Regan's Rumblings: (Very) Early Overreactions

Overreacting to small sample sizes is rarely a good idea, but watching as much baseball as possible early in the season has allowed me to make a few observations. Some of these are a bit of a stretch, similar to someone predicting Kenta Maeda to have more RBI than the entire Padres' roster through three games.

Who will introduce Trevor Story in his 2036 Hall of Fame Induction?

I was late to a friend's 10-team mixed league draft last week, and thus Yahoo's auto-draft function kicked in. I wound up with Starlin Castro as my primary shortstop. Once I was able to jump in, I wanted a Plan B and fortunately snagged Story late in the draft. Even more fortunately, I took a flier and put him in my Opening Day lineup, and he now has four home runs through three games. Story swatted six homers while batting .340 this spring a year after hitting 20 and stealing 22 bases in 130 minor league games. He posted just a 5.8% BB% in Triple-A last year, though he does have a history of double-digit BB%'s throughout his minor league career. It's tough to see Story hitting much higher than .270, so he'll need those walks to maintain his value, and in terms of homers, 20-25 looks very possible. Of course Castro is also off to a hot start, so I'm looking good at short.

The Dodgers dodged a bullet by not signing Zack Greinke

Greinke surrendered seven runs in four innings in his Arizona debut this week, including three home runs. Considering he allowed just seven runs in all of April last year, it's an auspicious debut to say the least. He was, however, reported to be suffering from the flu during this one, so we'll give him a pass. No one is expecting another 1.66 ERA, particular in a tougher park for pitchers, but 210 innings with a mid 2's ERA and 190 strikeouts is something we can bank on.

Chris Archer could make a run at 300 strikeouts

We talk a lot about pitchers that could take their game to "the next level", and while Archer already did that last year, perhaps there's one more step in store in 2016. Last year, Archer improved his K/9 from 8.0 to 10.7 and his BB/9 from 3.3 to 2.8. In his Opening Day start this week for the Rays, Archer struck out 12 and walked three over five innings, though he wound up with the loss. The strikeouts make me wonder if Archer can approach 300 in 2016, a mark that Clayton Kershaw reached last year that hadn't been attained since way back in 2002. If Archer can get to 225 innings (212 last year) and improve his K/9 to 11.2, that gets him 280 strikeouts. That could actually be within reach.

Marcus Stroman is a top-20 starter

After returning from a torn ACL late last year, Stroman flashed his considerable upside, posting a 1.67 ERA in four starts over 27 innings. Stroman allowed three runs over eight innings in his debut, but two of them came in the ninth before he was pulled with no outs, so he probably shouldn't have been sent out there in the ninth at all. The one walk was encouraging -- as was his 4.25 GB/FB rate in that one -- leaving lots to like going forward. We are projecting a 7.1 K/9 for Stroman, but if he can continue developing his breaking stuff, that could push quite a bit higher. He already gets a ton of movement and his command is very advanced for his age.

The Angels might not reach 70 wins

Dropping back-to-back games to the Cubs' top-two starters (Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester) isn't the end of the world, but losing by a combined score of 15-1 is discouraging. Garrett Richards was okay (5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 K), as was Andrew Heaney (6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 7 K), but the bullpen has been brutal, and Mike Trout and Albert Pujols are a combined 0-for-15. The Angels and Mike Scioscia appear content to have Yunel Escobar and the Daniel Nava/Craig Gentry platoon hit in front of Trout and Pujols, which is one reason why I had Trout third on my draft board behind Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt this spring. Look for the Angels to be sellers (Huston Street and others) at July's trade deadline. Late edit: Heaney is now out indefinitely with an elbow injury. Nick Tropeano time?

Billy Hamilton and Byron Buxton both hit ninth

Hamilton has the potential to be the most dynamic leadoff man of his generation given the ease in which he can swipe 50-plus bases, but with a career .282 OBP, he's finding himself batting ninth to open the season. Zack Cozart's .310 OBP last year looked attractive enough for him to be slotted in the leadoff spot. Obviously, this will cost Hamilton significant at-bats over the course of the season, which in turn will limit his stolen bases and opportunities for runs. I wasn't overly optimistic on Hamilton this year anyway, as there appears to be significant holes in his plate approach. Even in his last taste of Triple-A in 2013, Hamilton hit a paltry .256/.308/.343 while swiping 75 bags. Perhaps the overwhelming steal total was enough to blind me to his significant deficiencies. Nonetheless, Hamilton may end up getting more at-bats in Triple-A than the bigs this year.

Buxton, meanwhile hit .268 this spring, with his 20:3 K:BB in 56 at-bats not enough to dissuade the Twins from making him their Opening Day center fielder. He promptly struck out in all three of his at-bats hitting at the bottom of the lineup. I caught a couple of them, and his bat just doesn't look big-league ready. I still believe in him long-term, but not everyone can be Carlos Corrrea and tear up the league from day one. Buxton is only 22 this year, so some Triple-A time wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. I just don't see big contributions from him this year, at least until the second half. Late edit: Buxton recovered to go 2-for-4 with a pair of doubles Wednesday, so perhaps I have no idea what I'm talking about. Still, I'm not seeing a breakout happening this year.

Is David Hernandez still the closer in Philly?

