MLB Barometer: What's he Werth?

With two weeks to go and few FAAB dollars remaining, all I can do is put my best lineups forward, and hope for the best. If you're in contention for a league title and need wins and strikeouts -- but don't want to hurt your ratios -- there's a fine line we have to teeter with fringey waiver-wire options.

In a 15-team NFBC league that just relinquished first place after a 23 week reign, I'm trotting out Erik Johnson for a dangerous at DET/at NYY, hoping he fixes his control issues on the spot and ends the year strong. The Tigers and Yankees have struggled against RHP this month (both are bottom-third in baseball with OPS' under .750 -- hey, whatever I have to do to justify this two-step!). In another league looking to gain points in an overall competition, we settle for our fourth conditional bid in A's lefty, Sean Nolin (vs. TEX, vs. SF), after missing out on Brett Anderson, Ervin Santana and Jhoulys Chacin. Yet another league with a lead has to go with four closers to hold on tight.

With football, DFS action and a dozen other distractions, it's difficult to have that almighty clarity for Sunday FAAB day, figuring out where to spend those last few valuable dollars; or if you have no money left, watching others catch up as you take zeroes at a position. With two weeks left, it looks like I'm out of contention for both live event NFBC overall titles. Getting off to a hot start and fizzling toward the end is definitely more disappointing than falling short after grinding from behind as the underdog down the stretch.

Nevertheless, it's been another amazing and fun fantasy baseball season. The lessons are never-ending and the experiences are intangible. Hoping you all still love our hobby just as much as when you were preparing in March. Good luck these final two weeks!

RISERS

Jayson Werth (OF, WAS) - Werth has come on strong this month, providing the fantasy value that was non-existent over the first five months of the season. Werth has six HR this month with 15 RBI and 15 runs, slashing a lovely .290/.386/.978 -- providing protection to Bryce Harper as the cleanup hitter in a scorching Nats lineup. Werth missed a good chunk of the season (almost 2.5 months) and will end the year as a bust considering the relatively high price point (167 ADP). Most disappointing is Werth's .234 batting average, but it's quite likely that the batting average would be higher if he had not been hurt and the chance to get in a groove. With the wrist clearly no longer bothering him, Werth should continue to produce the last two weeks, and at the very least, make up the mostly lost season as we sprint toward the finish line. Werth turns 37 next spring and will almost certainly be available after the top-250 picks overall. It will be a spot worth considering him for perhaps one final hurrah of fantasy contribution.

Francisco Lindor (SS, CLE) - Lindor has been everything as advertised defensively -- and has exceeded our expectations with the bat -- exuding much maturity for a 21-year old. Many of us saved oodles of FAAB dollars bidding on Lindor instead of rookie phenom Carlos Correa (and the Twins Bryan Bust-xton), and as such have been provided with steady production, with Lindor ranking among the highest-ranked shortstops the last three months of the season. Although Correa has been more effective in power categories (17 HR, 53 RBI for Correa, 10/44 for Lindor), Lindor has been the more consistent hitter, entering Week 25 with more than a 40-point edge in batting average (.316 to .273) in similar at-bats (334 to 333). Lindor has settled in nicely as the No. 2 hitter tucked comfortably between Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley. This trio should be locked atop the Indians' lineup next season. Both Lindor and Correa will be popular early picks next season, projected to be drafted among the first five shortstops and quite possibly within the top-50 picks overall. A 20 HR/20 SB season with 90 runs and a .290-plus average is certainly within the realm of possibility next season.

Patrick Corbin (SP, ARI) - Corbin's return from Tommy John surgery has been one of baseball's most notable success stories of the 2015 season. Corbin went under the knife prior to the start of last season and made his first appearance on July 4 -- just 15 months after surgery. Over 14 starts, Corbin has maintained an ERA just less than 3.00 and has been incredibly consistent -- allowing two earned runs or less in 10 of those starts. Corbin has made it through at least six innings in each of his four September starts, and most impressively, has not allowed a walk this month (25.1 IP). Even more impressive is that the lefty's two-seamer and fastball velocity is up half a tick from his pre-surgery days. It's nice for the Diamondbacks to have some consistency in the rotation, and to have an official ace of the staff as they head into the final two weeks. Keep Corbin in mind next March as it's quite possible he flies under the radar among the multitude of more popular starting pitchers. Despite the hitter-friendly home park, the NL West is still a great place for pitchers to call home.

