East Coast Offense: Which Players Can You Count On?

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

There's always attrition at the top of the draft board in fantasy football, but this year seems to be worse than normal.

Looking at the NFFC ADP (PPR format), here are the top-36 players on the eve of the season:

It also puts the lie to most of the post-draft analysis that emphasizes when you took a QB, whether you went zero-RB or whether you went into the year with scrubs at TE. There might still be optimal ways to structure a draft, but when the nucleus of your team is subject to total overhaul, so many of the assumptions on which that analysis is based turn out to be false. I've been a broken record on this point so far this year, but your diligence in scouring the waiver wire before your FAAB deadlines and making first-come-first-served pickups late in the week are a bigger factor in winning your league than ever before. It's partly the evolution of fantasy scoring, but it also seems like NFL teams are more willing to overhaul their depth charts than before. Old strategies like handcuffing running backs - when it was easier to predict who the backup would be, and that backup was more likely to inherit a starter's entire role - aren't effective these days. There's simply no substitute for paying close attention all season long.

Week 5 Observations

• The Steelers won Monday night, but it was due to some fluky big plays like the touchdown to Markus Wheaton on a blown coverage and a pick six. Michael Vick is a big problem, especially for Antonio Brown. I wrote a couple weeks ago I'd take Brown late in the second round for an October-only draft, but I'd have to downgrade him more than that until Roethlisberger comes back, maybe 2-3 more rounds.

•Antonio Gates might have benefitted from the four-game suspension in that he's got fresh legs and doesn't need many reps to get in sync with Philip Rivers. Top tight ends age pretty well - Tony Gonzalez, Gates, Jason Witten and Shannon Sharpe played forever.

•Eli Manning played an MVP-level game, throwing for 441 yards on 8.2 YPA and leading the team on a game-winning drive in the final two minutes with his top three receivers (Odell Beckham, Rueben Randle and Victor Cruz) not playing. (Beckham did return at the end to draw a key pass interference penalty.) Offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo's scheme is working, but it's best when Manning's running the two-minute offense, and setting up the run with the pass. The lazy, conservative play calling at the start of the third quarter, where they were aiming to convert first downs instead of looking to score points, let the 49ers back into the game.

• Once again, Tom Coughlin botched the end-game strategy by (1) settling for a field goal on 4th-and-goal from the one to take a three-point lead with plenty of time left and the 49ers offense moving the ball with ease; and (2) not using his timeouts on defense when it was clear the 49ers would get at least a field goal and quite possibly a touchdown, which they did. The saving grace for New York, without which they would not have won the game, was Carlos Hyde needlessly going out of bounds during the final drive and the 49ers calling a pass play on 1st-and-goal from the two instead of a timeout-costing run. The Giants were also lucky Hyde scored on second down rather than third.

• The Giants defense got exposed against a quarterback whose confidence was shot heading into the game. Maybe this jumpstarts Colin Kaepernick's season, though I'd bet against it.

•Rashad Jennings is the team's best all around back, and Shane Vereen is great for the two-minute offense. Andre Williams is an innings eater, and they shouldn't force-feed him around the goal line.

• When the 49ers handed Jarryd Hayne the ball, I felt like he might punt it.

•Derek Carr looked good early, but the last two games he's reverted to the erratic rookie version of himself.

• Say what you like about the DFS commercials – they're annoying, and there are too many of them. But the Burger King chicken fries spot is worse. Not only does it use the stupidest, tritest, corniest, commonest kind of weak corporate pseudo humor, but the product it's selling is revolting from the inhumane large-scale factory chicken operations from which it originates to the greasy, diarrhea-inducing, processed rectangles they pass off as food. While the Cialis/Viagra ads are just as bad, performance-enhancing meds are probably necessary in large part because too many people eat at Burger King (and other toxin-rich, nutrient-poor fast food chains), which pollute their systems and rob them of their vital energy.

• Like Barnidge and Benjamin on the Browns, you have to take Allen Hurns and obviously Allen Robinson seriously on the Jaguars. Both teams will get behind and wind up in their share of shootouts, and while neither quarterback is likely to be consistently good, they're capable of big games, often in garbage time.

• The Saints might resemble the Browns and Jaguars in that respect, only they spread the ball around more than one would like. Still Willie Snead and Brandin Cooks could be garbage time kings for much of the year like they were Sunday.

• The Eagles are rounding into the form we expected before the season. Sam Bradford still looks terrible at times, but he threw for 333 yards in a game in which they were largely ahead, and handed the ball off 33 times. Jordan Matthews has the physical skills to be a No. 1 receiver, but he's got to hang onto the ball.

• As bad as Coughlin is with end-game management, Andy Reid is worse. The Bears got the ball to the Kansas City 13, down five, with 57 seconds left, and Reid failed to use his timeouts on defense. As a result, after the Bears scored to go up one (failed two-point try), the Chiefs got the ball back with 11 seconds left and couldn't get into field-goal range.

• It's unfortunate Jamaal Charles is likely out for the year with a torn ACL, but I find it funny everyone who backed him up with Knile Davis is SOL because suddenly Charcandrick West is the guy. I almost never "handcuff" my starters with their alleged backups, not only because it limits the upside of your draft, but also because the backup often doesn't keep the job or isn't nearly as good.

•Devonta Freeman had a third-straight monster game, this time against a tough run defense. Not only did he rack up 157 yards and a score on the ground he also caught seven of his eight targets for 44 yards. He looks like peak Ray Rice who was a top-five back, top-three in PPR.

•Julio Jones doesn't seem entirely healthy, and his volume, coincidentally or not, has dropped off significantly since the season's first three games. Jones was also hobbled at the end of last year with a hip injury (this year he's battling toe and hamstring ones), and missed significant time a couple years ago with a foot injury. In short, I can't put him in the same class as Antonio Brown with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. One could aargue, until Roethlisberger returns, Julian Edelman is the league's most reliable receiver.

• The Bengals made a great and unlikely comeback down 24-7 to the Seahawks. Tyler Eifert has emerged as a top-five TE, and Andy Dalton managed 331 yards and two TDs against Seattle's defense.

•Aaron Rodgers uncharacteristically threw two picks and lost a fumble at Lambeau Field, but Nick Foles (four picks) gave it back and then some, while completing only 11-of-30 passes. Moreover, kicker Greg Zuerlein missed three field goals. Still, the Rams just missed the backdoor cover when Stedman Bailey got behind the defense for a 68-yard catch in the closing minute that would have been a touchdown but for Ha Ha Clinton-Dix catching him by his ankles near the 10-yard line.

•Todd Gurley or Adrian Peterson the rest of the way?

• I really believed the Ravens poor defense early this year was a sample-size anomaly, and John Harbaugh was a good enough coach to turn things around. But now that they've not only been lit up by the Raiders in Oakland, but by the Browns at home, maybe they're just bad without Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs. It also makes you wonder about the Broncos offense, the only unit the Ravens shut down. After Denver's zero-TD showing against the Raiders, can we say with certainly they're a better bet for production than the Josh-McCown-led Browns?

• You know what would be bigger than the DFS scandal? An NFL employee accidentally releasing first-half scores at noon ET.