Hoops Lab: Overloading to Win When Short-Handed

There's more than one way to skin a cat.

Side bar: You ever hear an expression and wonder where it came from? When I wrote the above line it was to jump off into my subject on fantasy basketball strategy, but after I wrote it out it looked so strange that it threw me off my game. I just spent five minutes Googling "more than one way to skin a cat," and apparently the expression goes back to like the 1600s and Shakespeare put it in a play. I still have no idea what it means, but I guess that's enough of an aside, so back to business.

So anyway, there's more than one way to skin a cat. In other words, there's more than one way to get a job done. For today, I'm using this to talk about different ways to build a strong enough team to win your year-long head-to-head roto league (e.g. the Yahoo Fantasy style of head-to-head format). This is a strategy I've written about in years past, but since I've got a team right now where I'm using this strategy I figured it was a good time to talk about it.

The concept is based on the fact that there are nine categories that could be won every week. The most commonly used strategy is to try to have a strong team that's generally balanced, with quality players across the board. When drafting, this is usually how I like to build my teams because it maximizes the chances for success and options for down the road.

But what if the draft didn't go like you wanted? What if you ended up with a choice of reaching on players for balance or going with best-available but in positions you were already strong in? Or what if you drafted the perfectly balanced team, only to have injuries strike and you end up with an unbalanced one? Or maybe the injuries lowered your talent level enough that the balanced approach just wouldn't work; should you just give up?

Of course not.

Instead, in this type of league, you can punt up to four categories and still come out on top. All you have to do is win five of the nine categories to win a week, and in the playoffs if you win five categories three times in a row, you win the title. I've seen very untalented-looking teams that don't look scary at all win the title using variations of this strategy. So with that said, let me tell you about my team in the Freaking Fantasy Fools basketball league.

I've actually mentioned this team before, just not by name. In the first Hoops Lab of this season I told a story about how I tried to draft two leagues at the same time, on my phone, while at a company dinner with my bosses. Well, this was the first of those two teams. I was able to draft six of the fist seven rounds live, then I used a queue and quick drive-by looks to draft the rest of the team. It actually turned out to be really strong, but because I wasn't focused on it I ended up drafting the perfect "win five out of nine categories" team without even meaning to. It's a 10-team league, so I was able to stockpile talent more-so than in a 12-team league, but check out my squad (listed in draft order):

Anthony Davis (PF/C)
Draymond Green (SF/PF)
Serge Ibaka (PF/C)
Kemba Walker (PG)
Victor Oladipo (PG/SG)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF/PF)
Ricky Rubio (PG)
Isaiah Thomas (PG)
Bradley Beal (SG)
Emmanuel Mudiay (PG)
Rajon Rondo (PG)
Jarrett Jack (PG/SG)
Jordan Clarkson (PG/SG)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG)
Jamal Crawford (SG/SF)

Do you notice what happened, starting in round four? From four through 15 I took one forward and 12 guards. My team is so backcourt-heavy it's crazy. This league starts two centers and three forwards, and I literally have JUST enough frontcourt players to start, but that's it. If any of my guys don't play that night I just leave my forward slot open, even if I have plenty of guards on the bench.

I'll have to do something about this, but it'll have to be through trade because all of my guards are too good to just drop. And the funny thing is, my guards are SO good that it doesn't even matter that I end up leaving frontcourt slots empty, despite it being a daily transaction league. In fact, it doesn't even matter that on at least three occasions that I can think of I've gotten too busy to set my line-up and I've left a bunch of production on the bench. It doesn't matter, because I'm GOING to win all of the perimeter categories. Assists, steals, 3-pointers and (surprisingly) turnovers, I win just about every week. That means I only have to win one of points, FG%, FT%, blocks or rebounds and I've won the week 5 – 4. We've played four weeks so far…want to guess my team's record?

20-16.

Do the math on winning 5-4 four times, and there it is. I'm in third place, purely on the strength of this overloaded line-up approach. And as I said, while this happened with my team off the draft, if your squad is injury hit you can do this on purpose. First, you have to pick the categories that you're going to win. And make sure there are five of them, as it doesn't make sense to set up your team to lose 5-4 every week. Then, once you've decided, look at your team and look for any player that doesn't help you in those categories. Those players become your trade bait. Then aggressively start shopping; don't even be afraid to be the one giving up the "bigger name" in the deal, just focus on the bottom-line of maximizes your five specific categories and try to set your team up to win those every week.

Now, is it an easy strategy? No, and in fact it's often a bit of a last resort. It's something to do when you've had bad luck, and you can't figure out any way for your team to compete as currently constituted. And you generally have to rely on trades and free-agent transactions to pull it off, which is also risky. But if you're in a no-win situation, it's much more fun to have a plan and try to execute it than to just give up with months left in the season. Right?

