in PHI of all places (4 IP/4 ER); hasn't K'd more than 3 in any of his L9
44Yovani Gallardoat SD
45Drew HutchisonBALIt's at home where he has a 2.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 80.7 IP
46Yordano VenturaDETDominant of late: 1.08 ERA & WHIP with 32 Ks in 25 IP
47Matt Shoemakerat OAKReturned from demotion to drop 7.3 one-hit IP on the Tigers
48Jesse ChavezSEA
49Rick PorcelloNYY, PHIBrilliant return from the DL (7 scoreless IP); actually good in 3 of 4 prior to the DL good for a 3.33 ERA in his L5 (27 IP)
50Martin Perezat LAA
51Aaron BrooksLAA, SEATOR obliterated him after two good starts, I'm interested to see his return
52Roenis Eliasat HOU
53Joe KellyPHIOpened the month with 5 ER vs. TB, has allowed 5 ER total in his L4 starts (1.82 ERA in 24.7 IP); 5 straight Ws as he won the TB outing

SIT

RankPitcherOppComments
54Wade MileyPHIThe problem with Miley is that when it's bad, it's really bad: 5 starts of 0-2 ER, 4 starts of 5+ ER in his L9 starts
55Henry OwensNYY
56Wei-Yin ChenTB, at TORat TOR is enough for me to pass, he has somehow avoided his divisional foes all year
57Colby Lewisat SD, at LAA
58Danny DuffyCWS
59Ivan Novaat BOS, TBNot doing enough good to justify taking the risk of his downside
60Randy Wolfat KCYou don't wanna be around when that 0% HR/FB regresses, though his career-low 33% FB rate helps; a third gem would certainly impress
61Ervin Santanaat HOUSkills just aren't there to trust him at all
62Trevor Bauerat TOR
63Miguel Gonzalezat TOR
64Ubaldo Jimenezat TOR
65John Danksat MINDon't get enticed by the solid outings, they're fool's gold
66Jered WeaverTEX
67Felix DoubrontSEA
68Mike Montgomeryat OAK
69Tyler DuffeyCWS, at HOU
70Mike Pelfreyat HOU
71Buck FarmerCLE
72Matt Boydat KC
73Tommy MiloneCWS
74Alfredo SimonCLE
75Cody Andersonat TOR