Josh Tomlin (SP, CLE) - Talk about a waiver wire gem. Fantasy folks (and specifically, DFS players) keep waiting for the correction that doesn't seem to be coming. Tomlin underwent shoulder surgery in early April and missed more than three months. He returned for a start against the Twins on Aug. 15, allowing two home runs in just over six innings pitched. Tomlin has now made eight starts and is maintaining a masterful 0.74 WHIP to go with 2.43 ERA and 6-2 record. Through 55 innings, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is an incredible 52:6. His fastball velocity is below league average (88 mph) and he's an extreme flyball pitcher, but is more strategic and patient attacking corners and angles in the same way he plays poker. Tomlin is one of the team's best card players, dubbed "The Little Cowboy" by former manager Manny Acta. Tomlin is playing the best ball of his career. Although it's most likely a bit above his head, let's not forget about another Indians pitcher who turned his career around at age 30. Some guy named Cliff Lee.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Xander Bogaerts (SS, BOS) - Hitting .372 this month and .322 this year, let's not forget Bogaerts is just 22 -- one year older than Lindor and two years older than Correa. Bogaerts doesn't profile as a power hitter, but 15 to 20 homer-power is definitely in the cards. He has earned the three-hole spot in the Red Sox lineup and will be a key cog in the post-David Ortiz era in Beantown for years to come. The shortstop position in fantasy is exciting again.

Wil Myers (OF, SD) - Maybe 2016 is the year Myers finally reaches his potential? Or perhaps Rays' brass pulled a fast one on Padres' GM AJ Preller. Myers was "finally" healthy to start the year, but he has missed a couple good chunks of the season with a wrist injury, including a 60-day DL stint. He's back to leading off and playing center field, and totaled three HR and eight RBI since rejoining the team Sept. 4. He was 5-for-12 over the weekend, but that's Coors Field. Let's see how it goes back at home and against those pesky Giants pitchers.

Stephen Strasburg (SP, WAS) - Doing everything he can to win back the hearts of us fantasy owners who took him in the second round and swore him as "dead-to-me." Three consecutive outings with double-digit strikeouts (37:3 K:BB ratio in 22.1 IP) and doing his part to keep the Nats in the playoff race. With the depth of reliable starting pitchers nowadays, Stras can easily fall outside the first four rounds of 12-teamers next season. There's an inherent risk with drafting Strasburg, but every one of us have to have a price point at which he's worth the gamble.

Tom Wilhelmsen (RP, SEA) - Taking the job and running with it, Wilhelmsen last gave up a run more than a month ago (Aug. 16). A 12:2 K:BB ratio with 10 saves since taking over for Carson Smith on Aug. 23.

OTHER RISERS

Danny Valencia (3B, OAK), Eddie Rosario (OF, MIN), Adrian Beltre (3B, TEX), Mikie Mahtook (OF, TB), Jake Peavy (SP, SF), Marcus Stroman (SP, TOR), Sean Nolin (SP, OAK)

FALLERS

Matt Wieters (C, BAL) - Fantasy owners have been holding on to Wieters based on name alone. Leaving Wieters in your lineup means giving away free stats with waiver wire C2 options like Cameron Rupp, Kurt Suzuki and even part-timer Ryan Hanigan beating Wieters out in counting categories on a weekly basis. Wieters returned on June 5. Even then, with almost four months of 249 plate appearances, Wieters has just six HR and 19 RBI to show for it. Although he had full recovery time, he clearly isn't the same hitter. For one, his strikeout rate has skyrocketed to 26 percent -- up from a steady 17 to 18 percent the last three years. Recently, he's been getting every other day off, and Thursday night he wore the Golden Sombrero, striking out on all four plate appearances against the Rays. Heading into free agency, Wieters may land with an NL team for 2016. He could return to his roots and join the Braves (Georgia Tech alum), or could end up with the Nationals along with the bevy of other Scott Boras clients (Harper, Scherzer, Strasburg). As for 2015, if you're still fighting for a cash spot in your league, go ahead and dump Wieters for J.P. Arencibia, Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Rockies' rookie backstop Dustin Garneau, who gets an all-Coors week.

Jacoby Ellsbury (OF, NYY) - What has it come to that we find ourselves having to bench our third-round pick and Yankees leadoff hitter? For starters, his .143 (9-for-63) September slump is among the worst in baseball. He has no extra-base hits this month and has posted a paltry .208/.247/.563 slash since the All-Star break. His 17 percent strikeout rate is a career high and doesn't seem to have that extra pep in his step in his age-32 season (caught stealing eight of 26 attempts). Ellsbury hit .318 before the All-Star break, but clearly hasn't been the same since returning from a right knee sprain in early June -- even if there is no correlation. Ellsbury has collected a hit in each of his last three games and heads to hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, but opposing pitchers David Price, Marco Estrada and Marcus Stroman may not be as friendly. If you do plan on sitting Ellsbury this week, keep in mind the magical powers of "fallers" in this column, and perhaps you'll think twice.

