Mound Musings: Arms to Watch in the AL Central

We're now close to the middle of the six-part series on some key arms to watch in each of baseball's six divisions. As you know, these guys may be primed for a breakout, ready to take a significant step forward, they might be on the precipice or they might just be a value-in-waiting. In any case, you will want to be aware of these hurlers on draft day 2016. Let's get to it this week with:

Seven Arms to Watch in the AL Central

Carlos Rodon (CWS) - There weren't many pitchers I would consider obvious value play candidates in this division, but I think Rodon might be a good starting point. The young southpaw piled up 139 innings after an early recall from Triple-A last season, and while the numbers weren't terrible (1.44 WHIP and 3.75 ERA), they could be soft enough to scare away some potential suitors on draft day. It's the walks that will make them nervous, however his command improved considerably as he got more comfortable so I expect it to be better (not great you understand) this year. Rodon logged 139 strikeouts in those 139 innings, and he doesn't have a really refined change-up -- that will open some eyes to be sure. He has a very good fastball, but his calling card is a devastating slider (you need to see it to really appreciate it) so as that change-up and his command improve, his ceiling jumps dramatically. If he is available at a discount, especially in keeper leagues, grab him, as the discount won't be around many more years.

Justin Verlander (DET) - I recognize the risk in listing Verlander, but I believe he is about to put the finishing touches on the "age adjustment" for power pitchers. In years past, he defined "power pitcher" with his ability to light up radar guns with apparent ease. Then, as happens to all flamethrowers, the power dipped a bit. Unable to just reach back for more and blow hitters away, he was hit regularly, and he tried nibbling with limited success, and word circulated in fantasy circles that he was either hurt, or washed up. His average fastball rests in the 93 mph area, down from its peak of about 96 mph, so there is plenty there, right? I would say, yes, and I would say it emphatically. Kids, Mr. Verlander is adjusting, and in some ways, relearning his craft. Every power pitcher finds this necessary. Some make the adjustment easily and almost seamlessly. Some really struggle with it and never really find their way. But most, like Verlander, require a couple of years to get comfortable. I think he's about there. I just hope his name doesn't drive the price too high on draft day. Big name good memories can last a long time.

Ian Kennedy (KC) - Sometimes reasons for a value boost aren't completely evident. Kennedy is moving away from the notably pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego, and he's coming off a season of struggles that included a higher than anticipated walk rate and the highest home run rate of his career. But, interestingly, his numbers were better on the road over both seasons with the Padres. On the plus side, his velocity has ticked up the past couple of seasons, and he is striking out more than a hitter per inning. So why should this notorious flyball pitcher be a strong consideration after moving to the Royals? True, Kansas City's ballpark, while a benefit to pitchers, isn't quite as appealing as San Diego. However, Kennedy will now pitch in front of one of the best defenses in the game -- particularly their outfield defense which is even more critical for an extreme flyball pitcher -- after suffering through the fielding follies that have been a Padres' trademark of late. He could be ignored on draft day, and that might be a mistake.

Phil Hughes (MIN) - Another baseball physics lesson -- I hope. If you can consistently hit the catcher's glove with a toss that doesn't look like a beach ball from a bump 60 feet, 6 inches away, you can be a relatively successful pitcher. In 2014 Hughes set a MLB record for lowest walk rate, and while he didn't quite match that rate in 2015, his walk rate was still at an elite level. The difference in 2015 was more a product of the beach ball thing. His velocity dipped, he got too much of the plate too often, and his home run rate spiked. The net result was a hit-inflated 1.29 WHIP and a lackluster 4.40 ERA. You can imagine what those numbers could have looked like with the baserunners from just an average walk rate. Yikes! About the only thing I haven't mentioned is Hughes' back problems that nagged him all season, eventually costing time on the disabled list in August. In my mind, that's enough to earn him a mulligan for 2015. I don't necessarily think he'll match his 2014 season, but I do think he'll out produce his 2016 draft day price tag if healthy.

