East Coast Offense: Taking My Own Advice

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

Taking My Own Advice

I always counsel people to observe closely and trust their judgment, rather than taking tips from anyone else, no matter what their track records. If the best players aren't taking tips, then taking their tips is precisely how not to be like them.

This has worked out for me in a couple areas, notably the stock market where I was getting killed until I started buying only companies of which I was a satisfied customer. It also worked for me in baseball this year where I had the best season of my life despite doing less prep than I had in more than a decade. The key was simply targeting guys I liked and ignoring (and avoiding) the garbage on Twitter and elsewhere. (I actually had to mute a few accounts for the month of March so as not to be influenced one way or another by what they were saying.)

For NFL I largely did the same thing, and so far, so good. I have zero shares of Jordan Matthews, one of Brandin Cooks and one of Ameer Abdullah (seventh round.) Meanwhile, few people were talking about Devonta Freeman, Andy Dalton or DeAndre Hopkins.

One area in which I haven't heeded this advice very well is NFL DFS. Every week, I put $100 or so worth of lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel tournaments, and I take back 20-30 percent of that. Part of it is playing only large-field GPPs, but I've also absorbed too much moronic chatter. How else did I wind up with Charcandrick West in three lineups? I don't even know who that is.

Going forward, I'm only starting players I like and whose roles on which I've got a good handle. That doesn't mean I won't punt a lineup spot, but if I do it'll be with a player like Michael Floyd who I've watched for four years and know is good rather than someone like West who people were talking up because he was ahead of Knile Davis on the depth chart.

Instant Replay, Golden Tate and the Catch Rule

I always wondered why pass interference penalties couldn't be reviewed. After all, PI is one of the most consequential calls a referee can make, and the outcomes of games so often turn on it. The explanation is PI is a judgment call, and judgment calls aren't subject to review. At first I didn't grasp the reason for this distinction, but in the context of the NFL's catch rules, it makes more sense. The reason the catch rules are so screwed up is catches are reviewable. Pre-instant replay, whether someone caught the ball was a judgment call, just like PI. Sure, a receiver had to have possession with both feet in bounds, but whether the receiver had control of the ball long enough before going out of bounds (or dropping the ball) was simply left to the ref's discretion. Essentially, a ref would know a catch when he sees one.

But the advent of replay meant for reviewable calls there had to be more specific criteria. Otherwise, the booth would be overturning a ref's judgment call with its own subjective one. So the NFL added things like "made a football move" or "retained possession all the way to the ground" or, in Tate's case this past Sunday, "becoming a runner." These criteria would provide a reason for overturning something on the field beyond the booth simply seeing it differently.

The problem with adding rigid criteria, however, is it makes a catch something technical that in many cases strays from our common-sense understanding. Whereas once the refs and the public were more or less on the same page with respect to recognizing a catch, now what's clearly and obviously a catch in the viewer's eyes might not technically be so.

Adding criteria also creates problems we saw with Tate's touchdown catch that was initially ruled an interception (after it bounced out of his hands and into a Chicago defender's.) Tate caught the ball in the end zone and briefly had control of it, but according to former VP of officiating for the NFL, Mike Pereira, he didn't "become a runner," therefore it shouldn't be a TD. But how can the "become a runner" criteron apply once a player's in the end zone? On a catch in the field of play, a receiver will do one of two things after securing the ball: (1) run with it; or (2) go to the ground. In the former, we can ask whether he's "become a runner" or "made a football move," and in the latter "whether he had possession all the way to the ground."

But once he's in the end zone and loses the ball while still upright (Tate eventually did fall down, but long after he had lost the ball), neither of those questions apply. He had nowhere to run, no need to make a football move and never went to the ground with the football in his hands. Therefore, the play was correctly ruled a touchdown, even though we're left with the absurdity that had Tate held onto it longer and dropped it only after he hit the ground, it would have been incomplete.

This is a result of having rigid criteria rather than human judgment as the ultimate arbiter of whether a catch was made. Even aside from the frequent stoppages in play and the unconscionable waste of everyone's time, I'd rather have less replay and actually agree pass interference, as inconsistent and flawed as its implementation is, should remain unreviewable.

