Regan's Rumblings: Overvalued And Undervalued For 2016

In one of a small handful of these columns I have left in me this year, I'm going to cover a few guys I'll be targeting next year and a few others that I will likely avoid. Now by "avoid", it doesn't necessarily mean I won't end up rostering one or more of these guys, but I likely won't do so unless his value falls well below his projected ADP. Let's take a look at a few guys in each category.

TARGET

A.J. Pollock (OF, ARI) – As I start typing this, I'm doubting myself as to whether Pollock will truly be underrated next year. Playing under the considerable shadow of one Paul Goldschmidt and doing so outside of a top media market has allowed Pollock to fly under the radar, though most knowledgeable fantasy owners of course know all about the guy. Pollock is batting .321/.369/.503 with 18 homers, 34 steals, 104 runs, and 70 RBI. Simply put, he's been a five-category fantasy monster providing first-round value this year. He's also a great defender who hits both LHP and RHP very well, so no platoon worries to be found here. I'd prefer a BB-rate a bit higher than 7.4 percent, but that number is up from last year's 6.6 percent and he rarely strikes out with a 13.1 percent K-rate. Pollock started showing this level of production last year before a broken hand derailed his season, so this isn't a fluke. I wouldn't hesitate drafting him in the second round next year.

Joey Votto (1B, CIN) – Fully healthy now, Votto isn't going to be all that undervalued next year, but a case can be made for picking him as high as No. 3 overall, though he'll probably be valued more in the 9-12 range. Just look at Votto's second-half numbers. They are downright Bondsian: .366/.552/.660, 13 HR and 50 runs scored in 60 games. Factor in an unbelievable 28.9 percent second-half BB-rate and you have a guy who looks to have the vision of a young Superman. Hopefully the Reds can find a reliable top-of-the-order hitter this winter.

Addison Russell (2B/SS, CHC) – Personally, I'm glad Russell is hitting a disappointing .237/.300/.388 in 487 PA's with the Cubs. He's a massive talent who is still just 21. Russell had played a total of just 14 Triple-A games prior to his promotion this year, so he's still raw and he was a bit rushed. A career .301/.377/.520 minor league hitter, Russell has always been far younger than the average player at each level and he's learning on the job this year. At 29.7 percent, his strikeout rate has been Russell's main point of contention, but he's shown improvement there, posting a 19.5 percent rate in July and a 25.5 percent mark in August, though that's regressed this month to well over 30 percent. Russell may not have his breakout next year, but he's a talent worth rolling the dice on, and as a bonus, he'll qualify at both middle infield spots in most leagues.

Kyle Seager (3B, SEA) – 2016 could very well be the last year that Seager ends up getting an ADP higher than that of his brother Corey, but there are certainly signs that Kyle could be in for a 2016 breakout. At .276/.335/.466 with 25 home runs, Seager's production this year has been in line with his previous three seasons, but there are a few things pointing towards a very strong 2016. First, the lefty swinger is batting .312/.336/.526 with 12 home runs against LHP. Last year he hit just .242/.291/.370 with four home runs against them. His OPS against RHP is just .756, but if he can carry over his success against lefties while seeing his numbers versus RHP normalize to 2012-2014 levels, we could see him jump to something along the lines of .290-35-110.

Raisel Iglesias (SP, CIN) – Iglesias' final numbers won't reflect how well he's done over the second half of the season. In 66 innings (11 starts) since the break, Iglesias ranks sixth in the majors with a 10.5 K/9 and he's also improved his control, posting a solid 2.6 BB/9. Thanks to a high 1.2 HR/9, his ERA in those starts is a bit higher than we'd expect given his ratios at 3.39. A 19.6 percent HR/FB rate is a large part of the issue and that's a number that should normalize closer to the 11 percent league average next year. His GB-rate is solid at 47.2 percent which will help given his home park.

Carlos Carrasco (SP, CLE) – I really thought Carrasco would be this year's Corey Kluber, not necessarily winning the AL Cy Young, but taking even another step forward after last year's 2.55 ERA. This year's 3.62 mark notwithstanding, it's been a solid year for the Cleveland righty, as he's improved his K/9 from 9.4 to 10.2 while maintaining excellent control in matching last year's 2.0 BB/9. The higher ERA can be explained in no small part by a HR/FB rate that's jumped from last year's 7.1 percent to an above-league average 12.9 percent. That should go down a bit next year and leave him among the league's elite starters.

Carson Smith (RP, SEA) – Despite his obvious superiority in most any measure, Smith is taking a backseat currently to closer Tom Wilhelmsen, but that should change this winter. Smith doesn't have a huge fastball, but it does average 92.9 mph and it's resulted in an 11.7 K/9 to go with a 2.8 BB/9 in 65 appearances. Factor in that he's generating nearly four GB's per FB and I full expect him to be the guy next April.

