East Coast Offense: Is C.J. Anderson this year's C.J. Anderson?

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

Is the NFL Becoming Too Arbitrary?

There's always an element of luck in sports, and we have no choice but to accept it. Sometimes a pass thrown behind a receiver is tipped harmlessly to the ground, sometimes into a defender's hands who stumbles to the ground as he intercepts it and sometimes into a defender's hands as he's running full speed, and he takes it to the house. The quarterback and receiver made the same play in each case, but its consequences can be disparate in the extreme. It's frustrating for those cheering on the offense when it's a pick six and for those backing the defense when it's an incomplete pass that bounced off the hands of the defensive back. But it's part of the game, and we implicitly consent to outcomes being driven in part by that kind of luck when we invest ourselves emotionally or financially in it.

But while bounces good and bad are unavoidable, if the balance between luck and merit tips beyond a certain point, outcomes become too arbitrary to retain sufficient meaning. Today's NFL - with its bad officiating, difficult-to-understand rules, bad coaching (clock management and fourth-down decision making in particular) and frequent player injuries, in addition to the unavoidable luck element - is treading dangerously close to that point.

I wrote last week about how 21 of the top 48 players by ADP had missed at least one game, and we can add Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham to that list. Two more quarterbacks, Tony Romo and Josh McCown, are now out for the year, and Ben Roethlisberger suffered a concussion. As a result, the Patriots, who might have been one of the greatest teams of all time, are suiting up without Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis and possibly Danny Amendola. Moreover, their loss to the Broncos Sunday was in large part caused by a fumbled punt, a shaky offensive PI call on Gronkowski before he got hurt, Gronkowski's injury and unavailability and a shaky defensive holding call on a sack that would have put Denver 3rd-and-goal from the 19, down four. I have no vested interest in seeing the Patriots do well, and I have zero shares of Gronkowski in fantasy. But as I tweeted during the Sunday night game (and this could have applied to the Cardinals-Niners or the Steelers-Seahawks games, among others), "Why not eliminate the middle man (the players) and just have the refs just tell us who's going to win?" Too many games are turning on missed calls, and too many reviews would have different outcomes if different officials were in the replay booth.

Management's refusal to hold coaches accountable for terrible clock and fourth-down management exacerbates these problems. How many times can Jim Caldwell hand the game to Mike McCarthy, and McCarthy refuse to accept the gift? Just last night, Mike Pettine failed to call one of his two timeouts with 40 seconds left in the game, and even though the Browns got a first down, they had time for only one play to advance the ball. It went nowhere, the Browns attempted a 50-plus yard FG (which requires lower trajectory), and it was blocked for a game-winning TD. We can live with the Browns running 2-3 plays unsuccessfully there or someone dropping a pass or a pick. We can even live with a blocked FG TD. But having coaches routinely (I'd argue more often than not when clock management is an issue) change outcomes because they're ignorant of basic strategy known to most observant fans, tests our tolerance. When Dan Quinn kicks a field goal, down four with a few minutes left on 4th-and-goal from the one, when Tom Coughlin punts on 4th-and-short in plus territory in a game with 63 points on the board in the third quarter, the message is: "This outcome in which you're so emotionally invested, this cause about which you care deeply - is in the hands of incompetents. And you're powerless to do anything about it."

When you have a team severely undermined and altered by injuries, managed by people who fail to comprehend crucial aspects of basic strategy, playing a game officiated arbitrarily by people who don't entirely understand its rules, it undermines the sense your investment in it is meaningful and worthwhile.

In fact, watching the NFL these days brings up feelings I had while watching the NBA in the early 2000's when the Sacramento Kings' Jason Williams, Chris Webber and Peja Stojakovic took on the Kobe Bryant-Shaquille O'Neal Lakers. I remember being so frustrated by the seemingly arbitrary foul calls, awarding the games to the soulless favorite when the Kings were playing such an exciting, dynamic brand of basketball. It was the same thing when the Phoenix Suns were bounced by the Spurs a few years later - it was so arbritary and frustrating. Only later did we find out some of those games were in fact fixed. I'm not alleging NFL games are fixed - though I wouldn't bet my life they were not - only that the league is treading into dangerous territory when the sense of arbitrariness rises toward that level.

Man Vs. Machine

When the Texans were favored by only three against the Saints last week, I thought it was an easy call. The Saints have long had severe home/road splits, their defense was the worst in the league, the Texans were getting Brian Hoyer back (and had just beaten the Jets with T.J. Yates) and Houston's defense had been stout for the previous three games. I made it my best bet without a second thought, and none of the site's four other resident handicappers took the Saints, either.