Kris Medlen (KC) - For this one we need to set the way back machine for 2013. Medlen was making quite a splash in Atlanta, and the fantasy world was getting pretty excited. Enter the scalpel and Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2014. This followed the same surgery in 2011. Like the Allstate television commercials -- "not good." Medlen returned last year and split time between starting and relieving. His velocity was comparable, and his control was reasonable. He still generated a lot of groundballs, and he still kept left-handed hitters off balance. His strikeout rate dipped a bit from the old days, but that's not too surprising over that kind of layoff. I hesitate to predict a huge season for Medlen. He has pitched over 150 innings just once, and I certainly don't see him eclipsing that mark this season. The Royals will no doubt be very conservative with his workload, but he showed that the skillset is still there, and he'll be pitching in a pitcher-friendly park for a competitive team so I think he deserves the "help for a buck" tag in this division.

Jordan Zimmermann (DET) - Zimmermann too saw his fastball velocity drop a tick last year, and he suffered from a bump in flyballs making it out of the park. Now he moves from a relatively friendly schedule that included a generous helping of starts against weak hitting teams like Atlanta and Philadelphia, and will face designated hitters in the American League. The Tigers should provide him with plenty of run support which could boost the win category, but they are definitely not a defensive model. Those all sound like reasons to stay away, but I am at least partially counting on my opponents seeing it that way too. I watched quite a few of Zimmermann's starts last season, and there were many outings where things were going well before a bad inning spoiled everything. It was an untimely walk extending an inning, or a flair dropping in the Sargasso Sea, and then a mistake being launched into low-Earth orbit. Maybe it was bad luck, or a nagging minor injury, a momentary loss of focus, or maybe a combination. I am betting he will bounce back and put together a solid season, and I'll hope he comes at a discount.

Danny Salazar (CLE) - The Tribe features a trio of very good starting pitchers -- Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Salazar. I'm just not all that excited by the supporting cast. The back of their rotation could be a trap similar to what I warn fantasy owners about. The problem with the top three is they may not present much value on draft day. Kluber is the clear No. 1, but he will probably command that kind of price. Most think Carrasco is next in the food chain, but I am tempted to give that designation to Salazar. I'm not even saying I expect Salazar to pile up significantly better numbers, actually I expect him to post similar or slightly better numbers at a more reasonable price. I am basing this on Salazar's tale of two seasons. In early July, his ERA was over 4.00 and he was struggling consistently. Better command and the amazing emergence of his overwhelming splitter turned darkness to day and allowed Salazar to end the year with a 1.13 WHIP, a 3.45 ERA, and more than a strikeout an inning. If he could put together two halves like that, he might actually surpass Kluber's value.

The Endgame Odyssey:

Here we'll cover some notes and observations on the closer scenarios across baseball. For these six weeks, the focus will be on the division featured in arms to watch.

The reliever with the best closer resume in the division might not end up being the closer as we move through the season. Wade Davis seems like the obvious choice for the Royals with his dominant stuff, but don't be too surprised if he ends up being their version of Dellin Betances-West. Former All-Star closer Joakim Soria is in Kansas City and could take over the job leaving Davis available for more work in the seventh and eighth innings. That's speculation, but it does make sense. ... When healthy, end gamers don't get much more reliable than the Twins' Glen Perkins. He missed some time last season but appears ready to go. Kevin Jepsen makes a decent caddy, and don't overlook Alex Meyer. ... Cody Allen has built up some significant job security in Cleveland, and he has able backups in Bryan Shaw, and sleeper Zach McAllister has found a comfortable home in the pen. ... A couple of the other divisional bullpens make me nervous. David Robertson will close for the White Sox, but he has always profiled as more on a setup guy in my eyes. There aren't many obvious alternatives, so his leash could be fairly long, but if he should struggle, I actually like a healthy Nate Jones better for the closer's gig. ... Then there's Detroit. I'm pretty sure Francisco Rodriguez has been doing it with smoke and mirrors, and the smoke may clear in Tigertown this year. It's his job as long as he avoids any extended meltdowns, but be ready to check on youngster Bruce Rondon, perhaps Alex Wilson, or even top set-up man Mark Lowe if you spot too many cracks in the mirror.

Next week we'll look at Seven Arms to Watch in the NL Central.