This article is part of our Umpire Analysis series.
Last Week's Picks
Tuesday
Game: LAA at SEA
Umpire: Alan Porter
Recommendation:Robinson Cano, 2B 0-For-2, 2 BB
Angels starter Nick Tropeano gave up two runs and walked three over five innings, but the Mariners were unable to capitalize, allowing him to pick up a win. Those who continue to research throughout the week will want to see if you can catch Porter in a good matchup, as he has seen an average of 10.3 runs over his last six games.
Game: CIN at SF
Umpire: Andy Fletcher
Recommendation:Jay Bruce, OF: 1-For-5, RBI
A disappointment from our selection in a 17-run game, but those who went for a stack were likely rewarded, as they saw three home runs, five doubles and nine walks. Fletcher remains one of the best umpires for run production this season, having seen at least 12 cross the plate in three of his last six games.
Wednesday
Game: KC at CLE
Umpire: Ben May
Recommendation:Danny Salazar, RHP: 7 IP, 4 H, ER, 2 BB, 6 K
A home run by Mike Moustakas in the seventh inning ruined Salazar's clean stat line, but owners certainly can't complain, as the 25-year-old turned in his best performance in his last four outings. After a fairly consistent run, May has seen the runs pile up lately, as double-digit tallies have hit the scoreboard in four of his last seven games, bringing his season-high runs per game mark to 6.4 over 20 contests.
Game: COL at
Last Week's Picks
Tuesday
Game: LAA at SEA
Umpire: Alan Porter
Recommendation:Robinson Cano, 2B 0-For-2, 2 BB
Angels starter Nick Tropeano gave up two runs and walked three over five innings, but the Mariners were unable to capitalize, allowing him to pick up a win. Those who continue to research throughout the week will want to see if you can catch Porter in a good matchup, as he has seen an average of 10.3 runs over his last six games.
Game: CIN at SF
Umpire: Andy Fletcher
Recommendation:Jay Bruce, OF: 1-For-5, RBI
A disappointment from our selection in a 17-run game, but those who went for a stack were likely rewarded, as they saw three home runs, five doubles and nine walks. Fletcher remains one of the best umpires for run production this season, having seen at least 12 cross the plate in three of his last six games.
Wednesday
Game: KC at CLE
Umpire: Ben May
Recommendation:Danny Salazar, RHP: 7 IP, 4 H, ER, 2 BB, 6 K
A home run by Mike Moustakas in the seventh inning ruined Salazar's clean stat line, but owners certainly can't complain, as the 25-year-old turned in his best performance in his last four outings. After a fairly consistent run, May has seen the runs pile up lately, as double-digit tallies have hit the scoreboard in four of his last seven games, bringing his season-high runs per game mark to 6.4 over 20 contests.
Game: COL at LAD
Umpire: John Tumpane
Recommendation:Alex Wood, LHP: 8 IP, H, 5 K
It appears we got the recipe right, as Wood rebounded from his worst start of the season to have what may have been his best start of the season. There are a number of factors that likely contributed to the dominant outing, but it's hard to overlook Tumpane, who has seen six runs or fewer in seven of his last 10 games.
Thursday
Game: Oak at CHW
Umpire: D.J. Reyburn
Recommendation: N/A
Ultimately, I was hesitant to give a recommendation in what seemed like a hitter's environment, but Reyburn, Jose Quintana and Sean Nolin all did their part in limiting offense, as the game saw just six runs and five walks. The stingy total is the continuation of a streak for Reyburn, who has seen seven runs or less in each of his last six outings.
This Week's Picks
Tuesday
Game: TB at BOS
Umpire: James Hoye
Recommendation:Xander Bogaerts, SS
I recommended opposing starter Matt Moore as a stack target during the DFS Podcast on Monday. I will double down on Hoye, who is in the top 15 in runs seen per game this season (9.2) and has called ball four 6.4 times per game, which ties him for ninth highest among 86 listed umpires. There were just six runs and three walks tallied when the Yankees faced the Mets in Hoye's last outing Sept. 18, but his three games before that yielded an average of 14 runs and nine walks per contest.
Game: ARI at LAD
Umpire: Hunter Wendelstedt
Recommendation:Alex Wood, LHP
Fresh off his tremendous outing last week, we find reason to give Wood another look, as the groundball pitcher is facing an Arizona team that is tied for 25th out of 30 teams in fly ball percentage this season. Wendelstedt could help Wood log another high point total, as he has seen just 7.4 runs per game, which is tied for sixth lowest.
Wednesday
Game: ATL at NYM
Umpire: Paul Schrieber
Recommendation:Lucas Duda, 1B
Duda has largely disappointed after his breakout season in 2014, but is still showing tremendous power, logging a .218 ISO over 125 games. Schrieber is among the top-10 umpires in runs seen per game (9.4), which could spell trouble for Williams Perez, whose ERA sits at 5.16 through 21 games (18 starts).
Game: MIL at CHC
Umpire: Paul Nauert
Recommendation:Kyle Hendricks, RHP
The Brewers have been a strong matchup option for most of the season, and could bring out the best in Hendricks, as they are tied for the seventh-lowest fly ball rate in the league, and the eighth-worst mark on the road this season according to wRC+. Nauert's strikeout and walk numbers don't quite suggest a tight zone, but the 7.7 runs per game he has seen in 26 contests puts him in the bottom-15 umpires in that category.
Thursday
Game: ARI at LAD
Umpire: David Rackley
Recommendation:Clayton Kershaw, LHP
It goes without saying that you don't need a particular umpire behind the plate to get a good performance from Kershaw, but Rackley seems to be the only useable umpire Thursday, which gives me an opportunity to talk about the best pitcher in the game. Some of what we noted for Wood also applies to Kershaw, as both men are groundball pitchers, but Kershaw's fantastic 11.4 K/9 rate could come into play against the Diamondbacks, as they strikeout 21 percent of the time against left-handed pitching. Rackley could be an option to provide us with a low total, as he has seen just 7.6 runs per game this season.
