This article is part of our Weekly Hitter Rankings series.
Last year we debuted a new feature, the Weekly Hitter Rankings, due to some prompting from readers. The WHR debuted in midseason, as a complement to the Weekly Pitcher Rankings, but as a result of hitting the ground running there was no opportunity to explain the methodology being used to compile the rankings. With Opening Day inching ever closer, it seems like a good time to rectify that.
Why Hitter Rankings?
Unlike the WPR, which ranks individual pitchers due to get a start or two in the upcoming week, the WHR looks at the run-scoring environment for each team. There are a few reasons for this. First, listing each possible hitter in the major leagues would be, well, let's just call it unwieldy. Second, the group of hitters that would be considered "must-starts" on a weekly basis is much larger than the comparable group of pitchers. Depending on your bench depth, even Clayton Kershaw is someone you at least have to consider sitting when he heads to Coors Field. The same can't be said for Paul Goldschmidt when he heads to AT&T Park. Actually, ranking all the top-end hitters wouldn't seem to have much value for most fantasy players.
Third, and perhaps most important, a hitter's value depends far more on the support he gets from his teammates than a starting pitcher. If Kershaw tosses eight shutout innings with 10 K's, he may or may not get a win depending on how his teammates do that day, but it's
Last year we debuted a new feature, the Weekly Hitter Rankings, due to some prompting from readers. The WHR debuted in midseason, as a complement to the Weekly Pitcher Rankings, but as a result of hitting the ground running there was no opportunity to explain the methodology being used to compile the rankings. With Opening Day inching ever closer, it seems like a good time to rectify that.
Why Hitter Rankings?
Unlike the WPR, which ranks individual pitchers due to get a start or two in the upcoming week, the WHR looks at the run-scoring environment for each team. There are a few reasons for this. First, listing each possible hitter in the major leagues would be, well, let's just call it unwieldy. Second, the group of hitters that would be considered "must-starts" on a weekly basis is much larger than the comparable group of pitchers. Depending on your bench depth, even Clayton Kershaw is someone you at least have to consider sitting when he heads to Coors Field. The same can't be said for Paul Goldschmidt when he heads to AT&T Park. Actually, ranking all the top-end hitters wouldn't seem to have much value for most fantasy players.
Third, and perhaps most important, a hitter's value depends far more on the support he gets from his teammates than a starting pitcher. If Kershaw tosses eight shutout innings with 10 K's, he may or may not get a win depending on how his teammates do that day, but it's still a great fantasy outcome either way. Goldschmidt, on the other hand, could go 0-for-3 but still produce an RBI on a sac fly and a run scored after drawing a walk if his teammates are getting hits and getting on base around him. When the Diamondbacks, as a group, are in a better environment for producing runs, that's going to have a positive impact up and down the lineup.
How To Use The Rankings
In shallower leagues, these rankings may not help you much. When every hitter on your roster is a starter, if not an outright star, you'll usually be setting and forgetting your lineup unless someone gets hurt. In deeper formats, however, knowing which platoon player or part-timer is likely to get more at-bats and has a better chance of producing stats with them in any given week could give you a decided edge. Slipping Scott Van Slyke into your lineup for a week when he's due to face three left-handed SPs of dubious quality could result in a nice haul of hits and RBI that swings the balance your way in a head-to-head matchup, or helps keep you afloat in a tightly-bunched roto category. Again, you won't be using Van Slyke over Goldschmidt, but you might use him over Yasmany Tomas if the D'backs are on a road swing through tough pitchers' parks that week.
How The Rankings Are Compiled
The three basic numbers used to put the rankings together are these:
1. Park factors (using a three-year average of ESPN's park factors from 2013-2015)
Obviously, an average of the park factors for the last three seasons isn't going to capture the impact of recent changes to park's dimensions, such as what what done to Marlins Park this offseason. If the numbers from Miami start diverging significantly from the park's history I'll make an adjustment during the season by swapping out the 2013 numbers for 2016.
2. Home/road splits for each team's runs per game
Initially, I'll be using 2015 numbers, as there's usually some year-to-year consistency in a team's offensive output. Sometime between the beginning of June and the All-Star break, however, I'll swap in 2016 numbers.
3. FIP for opposition starters
Again, 2015 numbers will be used until they aren't. I'll switch to 2016 FIPs at the same time I switch over to 2016 home/road splits for each team
How Stats are Used
For each home game that a team plays during the given period (usually seven days, Monday to Sunday), I'll use its average runs per game in its home park. For each road game, I'll multiply its road runs per game by the park factor of wherever it is playing that day. (Using park factors only for road games prevents a team from "double-dipping" when it's at home, as its home park factor should already be impacting its offense at home.) Those estimated runs per game then get added together.
I'll also add together the FIPs of each pitcher the team is scheduled to face during the period, as a representation of its level of opposition on the mound. In the event that there's no declared starter for a game, or the declared starter doesn't have much of a track record, based on our Projected Starters page, I'll use the league-average 2015 FIP of 3.96 for that spot.
I'll then average the total estimated runs for the period with the total opposition FIPs for each team, and come up with an initial ranking based on those averages.
The idea here isn't to predict exactly how many runs each team will score in a given period. That would be impossible. Rather, the idea is to get a sense of which teams are playing in better run-scoring environments that period, whether due to park factors or opposition. The difference between the 10th and 12th teams may not be significant, but the difference between 10th and 20th is likely enough to help guide your roster decision if you're deciding between two hitters for your utility slot.