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

RankPitcherOppComments
1Zack GreinkeSF, at SDYou're trying too hard if you don't think Greinke is running away with the NL Cy ... it's a 1.61 ERA five months into the seasons
2Clayton KershawSFOnce again super-elite and deserves plenty of 2nd place votes for the Cy, but ONE POINT SIX ONE in 179.3 IP
3Jacob deGromat MIAHis 0.94 WHIP is tremendous ... and 0.09 away from Greinke's 0.85 WHIP
4Jake ArrietaARI
5Stephen StrasburgATLHe's had two bad innings in August: 1.73 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, 34% K, 3% BB
6Max Scherzerat STLIt's all about the HR , has allowed 7 in 28 IP en route to a 6.43 ERA; 30% K and 6% BB rates calm most worries
7Gerrit Coleat MIL
8Michael WachaWASJust two Ks shy of a 1 K/IP over his L15 starts (92 in 94 IP)
9Matt HarveyPHISkipped start didn't seem to bother him: 6 IP/1 ER with 2 H, 8 Ks, 1 BB
10Jon LesterARIGot right back on track after shellacking by DET
11Lance LynnPIT
12Madison Bumgarnerat LAD, at COLWouldn't be surprised if he comes out of Coors relatively unscathed given the way he's throwing so only a small downgrade
13Francisco Lirianoat MIL
14Noah Syndergaardat MIAHas been OK in B2B road starts, but it boiled down to two bad innings among the 10
15Joe Rossat STL, ATL
16John LackeyWAS, PIT
17Tyson RossTEX, LADStill hasn't allowed >4 ER in any start this season; WHIP is the downside with him, but does enough good to overcome
18Shelby MillerMIA, at WAS
19Carlos MartinezWAS
20Julio Teheranat WASFive straight QS in August: 2.73 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 22% K, 4% BB in 33 IP
21Jaime GarciaPIT
22Raisel Iglesiasat CHCB2B 10+ K games and six straight QS; since ASB: 2.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 30% K, 7% BB in 51.3 IP
23James ShieldsLAD
24Jordan ZimmermannATLK% has spiked to 27% in August, it's only yielded a 4.31 ERA despite a solid 1.09 WHIP
25Andrew CashnerTEX, LADIt still looks great in flashes and even for entire starts sometimes, but it just hasn't come together as expected this year
26Jimmy NelsonPIT, at CIN
27Mike Leakeat LADSolid in two starts since return; hopefully he's entirely past the hamstring
28Jason HammelCIN
29Ian KennedyTEXSince the ASB: 2.32 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 26% K, 8% BB in 50.3 IP
30Taylor JungmannPITHas shown enough to hold on even after the tough starts; he's bounced back with scoreless outings after his 3 worst starts
31Aaron Nolaat NYM
32Gio Gonzalezat STL, ATLHas a 5.68 ERA in five Aug starts despite 25 Ks in 25.3 IP and just a 7% BB; 12.5 H/9 and .402 BABIP have sunk him
33Brett AndersonSF, at SD
34Charlie Mortonat STLI swear every time I start recommending him, he has a bad outing ... every single time; so I'm totally NOT interested in him *wink, wink*
35J.A. Happat STLNot surprised PIT has made something of his solid skills so far as he was better than the 4.64 ERA with SEA
36Kyle HendricksCIN, ARI
37Jon NiesePHI
38Tom KoehlerNYMWith his skill set, I think there is viability behind his home/road split (3.06 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 64.7 IP)
39Anthony DeSclafaniat CHC
40Jerad Eickhoffat NYM, at BOSShowing some good things, but it's kinda the Robbie Ray model with lots of hard contact, high FB%, no homers
41Bartolo ColonPHI, at MIAEven with PHI playing better of late, this is an ideal two-start setup
42Wily Peraltaat CIN
43John LambMILLove the Ks, but severe FB lean suggests the HRs are likely to stick around, too
44Alex Woodat SDWood & Latos have given the Dodgers a 5.15 ERA in 43.7 IP
45Mat Latosat SDLatos admittedly doing more of the damage, but Wood has been far from special
46Robbie Rayat CHCThe weird thing about his regression is that it hasn't been HR-driven at all: 0 HR in his L3 starts; stream option now
47Jeff Lockeat MIL, at STLBetter two-start for a lefty than you might think: 29th and 23rd in wRC+ vs. southpaws, respectively
48Dan HarenCIN

SIT

RankPitcherOppComments
49Patrick Corbinat COL, at CHCHe's been mostly good in his 10 starts back from TJ, but this is a pretty daunting pair of venues so I'm inclined to pass in most formats
50Jorge De La RosaSF
51Colin ReaLAD
52Jake Peavyat LAD, at COLThe direct opposite of Colon's two-step: 1st and 2nd best teams at home vs. RHP
53Rubby De La Rosaat COLSome killer lefties PLUS Coors? Firm pass, even with the 7 IP/1 ER at Coors earlier this year
54Chris Hestonat COLHas allowed 6 ER twice this year ... both in Coors
55Chase Andersonat COL
56Randall Delgadoat COLI'm pro-Delgado overall, but not in Coors
57Ryan Vogelsongat COL
58Jhoulys Chacinat CHCTalented arm trying to rebuild with ARI; strong first start, but need more before trusting after a 1.8 K:BB ratio in 330 IP from '12-14
59Jon GrayARIHalf of his ER came in 1.7 IP vs. NYM, has shown some nice skills in his other four starts
60Matt Wislerat WAS
61Kendry Floresat ATL, NYM
62Mike FoltynewiczMIA, at WAS
63Matt GarzaPIT
64Williams PerezMIA
65Adam Conleyat ATL
66Justin Nicolinoat ATL12 K, 11 BB in 37 IP is why I'm paying zero attention to the 3.65 ERA
67Adam Morganat BOS
68Aaron Harangat NYM
69Chris RusinSF
70Yohan FlandeARI, SF
71Keyvius SampsonMIL
72Brad HandNYM
73Alec Asherat BOSAnother piece from the Hamels trade, we'll see if he can find as much early success as Eickhoff
74Chad BettisARI, SF
75Tyler Cravyat CIN
76David Holmbergat CHC, MIL