Nonetheless, after I make my picks, I sometimes check Massey-Peabody which uses an algorithm to power-rank teams and handicap games, just to see what their numbers say. Surprisingly the Saints were one of their "Big Plays." Seeing the disparity between the machine which looks at the Texans full-season body of work (including horrific showings against the Falcons and Dolphins) and the human handicappers, I thought the game would be a good test case*. Algorithms can only go by what's true generally. If season-long performance, rather than Weeks 9-11 taken alone, is generally a better predictor of Week 12 results, then the machine will use the entire year. But humans are more flexible than that. Even if year-to-date performance is generally the correct interval, perhaps in certain instances that's not the case. It's not always easy to define those instances - how do we know the Texans aren't just the post-Joe Philbin Dolphins who played great for two weeks then crashed back to what they were - but perhaps an experienced human handicapper can know it when he sees it. I'll be happy to point out when one of these "know it when we see it" instances goes the other way, and I would have here had the Saints surprised us. But before the game that line seemed off, and it, in fact, turned out to be.

*M-P is doing better than most of us this season, and far better than me (though that's a low bar to clear in 2015, and they pick only a few games per week, while I have to pick all of them. But I don't want to imply their system isn't doing well generally because it is.)

Week 12 Observations

•Matt Schaub threw a pick-six and also a crucial interception to set-up the would-be game-winning field goal by the Browns. But his presence probably doesn't hurt Kamar Aiken or Javorius Allen that much.

•Terrance West looked good spelling Allen, and the two could wind up in a timeshare, though it appears Allen will see all the pass-catching duties.

•Travis Benjamin and Gary Barnidge get it done no matter's who's under center these days.

• I wonder if there's someone who was up 5.5 with Justin Tucker going and facing the Ravens defense.

• I loved how Jon Gruden was killing Mike Pettine last night, saying you have to start Johnny Manziel to see what you have in him and later wondering aloud why the Browns even signed Dwayne Bowe. Pettine also touted and then released Ben Tate and Robert Turbin the last two years, moved Terrance West in and out of the doghouse every other week, benched Manziel and benched Josh Gordon before he was suspended. He's like the authoritarian teacher at your high school everyone mocked for his ridiculous overreactions.

• Is there any starting back more useless than Isaiah Crowell?

•Brock Osweiler didn't blow me away, but he was competent against a good Patriots defense, and clearly the running game is a different animal with him under center.

•C.J. Anderson could be this year's C.J. Anderson in the fantasy playoffs. Ronnie Hillman is the James Starks to Anderson's Eddie Lacy.

• I'm not sure how I feel about Scott Chandler with Gronkowski out. I suppose I'd pick him up if I needed a TE, but I can't see ranking him in the top-10 yet.

• The Giants defense actually played well. But for a long DeSean Jackson TD when Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was sidelined with an injury, they held Washington to 13 points despite three turnovers and way too many three-and-outs. (The Redskins had the ball for 36 minutes.)

•Odell Beckham made another TD catch for the ages, extending flat on the full run into the end zone and somehow getting his hands under the ball. He's a once-in-a-generation talent.

•Alfred Morris ran hard and looked nimble despite the 3.4 YPC mark.

•Kirk Cousins had a good game, but the efficiency (10.1 YPA) was largely due to two plays – the TD to Jackson who was matched up on nickel corner Jayron Hosley and a 45-yard catch and run to Matt Jones.

• That I still can't imagine the Redskins making the playoffs doesn't mean it won't happen.

• The Bills finally committed to Sammy Watkins on the road in bad weather against a tough defense, and he responded with a 6-158-2 line. Get your best players the ball.

• The Rams weren't penalized for keeping a concussed-out-of-his-mind Case Keenum in the game last week. Accountability is only for players like Manziel and Josh Gordon apparently.

•Todd Gurley is a great back, but that offense is like playing with a 30-pound weight on his back.

•Jeremy Maclin had a huge game, but you could be forgiven for not using him. And almost no one used two of the week's biggest receivers, Markus Wheaton and Doug Baldwin. Meanwhile, Julio Jones and Antonio Brown did almost nothing. And DeAndre Hopkins torched Darrelle Revis but got shut down by the Saints.

• How could the Falcons possibly be favored against the Vikings last week? Atlanta's last four games were a home loss to the Matt Hasselbeck Colts, road loss to the 49ers, home loss to the Buccaneers and narrow road win over the Titans. When I saw the line, I thought I must have been missing something, but I wasn't.

• What is Matt Ryan's problem? Julio Jones is healthy and yet the Falcons can't generate any big plays. Moreover, Ryan threw a terrible pick in the end zone when the team was driving in a close game.