Week 6 Observations

• What a bizarre Giants-Eagles game. The Giants carved up the Eagles defense on a flawless first drive, forced a three-and-out and drove down to the 22-yard line again, before DeMeco Ryans ripped a catch out of Larry Donnell's generous hands. After that, the Giants lost 27-0, and it wasn't even that close but for Sam Bradford's horrific inteceptions.

• Mercifully, I couldn't entirely focus on the game because I was doing an online basketball draft, i.e., I was watching football on one TV, the MLB playoffs on another while drafting an NBA team.

• The game of the week should have been the Patriots-Colts, and the first half lived up to its billing, more or less. But the second devolved into unwatchable play with a penalty on every series. I mean why not just have the Colts agree to start 1st-and-20 on every drive and dispense with the wasted time of throwing the flag and stopping the action?

• There was a lot of talk about it being a revenge game for the Patriots – after all the Colts ratted them out for underinflating the football – and the point spread which opened at 7.5 jumped all the way up to 10. Surely the Patriots were going to flatten them to prove a point. Of course, it was nothing like that – just a normal mediocre game between a very good team and an okay one where the Colts backdoored the cover in garbage time.

•Andrew Luck looked okay to me. He just doesn't have enough time to go where he wants with the ball, so he takes too many sacks. He could get the ball out quicker with dinks and dunks, but you can tell he wants to get the ball down the field to T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief. It's not happening until they protect him better.

•Frank Gore doesn't look 32 with the ball in his hands, but the Colts aren't a power running team, and they don't give him a heavy workload.

• Moncrief led the team in targets, and Andre Johnson looked sluggish and dropped another pass. I'd proceed as if last Thursday's game didn't happen.

•Julian Edelman came out on fire, hurt his finger and wasn't a factor after the first series. Rob Gronkowski was also relevant on only one series when he had two of his three receptions and a touchdown. I would read too much into this unless Edelman's injury turns out to be a problem which is unlikely since he played the entire game.

•Dion Lewis didn't do much, maybe because he was banged up coming into the game, or maybe because the Patriots like bludgeoning the Colts with LeGarrette Blount. But Blount played well and will be a threat to take a big share of the backfield work in any given game.

• Al Michaels is the best. He mentioned there was an over/under prop available on how many times he and Cris Collinsworth would say "Deflategate," and said it four times quickly so the over bettors won.

• I took the Ravens -2.5, but I obviously overlooked the Torrey Smith/Anquan Boldin "revenge-game" angle. And if both of them needed to take revenge, then Colin Kaepernick had to have a good game, which he did, especially against that awful pass defense. That's two good games in a row for Kaepernick, but I know as soon as I use him anywhere, he'll make me pay dearly.

•Steve Smith, coming off a missed week due to broken bones in his back, had another big game, and I have to admit I was wrong to discount him this summer. Smith might be old, but every game is a revenge game for him because every waking hour is a revenge hour.

•Philip Rivers threw for 503 yards, but the Chargers scored just 20 points. Had they been able to cash in on that last drive, the game goes to overtime where Rivers would have had a real shot to break Norm Van Brocklin's all-time record of 554 passing yards.

•Keenan Allen had a big day, but it could have been quite a bit bigger had he not left the game after taking a hit. Assuming he's healthy, he's a top-10 receiver.

• I don't know if Eddie Lacy's just gimpy or he's lost the job, but that was a big no-show against a Chargers team that hadn't stopped the run all year. I suppose James Starks is the more valuable back right now, though he's never been able to stay healthy for long except as as backup.

•Aaron Rodgers had a modest day as the offense without Jordy Nelson isn't as explosive as last year's. Jeff Janis, a size-speed freak, made an impact with four targets and two catches for 79 yards. He also made a key block on Starks' long TD run. The Packers have a bye next week, and Davante Adams should be back, but the receiver depth chart after Randall Cobb is still wide open.