MLB TOP 100

RankPitcherOppComments
1Zack GreinkeSF, at SDYou're trying too hard if you don't think Greinke is running away with the NL Cy ... it's a 1.61 ERA five months into the seasons
2David PriceCLE, BALExcelling with his new team: 1.98 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 29% K rate is up from 23% with DET
3Chris Saleat MIN, at KCSince the two 7 ER games in a row: 1.59 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 43 Ks in 28.3 IP going at least 7 IP in all four
4Chris Archerat BAL, at NYY
5Clayton KershawSFOnce again super-elite and deserves plenty of 2nd place votes for the Cy, but ONE POINT SIX ONE in 179.3 IP
6Jacob deGromat MIAHis 0.94 WHIP is tremendous ... and 0.09 away from Greinke's 0.85 WHIP
7Jake ArrietaARI
8Stephen StrasburgATLHe's had two bad innings in August: 1.73 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, 34% K, 3% BB
9Max Scherzerat STLIt's all about the HR , has allowed 7 in 28 IP en route to a 6.43 ERA; 30% K and 6% BB rates calm most worries
10Gerrit Coleat MIL
11Michael WachaWASJust two Ks shy of a 1 K/IP over his L15 starts (92 in 94 IP)
12Matt HarveyPHISkipped start didn't seem to bother him: 6 IP/1 ER with 2 H, 8 Ks, 1 BB
13Dallas KeuchelSEA
14Jon LesterARIGot right back on track after shellacking by DET
15Corey Kluberat DET
16Felix Hernandezat HOU, at OAKStrong outing vs. OAK (8 IP/2 ER), but I don't think the panic was unfounded
17Sonny GrayLAA
18Cole Hamelsat SDHe's allowed 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 ER with TEX; now has back-to-back Ws and three straight QS (2.57 ERA in 21 IP)
19Justin Verlanderat KC, CLE
20Johnny CuetoDET, CWSI try not to overreact to aces struggling, but with Cueto it's tougher bc it often signifies something more so I'm monitoring closely here
21Lance LynnPIT
22Madison Bumgarnerat LAD, at COLWouldn't be surprised if he comes out of Coors relatively unscathed given the way he's throwing so only a small downgrade
23Francisco Lirianoat MIL
24Noah Syndergaardat MIAHas been OK in B2B road starts, but it boiled down to two bad innings among the 10
25Joe Rossat STL, ATL
26John LackeyWAS, PIT
27Tyson RossTEX, LADStill hasn't allowed >4 ER in any start this season; WHIP is the downside with him, but does enough good to overcome
28Shelby MillerMIA, at WAS
29Carlos MartinezWAS
30Julio Teheranat WASFive straight QS in August: 2.73 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 22% K, 4% BB in 33 IP
31Jaime GarciaPIT
32Raisel Iglesiasat CHCB2B 10+ K games and six straight QS; since ASB: 2.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 30% K, 7% BB in 51.3 IP
33James ShieldsLAD
34Masahiro Tanakaat BOSHas 5 QS in a row and 9 of 10: 3.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 4.2 K:BB ratio in 68.3 IP; K% down by month, though: 27%, 25%, 21%, 20%
35Jake Odorizziat NYY
36Scott KazmirMIN
37Lance McCullersMINHe'll get the Twins twice in a row starting this Sunday; awesome in return from break in the minors
38Jordan ZimmermannATLK% has spiked to 27% in August, it's only yielded a 4.31 ERA despite a solid 1.09 WHIP
39Andrew CashnerTEX, LADIt still looks great in flashes and even for entire starts sometimes, but it just hasn't come together as expected this year
40Jimmy NelsonPIT, at CIN
41Hisashi Iwakumaat OAK
42Garrett RichardsTEX
43Taijuan Walkerat HOUWas dealing (6.3 scoreless IP) before a hip flexor cramp took him out; stay tuned to RW news for status updates
44Michael Pinedaat BOS
45Danny Salazarat TOR, at DETLast two starts were in BOS and NYY and now he's headed to TOR and DET?! Don't love that for the HR-prone youngster
46Hector Santiagoat OAK, TEXFewer than 6 IP in six of eight starts in the 2H: 5.23 ERA, 1.48 WHIP; every IP from here on out sets a new career-high
47Marco EstradaCLEAn out short of 5 straight QS in August; quietly having a fantastic season for TOR
48Derek Hollandat LAANot a huge surprise that TOR got him for 3 HR, but only 4 ER in the 6 IP is actually not too bad
49Luis SeverinoTBLooks fantastic through four starts, but it's four starts so the book is still being written on him