•Adrian Peterson is the league's No. 1 back, in part due to attrition, i.e., he's the last man standing with Le'Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster gone. But Peterson looks like he's getting stronger in the second half.

• The Seahawks defense isn't remotely the same unit as it was the last two seasons, but apparently Russell Wilson can shoot it out if he has to. The Steelers got killed by bad calls in the second half, but Mike Tomlin ultimately did himself in, kicking a field goal down five on fourth and short with three minutes left, hoping to get the ball back.

• I used to think Tomlin was one of the league's best coaches, but now I view him like Tom Coughlin, a good leader of men, but clueless from a strategy standpoint. And don't let Tomlin's willingness to go for two after a score fool you – he still makes awful clock management and end-game decisions and punts in all the wrong situations.

• I thought the Steelers-Seahawks game would be a shootout, so I loaded up on Martavis Bryant, Tyler Lockett and Jimmy Graham. I had zero shares of Jermaine Kearse, Baldwin or Wheaton.

• I had read that Richard Sherman fared better against big, physical receivers than small, quick ones like Antonio Brown, but Sherman held Brown to 51 yards on 12 targets.

• Apparently, Jameis Winston's big performance against the Eagles had more to do with a defense that checked out than him turning a corner.

• I have no idea how the Colts keep winning with Matt Hasselbeck, but he's saved their season. And I suppose Donte Moncrief and T.Y. Hilton are playable with him after all.

•Ryan Tannehill did not play a good game, but he was a monster in garbage time with three TDs and 350 yards. They even got rookie DeVante Parker, who caught four passes for 80 yards and a TD, into the act. I imagine they'll integrate him into the game plan going forward, but it's the Dolphins, so you never know.

•Brandon Marshall is still the top-10 receiver he was with the Bears before he got hurt.

• Of course it was insane to lay four points with the Jaguars, and I did it anyway.

•Marcus Mariota inexplicably threw an easy game-sealing pick right to a defender with no receivers in the area. There was a full minute left, and the Titans, down three, had a first down in Raiders territory.

• The 49ers are a different team at home, and they actually outgained and were more efficient than the Cardinals. Blaine Gabbert is looking like a competent quarterback, and at the very least, he's bought himself another few years as a backup.

• Even Philip Rivers was aghast at the lack of athleticism on Carson Palmer's years-long touchdown run.

• What a disastrous season for Dez Bryant. He finally gets healthy and has Romo back, only to lose him again. Bryant's still a top-20-ish receiver with Matt Cassel, but that's probably his ceiling.

• I thought the Panthers were a fraud at 5-0, but it's hard to argue with them blowing out most of their opponents of late, and the Packers game was only close because Carolina went into prevent too early.

• It was shocking how poorly the Eagles played on a national stage when they still controlled their own destiny to win the division. Chip Kelly wasn't even faking it, punting on 4th-and-2 from his own 41 with 2:15 left in the third quarter, down 38-7.

• Matt Stafford had a huge day, and it could have been bigger but for a few drops. The Eagles defense is awful, but Stafford was also zipping the ball with perfect accuracy most of the day. The play calling is also much better under new OC Jim Bob Cooter. They're not nearly as conservative, and they're letting Stafford sling it.

•Calvin Johnson had a monster day on Thanksgiving, but I'd like to see it against a non-doormat before I'm restoring him to his preseason ranking. I'd also like to see him score on a deep ball. While the three TDs were nice, he managed only 93 yards on 14 targets.

• The NFL changes so quickly. A month ago, having the Chiefs, Lions and Texans on your schedule was a cakewalk.

• It's too bad John Fox, Bart Starr and Brett Favre couldn't will the Packers to a win. Fox did his best by punting the ball back to the Packers on 4th-and-1 from midfield, up four, with two and a half minutes left. Of course, the Packers had the ball at midfield 40 seconds later anyway.

• Later on that drive, Aaron Rodgers passed the ball to Davante Adams to make it first and goal with a minute left, and Fox didn't take his last timeout, instead letting the clock run down to 30 seconds. At that point, time was not an issue for Green Bay, as they were going to throw the ball four times regardless, but Fox ensured if the Packers scored, the Bears would have no time left to drive for a game-tying field goal.

• The Bears prevailed anyway, and you have to wonder why Rodgers was only able to muster 4.7 YPA at home against an average defense. Part of the problem is Adams who can't hold onto the ball and has been horrifically inefficient the last several games, but it's strange Rodgers keeps going to him and that Adams is even on the field. Maybe Rodgers was just being careful not to upstage Favre on his big day.

•Eddie Lacy fumbled, but otherwise seemed like the player we drafted back in August.

• Curt Menefee's psychotically peppy and upbeat demeanor grates on me. He's probably got a closet full of dead bodies at his house.