Around the NBA

Durant is back:Kevin Durant was able to return from his hamstring injury Monday after sitting out the previous six games, which allowed Russell Westbrook to predictably go nuts. While obviously this is big news for Durant owners, as far as transactions go it's bigger news in DFS than in year-long leagues. Westbrook's price in DFS has super-maxed out based on his production with Durant out, so he's probably not going to be owned much over the next week or so until his price drops back down.

McHale's firing: Kevin McHale was fired as the Rockets coach after a 4-7 start to the season. The firing was unusual because McHale had his team in the Western Conference Finals just a few months ago. The rumor is that McHale and the front office weren't seeing eye-to-eye on the future of the team, so they parted ways. In the short-term there's no obvious fantasy angle here, as presumably "Dork Elvis" Daryl Morey will want his new coach to continue the analytics-friendly lots-of-treys approach that makes the Rockets a friendly fantasy destination for lots of role players. But it's always worth keeping an eye on a situation after a coaching change just to make sure.

Cousins' back and volatility:DeMarcus Cousins is right there in the argument as one of the best fantasy big men in the NBA this season, alongside Anthony Davis. Last week I was critical/worried about Davis because of his propensity for getting hurt. So to be fair, I need to shine the same light on Cousins' weakness: his volatility. Cousins was just suspended for a game last week for throwing a forearm punch at Al Horford last Wednesday. He is always among the league leaders in technical fouls, which also leads to suspensions that can come at inopportune times. This is always a risk of owning Cousins, and worth thinking about.

That said, in the short term there are other concerns with Cousins, as he had to leave Monday's game in overtime with a sore back. There is no word on the severity of the issue, but having to leave a game right at winning time at a point when Cousins should have been maximally warmed up is concerning for his short-term availability.

Aldridge's ankle:LaMarcus Aldridge sat out his second consecutive game Monday with an ankle sprain. The injury does not seem major, as he was able to go through morning shootaround Monday, but he is still out. And with Spurs coach Gregg Popovich's well-publicized tendency to err on the side of caution with his players, it's possible Aldridge could end up missing a game or two more than expected.

Bledsoe's knee:Eric Bledsoe hurt his knee Saturday night and briefly left the game, but he was able to return and finish the game. However, he had to sit out Monday with soreness in the knee and is considered day-to-day.

More injured Cavs:Mo Williams (ankle) and Timofey Mozgov (shoulder) have joined Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert on the shelf for the Cavaliers. Both injuries seem relatively minor, and both could be back within the next week or two. However, this has been news on the DFS front, as replacement starters Tristan Thompson and Matthew Dellavedova have both stepped in as starting-caliber DFS players at very affordable prices.

Got the drank in me going back-to-back: Back-to-backs 11/25– 12/1
TW: Hawks, Celtics, Mavericks, Clippers, Grizzlies, Wizards
WT: None
TF: None
FS: Hawks, Cavaliers, Nuggets, Warriors, Pelicans, Spurs, Kings, Wizards
SS: Nets, Lakers, Raptors
SM: Celtics, Pistons, Rockets, Clippers, Bucks
MT: Mavericks, Trailblazers

New Additions:
Mason Plumlee (65 percent owned in Yahoo! Leagues): Plumlee's ownership percentage is a bit higher than usual for this space, but he's played well enough to still sneak in here. Ever since Meyers Leonard (shoulder) got hurt, Plumlee has been putting up big numbers, averaging 14.7 points, 8.3 boards, 3.0 assists, 2.3 blocks and 1.0 steals in 31.3 minutes per game over his last three. Leonard could return from his shoulder injury in the next week, but with the Trail Blazers looking to establish their big man rotation on a young team, I'd feel that Plumlee should maintain good minutes.

Manu Ginobili (34 percent owned): The old man has been playing well in San Antonio. If you pick him up you tacitly agree to his injury/rest schedule, but when he plays he's putting up 12 points, 3.5 assists, 3.4 boards, 1.6 treys and 1.3 steals per game. He also makes an intriguing DFS target, as this gets around the problem of him sitting often and you get good production for a low price.

Mario Chalmers (23 percent owned): Chalmers seems to have been energized by his trade to the Grizzlies. He's still coming off the bench, but in his five games he has four double-digit scoring efforts, including an outlier 29-point, including four three-pointers, effort against the Thunder.

Nikola Jokic (22 percent owned): Jokic has taken over as the starting center in Denver with so much of their frontline injured, and the young big man has posted two big games in his last three. He had 23 points, 12 boards, three blocks and two steals against the Spurs, then followed that up a couple of games later with 11 points, 11 boards, two assists, two steals and a blocked shot against the Warriors.

Gary Harris (12 percent owned): While Will Barton has gotten a lot of attention of late, Harris has also been playing very averaging 17.0 points, 2.7 boards, 2.0 3-pointers and 1.3 steals in 29 minutes per game over his last three.