• The Dolphins defense and Lamar Miller both showed up now that the team had two weeks to cleanse itself of the Joe Philbin regime. Jordan Cameron led the team in targets followed by Rishard Matthews. Jarvis Landy saw only four, though he did run for a score.

•Cam Newton made some mistakes, but he's a good quarterback on a team with arguably the weakest receivers in the league. While the Seahawks defense isn't what it was, making a comeback in Seattle with those receivers was impressive.

•Jimmy Graham looked like the Pro Bowler for whom the team traded. I'd like to see him get double-digit targets in two straight games before I'd put him ahead of Greg Olsen, though.

• Keep an eye on rookie Devin Funchess. He had a couple drops, but he led Carolina wideouts with six targets.

• I had the Lions minus three in the LVS SuperContest and I took them in my *re-buy* survivor pool. Even though I came out with a push and a win, respectively, it wasn't worth it. Between Jim Caldwell kicking a FG down seven on 4th-and-4 from the 16-yard line and a few minutes left in the game to the team muffing two punts, to Matt Stafford, who had played great most of the game, throwing a soul-crushing pick, it's just too much to ask of myself emotionally.

•Arian Foster's numbers don't jump off the page, but he looked completely healthy, moving well and breaking tackles. He's a top-five back.

• I had Julian Edelman as my No. 1 WR, in part because he's had his bye already, but now that he's dealing with a bad finger, I'll move DeAndre Hopkins ahead of him. Hopkins is likely to lead the league in targets, and Brian Hoyer is adequate enough for that to be the difference-maker.

•Blake Bortles isn't good, but his defense will keep him slinging the ball (53 attempts), and he has decent receivers. Throw in some rushing yards, and he's useful when your real QB's on bye.

• Backing the Lions is bad, but backing the Chiefs takes decades off your life. Andy Reid punted on 4th-and-2 from midfield down 10 with a minute left in the half. If it's 50/50 to get a first down, why not roll the dice and put yourself in the position you fear the other team having should you fail? Reid also ran into the teeth of the Minnesota defense on 4th-and-1, predictably failing, and Charcandrick West fumbled on the team's penultimate drive.

•Alshon Jeffery's back, and he's a top-10 receiver right away.

• The Cardinals-Steelers game was such an obvious trap. I laid the three points, but I knew it was a mistake before kickoff. Of course, it got worse when the Steelers replaced Michael Vick (who's a poor man's Kaepernick at this point) and put in Landry Jones who got Martavis Bryant involved. I actually subbed out Bryant in a few DFS lineups this morning because I didn't think Vick could get him the ball.

• Oddly, Le'Veon Bell didn't record a catch for the first time in his career, and Antonio Bryant extended his sub-50 yard receiving streak to three games. This offense should be a monster though once Ben Roethlisberger comes back, maybe as soon as next week.

•John Brown had a big game, but Michael Floyd also made an appearance with eight targets, 50 yards and a touchdown. The team doesn't throw to its tight ends much, so there's probably room for three productive receivers.

•Chris Ivory is a top-10 back, especially now that he's catching passes. He's a powerful runner, but he can also get outside and gash teams for big gains. And the offense around him is above average. The Jets are a dangerous team, now that Darrelle Revis is back, and they just got star defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson back from his suspension.

• Besides maybe Roethlisberger, does any quarterback have a better setup (skill players and offensive line) than Andy Dalton? Dalton seems almost matchup proof at this point. I've yet to do my quarterback ranks, but I'll probably put him in the top five.

•Peyton Manning managed only 6.0 YPA against the Browns who were missing their top two cover corners Sunday. And that includes one nicely thrown ball to Emmanuel Sanders on the sideline where he took it 75 yards for a score. The Broncos are 6-0 due to their defense, but imagine how good they would be if Manning were actually playing well?

•Ronnie Hillman got the bulk of the carries and did more with them than C.J. Anderson. Demaryius Thomas saw 17 targets, but had a couple terrible drops.

•Travis Benjamin (13 targets, 117 yards) and Gary Barnidge (9 targets, two TDs) apparently aren't going away.