Hernandez entered Monday's game in the eighth inning with the Phillies leading 2-1, so that's an indicator right there that he's not the guy. Then things went like this with him in the game: walk, double, walk, HOOK. James Russell then came in and allowed all three runners to score, all of which got credited to Hernandez' ledger. So no, he's not the guy, while Dalier Hinojosa is. Fun note: I bid $6 on Hinojosa in our one and only FAAB period Sunday, and was awarded him for a whopping $61, so I obviously fat-fingered that one. My fellow owners were nice enough to reverse the bid and give it to the runner-up, and though I would have loved to have Hinojosa, the cost was far too high. The 30 year-old Cuban has a real chance to run with the job for awhile. Late update: Of course, as soon as I wrote this, I saw that Hinojosa blew the save Wednesday against the Reds. At this point, unless the Phillies bring back Billy Wagner, Brad Lidge, or Mitch Williams, perhaps a guy like Jeanmar Gomez gets a look.

Sometimes spring stats matter – Exhibit A: Rich Hill

I could care less if guys like Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw have poor springs as long as it doesn't involve an injury, since these guys have proven track records. Hill has a recent track record consisting of a magical September with the Red Sox last year. However, he had an awful spring, struggling mightily with his mechanics to the point where he posted an 11.25 ERA with 15 walks in 12 innings. Hill then lasted just 2.2 innings filling in for Sonny Gray (food poisoning) on Opening Day, allowing four runs (two earned) on three hits. He walked just one while fanning three, so there is something positive to be had there, but Hill clearly can't be relied on until his mechanics are back to September's level.

Roberto Osuna is a top-5 closer

I thought for sure that Drew Storen would be the Jays closer, but Osuna had the better spring and ultimately won the job. Throwing in the mid-to-upper 90s, Osuna posted a 2.58 ERA, 9.7 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 in his age-20 season last year while recording 20 saves. He could double that to 40 this year if he's able to keep the job all season, and with his stuff, that's very possible. Osuna had Tommy John surgery in 2013, but he looks healthy now, and in watching him, not only is his stuff that of an elite closer, but so is his demeanor and poise on the mound. I think he's already an elite closer.

Trayce Thompson could be a starting left fielder soon

Yasiel Puig is in full beast mode through three games, batting .600/.692/1.300, and Joc Pederson will get plenty of rope given his power and defensive prowess, which leaves left field up for grabs. Andre Ethier (leg) is out for several months, leaving Scott Van Slyke, Carl Crawford, and Thompson as left field options. Thompson didn't hit much this spring and Crawford is batting .300 through three games, but Thompson is clearly the most talented of that crew. He hit .295/.363/.533 in 122 late-season at-bats for the White Sox last year, and he's flashed 20/20 type abilities coming up through the minors. Thompson of course is the brother of the Golden State Warriors' Klay Thompson, a team you may have heard about a little lately. He's a worthy stash in deeper formats.

Robinson Cano is in line for a career year at age 33

Nelson Cruz hit 44 homers for the Mariners last year, so it's certainly possible that someone playing 50 percent of their games at Safeco Field could still be an above-average offensive player. Cano is doing his best Trevor Story impression so far this year, homering twice Wednesday to give him four in three games. Cano raised his HR total to 21 last year, up from 14 in his debut season with the Mariners, but could 25-30 be in store in 2016? It certainly seems possible, as Cano is hitting third between Kyle Seager and Cruz in a potent heart-of-the-order. Cano hit .311/.387/.540 with 15 homers in 287 second-half at-bats last year, and he looks poised to continue that run this season. I was pretty happy to get Cano for $34 in our 18-team heavy inflation Staff League.

Quick hits:

- Carlos Correa is a top-four fantasy pick if I'm drafting now.

- Yasiel Puig is hitting .600 with a homer and a pair of triples. There's first-round value here if his hamstrings hold up.

- With the first pick of the 2017 MLB draft, the San Diego Padres select…

- Zach Britton struck out the side for his first save Wednesday. He's elite -- very elite.

- Gregory Polanco has a .615 OBP for the 3-0 Pirates. He may be poised for a huge breakout after signing a contract extension. I'm sad I have no Polanco shares.

- David Wright is tied for the league lead with Carlos Correa with two steals, which may not last. Jokes aside, it's good to see a guy with a history of back issues running.

- Eight at-bats, seven RBI for Starlin Castro. Yeah maybe that whole "change of scenery" theory actually applies on occasion.

- Apparently Juan Nicasio's spring wasn't a fluke, as the righty allowed just two hits and a run over six innings with 7 K's Wednesday. 29 teams subsequently went online to see when pitching coach Ray Searage's contract is up.

- Nick Hundley is the most-added player in Yahoo leagues. Ah, the power of Coors Field.

- The Rays received outfielder Steven Souza and spare parts for ex-uber prospect Wil Myers and more spare parts in a three-team deal that also involved the Padres and Nationals. The deal appears to favor the Nationals, who ended up with Trea Turner and Joe Ross, but Souza has three homers in four games already. Nice start for an underrated bat.

- Ivan Nova leads the Yankees in saves…

- Shawn Tolleson gave up five hits and five earned runs in exactly 0.0 innings with no K's in a blown save (and a loss) Wednesday. It might already be time to consider who the new closer will be in Texas. I'll go with Sam Dyson and his 95.8 mph average fastball.