AVOID

Miguel Cabrera (1B/DH, DET) – He's already deal with ankle and calf injuries this year, and now Cabrera is dealing with a sore back. The 32-year-old has seen his ISO dip from .288 to .211 to .197 the last couple years and now it's certainly possible we could see further erosion in his skills to the point where his ability to hit for a high BA is impacted. We saw it with Albert Pujols around the same age, and while Pujols has turned things around a bit this year, I'm not seeing Cabrera hitting .337 again next year. His BB and K rates are still elite at 14.8 percent and 15.8 percent respectively, but his .383 BABIP is 30 points above his career mark and combined with the power decline, I'm probably going to look elsewhere if I'm picking in the first 10 slots of the first round next year.

Miguel Sano (3B/DH, MIN) – Maybe I just hate guys named "Miguel", but while the 13.8 AB/HR rate translates to 40 homers over a 550 at-bat season, it's still tough to look past a 37 percent K-rate. All the home runs and an inflated .425 BABIP have led to a respectable .277 BA, but Sano did hit .236 in 67 Double-A games in 2013, so there is precedence for a low BA. Sano does have a 16.2 percent BB-rate, and given he missed all of 2014 due to Tommy John surgery, he may be still shaking off some rust. Still, that BABIP and K-rate are alarming enough for me to avoid him in redraft leagues.

Yoenis Cespedes (OF, NYM) – The hype surrounding Cespedes is going to be crazy this offseason given what he's done in a huge media market over the last couple months. Cespedes is also a free agent who is probably going to command well north of $150 million in his next contract, potentially pushing him into the bottom part of the first round in some fantasy drafts. That said, I'm slotting him in this section of the article for a few reasons. First, his walk rate is regressing and sits at just 4.8 percent this year, calling into question his ability to sustain his current .291 BA. Second, he seems unlikely to repeat an inflated 19.8 percent HR/FB rate next year. Finally, I just feel like he'll be one of those guys that I'll put a particular value on but will have to reach for him if I really want him. I'll let someone else overpay.

Felix Hernandez (SP, SEA) – I don't want to say I'll avoid King Felix next year, but I'm just unlikely to pay the price (second or third round pick) to acquire his services. He'll turn 30 next year and there's no way of telling when or if a Sabathia-like decline will come, but 2,256 innings at age 29 is a LOT of innings, almost an unprecedented number of innings in the modern era. A few other factors would be his recent elbow soreness, an ugly 2.1 IP, 10 ER outing where we all thought "he's hurt, right?", and three more starts allowing seven or more runs. Hernandez has seen his ratios, although still good, take a step back to 8.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. His HR-rate has spiked, and his 3.71 FIP is his worst mark since 2008. I think he's still be excellent, but we may also be seeing the start of a decline phase.

Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA) – I wasn't that high on Cruz back in March, so that shows either how little I know, how unpredictable this game is, or perhaps a little of both. It stood to reason that being a year older at 34 and moving to a pitcher's park would drop his 40 homers from last year into the 25-30 range this year, so of course he has 42, with 26 of them coming away from Safeco. Cruz on the road against lefties (1.115 OPS) looks like a great DFS play, but what can we expect next year? Obviously he'll be another year older and clearly a 30 percent HR/FB rate can't be sustainable (we think). With a below average 34.7 percent FB-rate and some regression in that HR/FB rate, we'll probably predict 30 homers or so next year. The power won't disappear, but with my third round pick, I'd probably lean towards someone younger.

Carlos Martinez (SP, STL) – The Verducci Effect states that a pitcher under the age of 25 who tops his prior year innings count by 30 or more is more susceptible to either injury or poor performance the following year. It's been subjected to detailed analysis by the likes of Baseball Prospectus and found to not really hold water, so why bring this up? Well, Martinez is 23, and after tossing 99.2 innings last year, he's on pace to top 190 this season, a huge increase. Perhaps that's completely meaningless, but for a guy with a slender frame and a mid-90s fastball, I'm a bit concerned.

Carlos Gonzalez (OF, COL) – Why is Gonzalez on this side of the ledger given his career-high 37 home runs? Several reasons really. His 26.8 percent HR/FB rate is well above league average, though so his is 19.7 percent career mark. This may sound crazy, but he's likely to top 150 games played for the first time in his big league career in 2015, so can we really expect that again in 2016? Finally, he's hitting just .181 against LHP, and though it would seem tough to bench a guy against lefties who is taking up $17 million in annual payroll, perhaps the Rockies bring in a lefty-killing OF similar to what the Dodgers have done with Justin Ruggiano and Scott Van Slyke.