This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at Week 12:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 49ERS | 28.20% | 525 | 84.00% | 4.51 |
| CHIEFS | Bills | 16.90% | 240 | 70.59% | 4.97 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 15.70% | 400 | 80.00% | 3.14 |
| BENGALS | Rams | 8.80% | 400 | 80.00% | 1.76 |
| JAGUARS | Chargers | 5.80% | 192.5 | 65.81% | 1.98 |
| Giants | REDSKINS | 3.70% | 135 | 57.45% | 1.57 |
| TEXANS | Saints | 3.30% | 145 | 59.18% | 1.35 |
| BROWNS | Ravens | 3.30% | 140 | 58.33% | 1.38 |
| JETS | Dolphins | 2.90% | 170 | 62.96% | 1.07 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
It's a three-way race between the Bengals, Packers and Cardinals, according to Vegas. Because the Bengals are less owned than the Packers, but have the same chance to win, it would ordinarily vault them ahead. But at this stage of the year, the percentage owned data is noisier, and you should try to figure out who each of your competitors has left and who they're likely to use, i.e., you have to figure out your pool's particular pot odds.
My Picks:
1. Arizona Cardinals
I think the 49ers will show up at home, but the Cardinals are so balanced, I have a hard time seeing San Francisco keeping pace. Even if the 49ers got a lead, the Cardinals are capable of striking quickly and getting back into the game. I give the Cardinals an 84 percent chance
Let's take a look at Week 12:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 49ERS | 28.20% | 525 | 84.00% | 4.51 |
| CHIEFS | Bills | 16.90% | 240 | 70.59% | 4.97 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 15.70% | 400 | 80.00% | 3.14 |
| BENGALS | Rams | 8.80% | 400 | 80.00% | 1.76 |
| JAGUARS | Chargers | 5.80% | 192.5 | 65.81% | 1.98 |
| Giants | REDSKINS | 3.70% | 135 | 57.45% | 1.57 |
| TEXANS | Saints | 3.30% | 145 | 59.18% | 1.35 |
| BROWNS | Ravens | 3.30% | 140 | 58.33% | 1.38 |
| JETS | Dolphins | 2.90% | 170 | 62.96% | 1.07 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
It's a three-way race between the Bengals, Packers and Cardinals, according to Vegas. Because the Bengals are less owned than the Packers, but have the same chance to win, it would ordinarily vault them ahead. But at this stage of the year, the percentage owned data is noisier, and you should try to figure out who each of your competitors has left and who they're likely to use, i.e., you have to figure out your pool's particular pot odds.
My Picks:
1. Arizona Cardinals
I think the 49ers will show up at home, but the Cardinals are so balanced, I have a hard time seeing San Francisco keeping pace. Even if the 49ers got a lead, the Cardinals are capable of striking quickly and getting back into the game. I give the Cardinals an 84 percent chance to win this game.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
After starting 8-0, they've lost their last two, but keep in mind last week's loss was in Arizona, and had Marvin Lewis not botched the end-game clock management, the game would likely have gone into overtime. The Rams have a good defense, but neither Case Keenum nor Nick Foles is a good bet to produce on the road against Cincinnati's stout defense. I give the Bengals an 82 percent chance to win this game.
3. Green Bay Packers
Maybe they're back after throttling the Vikings in Minnesota, but only two weeks ago the Packers lost at home to the Lions. And the Bears are not a doormat, given their better-than-expected defense (low-bar to clear) and quality play from Jay Cutler. The problem for Chicago is Martellus Bennett is already out, and Alshon Jeffery is questionable. I give the Packers a 78 percent chance to win this game.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have played great the last few weeks, but they draw a tough opponent in the Bills who hung around against the Patriots in Foxboro last week. Still at home, and facing the Bills off a short week, I give Kansas City a 69 percent chance to win this game.
5. Houston Texans
They're only three-point favorites, but Brian Hoyer should be back, the Saints don't play defense, the game is outdoors in Houston and the Texans defense has been excellent the last few weeks. I give the Texans a 66 percent chance to win this game.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
Desperate times call for desperate measures, but some people have used the top five teams on this list already. The Jaguars are erratic and aren't very good against the pass, but the Chargers can't run or pass protect and have lost their top wideout and are playing with a hobbled Antonio Gates. Their defense can't stop the run, and they're not good against the pass, either. I give the Jaguars a 65 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Seattle Seahawks - After they allowed 7.8 YPA to Blaine Gabbert last week and 39 points to the Cardinals the week before that, I don't trust them to stop the Steelers.
Cleveland Browns - It's tempting to take them with Matt Schaub under center for the Ravens, but Cleveland can't stop the run, and the Ravens defense has been adequate the last two weeks.
New York Giants - I expect the Giants to win, but they're not good enough to trust on the road against a Redskins team that until last week had showed up more often than not.
New York Jets - I think they'll handle the Dolphins at home, but the Jets defense has slipped the last few weeks, and these are roughly equal teams.
