This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | 49ers | 34.60% | 425 | 80.95% | 6.59 |
| FALCONS | Buccaneers | 22.00% | 310 | 75.61% | 5.37 |
| PANTHERS | Colts | 12.40% | 275 | 73.33% | 3.31 |
| PATRIOTS | Dolphins | 9.50% | 360 | 78.26% | 2.07 |
| Cardinals | BROWNS | 8.40% | 200 | 66.67% | 2.80 |
| Chiefs*** | Lions | 3.80% | 220 | 68.75% | 1.19 |
| Seahawks | COWBOYS | 3.40% | 240 | 70.59% | 1.00 |
| TEXANS | Titans | 0.90% | 180 | 64.29% | 0.32 |
| RAVENS | Chargers | 0.90% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.35 |
| Jets | RAIDERS | 0.90% | 125 | 55.56% | 0.40 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game is in London on a neutral field
According to Vegas, the Patriots are, once again, the top choice, being only 9.5% used and nearly as likely to win as the top favorite on the board, the Rams (34.6% used.) After the Pats, it's close between the Rams, Falcons and Panthers.
My Picks:
1. St. Louis Rams
They're the most heavily used team, but I think they have a better chance to win than that for which Vegas gives them credit. At home against a 49ers team that's weak on both sides of the ball, Nick Foles won't be asked to do much, and the Rams defensive line should cause big problems. I give the Rams an 85 percent chance to win this game.
2. New England Patriots
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | 49ers | 34.60% | 425 | 80.95% | 6.59 |
| FALCONS | Buccaneers | 22.00% | 310 | 75.61% | 5.37 |
| PANTHERS | Colts | 12.40% | 275 | 73.33% | 3.31 |
| PATRIOTS | Dolphins | 9.50% | 360 | 78.26% | 2.07 |
| Cardinals | BROWNS | 8.40% | 200 | 66.67% | 2.80 |
| Chiefs*** | Lions | 3.80% | 220 | 68.75% | 1.19 |
| Seahawks | COWBOYS | 3.40% | 240 | 70.59% | 1.00 |
| TEXANS | Titans | 0.90% | 180 | 64.29% | 0.32 |
| RAVENS | Chargers | 0.90% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.35 |
| Jets | RAIDERS | 0.90% | 125 | 55.56% | 0.40 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game is in London on a neutral field
According to Vegas, the Patriots are, once again, the top choice, being only 9.5% used and nearly as likely to win as the top favorite on the board, the Rams (34.6% used.) After the Pats, it's close between the Rams, Falcons and Panthers.
My Picks:
1. St. Louis Rams
They're the most heavily used team, but I think they have a better chance to win than that for which Vegas gives them credit. At home against a 49ers team that's weak on both sides of the ball, Nick Foles won't be asked to do much, and the Rams defensive line should cause big problems. I give the Rams an 85 percent chance to win this game.
2. New England Patriots
You can almost never go wrong with the Patriots, especially at home, but I'm taking the Rams over them for a couple reasons: (1) the volatility of the short week; and (2) the Dolphins pass rush matches up well against a weak offensive line. Still, the Patriots almost never lose at home, and the low ownership numbers make them a good play. I give the Patriots a 76 percent chance to win this game.
3. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks aren't nearly as good on the road, and their offensive line is a problem, especially against a Cowboys team that can rush the passer. But Seattle's defense should destroy a Matt-Cassel led offense, and Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch should make enough plays against an average-at-best defense. I give the Seahawks a 71 percent chance to win this game.
4. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are typically better at home, and the Buccaneers' defense is terrible. But Jameis Winston has played better of late, Mike Evans is back to full strength, and I think the Bucs can shoot it out with them. Still, Atlanta should hold them off in the Georgia Dome. I give the Falcons a 72 percent chance to win this game.
5. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers could easily destroy a Colts squad that can neither protect the passer, nor defend very well, but I still think Andrew Luck and those receivers are dangerous if they get rolling. I give the Panthers a 71 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Kansas City Chiefs - They might be better than the Lions, but if so, not by much. Moreover, with Joe Lombardi gone, there's a chance the Lions open up the offense, and the Chiefs are vulnerable to the pass.
Arizona Cardinals - Maybe the Cardinals are really good, but they were life and death at home against the Ravens Monday night, and now they're travelling on a short week.