50Mike Leakeat LADSolid in two starts since return; hopefully he's entirely past the hamstring
51Jason HammelCIN
52Ian KennedyTEXSince the ASB: 2.32 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 26% K, 8% BB in 50.3 IP
53Taylor JungmannPITHas shown enough to hold on even after the tough starts; he's bounced back with scoreless outings after his 3 worst starts
54Jose Quintanaat KC
55Collin McHughSEASEA blitzed him for 8 ER in mid-June and left him with season-high 5.04 ERA, since: 2.84 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, & 21% K (up to 25% in Aug.)
56Nathan EovaldiTBFewer than 6 IP in six of his L10, but three of the four 6+ IP outings have come in August (2.92 ERA in the 10 starts)
57Erasmo Ramirezat BAL
58Nate Karnsat NYY
59Andrew Heaneyat OAKTOR has accounted for 32% of his ER this year blasting him for 8 ER; allowed 17 ER in other 11 starts combined
60Eduardo RodriguezNYYHighly volatile, but still much more good than bad
61Kevin GausmanTB
62Chris TillmanTBA 2.96 ERA in seven 2H starts has helped Tillman cut his ERA by nearly a full run from 5.40 to 4.58
63Kyle GibsonCWSEither great or terrible in five Aug. starts: 2, 8, 2, 6, 2, 0 ER; 3+ BB in three of his L4 starts
64Jeff Samardzijaat KC
65Carlos Rodonat MINThis is what it looks like when he's rolling: 1.61 ERA, 1.00 ERA, 29 Ks in 28 IP over 4 starts; still super-volatile, but the upside is great
66Mike FiersMIN
67Kris MedlenCWSSolid baseline QS in return to the rotation; perfect team for him as they can take 5 IP every time out with that bullpen
68Chris BassittLAAHad his first rough start since joining the rotation last time out, still running him out there in most formats
69Aaron Nolaat NYM
70Gio Gonzalezat STL, ATLHas a 5.68 ERA in five Aug starts despite 25 Ks in 25.3 IP and just a 7% BB; 12.5 H/9 and .402 BABIP have sunk him
71Brett AndersonSF, at SD
72Charlie Mortonat STLI swear every time I start recommending him, he has a bad outing ... every single time; so I'm totally NOT interested in him *wink, wink*
73J.A. Happat STLNot surprised PIT has made something of his solid skills so far as he was better than the 4.64 ERA with SEA
74R.A. DickeyCLEOnly 4 non-QS in his L17: 3.36 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 109.7 IP
75Edinson VolquezDET
76Kyle HendricksCIN, ARI
77Jon NiesePHI
78Tom KoehlerNYMWith his skill set, I think there is viability behind his home/road split (3.06 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 64.7 IP)
79Anthony DeSclafaniat CHC
80Jerad Eickhoffat NYM, at BOSShowing some good things, but it's kinda the Robbie Ray model with lots of hard contact, high FB%, no homers
81Bartolo ColonPHI, at MIAEven with PHI playing better of late, this is an ideal two-start setup
82Wily Peraltaat CIN
83John LambMILLove the Ks, but severe FB lean suggests the HRs are likely to stick around, too
84Alex Woodat SDWood & Latos have given the Dodgers a 5.15 ERA in 43.7 IP
85Mat Latosat SDLatos admittedly doing more of the damage, but Wood has been far from special
86Robbie Rayat CHCThe weird thing about his regression is that it hasn't been HR-driven at all: 0 HR in his L3 starts; stream option now
87Jeff Lockeat MIL, at STLBetter two-start for a lefty than you might think: 29th and 23rd in wRC+ vs. southpaws, respectively
88Dan HarenCIN
89Drew Smylyat BAL
90Scott FeldmanSEAAllowed 4 ER in return from DL on Jul 18th, but has allowed just 8 ER in six starts since, good for a 1.80 ERA in 40 IP
91Mark BuehrleBAL13-game QS streak was snapped in PHI of all places (4 IP/4 ER); hasn't K'd more than 3 in any of his L9
92Yovani Gallardoat SD
93Drew HutchisonBALIt's at home where he has a 2.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 80.7 IP
94Yordano VenturaDETDominant of late: 1.08 ERA & WHIP with 32 Ks in 25 IP
95Matt Shoemakerat OAKReturned from demotion to drop 7.3 one-hit IP on the Tigers
96Jesse ChavezSEA
97Rick PorcelloNYY, PHIBrilliant return from the DL (7 scoreless IP); actually good in 3 of 4 prior to the DL good for a 3.33 ERA in his L5 (27 IP)
98Martin Perezat LAA
99Aaron BrooksLAA, SEATOR obliterated him after two good starts, I'm interested to see his return
100Roenis Eliasat HOU