Shelby Miller (SP, ATL) - Speaking of players who need a boost, I'm selfishly adding Miller to the list of fallers as my NFBC Main Event team needs wins from this man more than ever this week. No pitcher in baseball has had less luck in this category than Shelby Miller, who still has not won a game since May 17 -- a stretch of 22 games without a victory! Miller was good enough over the first few months of the season to somehow manage his current 3.00 ERA, despite some recent damage. He has allowed 13 earned runs over his last three outings (in 14 IP) against the Nationals, Mets and the Blue Jays. Miller lines up for two road starts against the Mets and Marlins -- and the road is where his ERA lies nearly a full run higher (3.43 road, 2.63 home). If any starting pitcher was ever due, it's certainly Miller. Can the roto gods stop punishing him (and his fantasy owners) for just one week and score us a couple of wins?

Jacob deGrom (SP, NYM) - DeGrom has shown a more human side lately, getting roughed up for six earned a piece by the lowly Phillies and Marlins the last couple weeks. His 181 innings this year is uncharted territory as he's never topped 150 at any level and perhaps there's a bit of fatigue involved. The heavy-armed Mets will skip deGrom's spot in the rotation, which should still set him up for at least one more regular season start. He's allowed a .330 batting average to hitters his last five starts, and though he hasn't experienced reduced velocity, his pitches have been hanging up in the strike zone. Despite the struggles, deGrom has been one of the league's most impressive arms. He hopes to maintain his pinpoint control over the last start or two to keep that WHIP below 1.00 as he prepares for the ever-important playoff run.

DISHONORABLE MENTIONS

Kyle Schwarber (C, CHC) - Showing a bit of the other side of Babe Ruth, Schwarber has struck out in 10 of his last 27 at-bats. Schwarber was not expected to be called up so soon, but took the league by storm hitting .323 over his first five weeks in the big leagues and putting up monster August numbers (nine HR, 24 RBI) despite a .222 average. He's awful against lefties (.151/.224/.507), but he has a 1.023 OPS against righties. With catcher eligibility, will be wildly popular in draft rooms next March even if he goes 0-for-40 over the final two weeks.

Avisail Garcia (OF, CHW) - Garcia almost has a home in the dishonorable mentions list, or so it seems. A huge disappointment this season, Garcia's hot stretches have been few and far between. The White Sox have a doubleheader Monday and eight games total this week -- among them are four lefty arms, against whom Garcia hits .294 this year. Play him for one more week and then decide whether you'll ever consider him for your fantasy teams again.

Derek Holland (SP, TEX) - He teased us with a shutout and 11 strikeouts against the Orioles on Aug. 30 and followed it up with an eight-inning three-hitter against the Angels. Holland stunk up the joint on the following outing (five ER vs. Seattle), and we hoped for redemption for his two starts in Week 24. Instead, it was 12 ER and seven walks and only four strikeouts in 10 IP. So we drop him now as there's no reason to chance him against the Astros in Minute Maid Park. Owner of a career 4.21 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, he's a name we always think is better than he actually is. Holland has fantastic stuff and a great arsenal, but doesn't do well with harnessing it and is maddeningly inconsistent. Given great health reports, I'm willing to go back to the well for 2016 drafts, but more so as an upside bench stash.

Hector Santiago (SP, LAA) - Santiago may have put the nail in some of our roto coffins last week. The question I had to ask myself -- why was I still starting him? There are many cases every September when a pitcher's arm looks kaput for the year, and it's best to let him sail away on the sea of free agency. I looked like a genius to my partner Andrew by around the All-Star break (2.33 ERA) since I pushed us to draft Santiago as our last SP in the 29th round. Now, he deservedly can throw a shoe at my head (good luck aiming 3,500 miles). Santiago has a 5.62 ERA since the All-Star break. There was a point a few weeks ago when it would have made sense to cut him ... "but after all he did for us?" Fantasy baseball is a game best played with emotions left at the door. After Santiago's most recent shellacking by the Twins (5 ER in 0.2 IP), my emotions are a blend of anger, sadness and disgust.

OTHER FALLERS

Yasmani Grandal (C, LAD), Albert Pujols (1B, LAA), Evan Longoria (3B, TB), Stephen Piscotty (OF, STL), Trevor Bauer (SP, CLE), Jaime Garcia (SP, STL), Luis Severino (SP, NYY)