Mound Musings: Checking in on AL Bullpens

During the season I will contribute observations on bullpen developments in the Endgame Odyssey section of the Musings, but there have already been some surprises (and situations that really shouldn't be a surprise). Given the importance of staying current on who's closing, I want to visit some AL bullpens this week, and next week I'll do the same with the NL closer arrangements.

Will the real closer sign in, please?

You hear the term, "closer by committee" all the time – it's the bane of a fantasy owner's existence. Just keep in mind that the committee is usually more of a scenario in flux than an actual committee. Managers, and, more importantly, relief pitchers as a whole, like to know their roles. A huge part of closing successfully is the mindset needed to perform in that role. If you know you'll be handed the ball in the ninth inning to protect a small lead, you'll be better prepared. That's one reason why some good relief pitchers don't work so well in the closer's role, they just don't have the personality.

Therefore, a committee could be a test period for the intended closer, or it could be a period of transition while the eventual closer is prepared – physically and mentally – to step into the ninth inning pressure cooker. In most cases, the real closer will surface fairly soon, and your objective is to identify that guy as soon as possible. Let's take a look at some closer assignments in the AL and see where they may be headed…

Here are some AL closer scenarios to keep an eye on:

Houston Astros – The Astros surprised a lot of people when they anointed top shelf set-up guy Luke Gregerson their closer to start the season. I really don't think this is a long-term situation. The team acquired Ken Giles to fill that role, and he's likely to get his chance fairly soon. He struggled during the spring, but he has one of the most electric arms in the game and his future is in the ninth inning. The Astros are poised to be contenders, and they are better with Gregerson pitching the eighth inning. They'll let Giles get settled and filled with confidence, and then unleash him on their AL West opponents. So, if the Giles' owner in your league is ready to pull the chute already, you might want to see if you can acquire him at a healthy discount. Just be patient if you own him.

Tampa Bay Rays – This is one that doesn't include a change to date, and I actually think it could be a situation where the current closer solidifies his grasp of the role. Alex Colome is a relief pitcher – the Rays know that now. And, I think there's a good chance they know he's their best bet to pitch in the ninth inning. There are some who believe Brad Boxberger will step back into the closer's role when he returns from the disabled list. He tore an abductor muscle in March that required surgery, so he's expected to be out until mid-May, and that should be long enough for Colome to claim the job full time. During the interim, the Rays will probably look to Danny Farquhar to be Colome's caddy, and he'd be a capable replacement should Colome struggle, but early season usage suggests Colome is the guy for the foreseeable future.

Toronto Blue Jays – Well, the Rodney Dangerfield of bullpens still can't get no respect. When the Blue Jays acquired Drew Storen from the Nationals, most assumed it would be for him to step into the closer's gig. However, the Jays still had last year's kid closer, Roberto Osuna, in hand. They headed into the season with Osuna closing, and Storen setting him up. Toronto is clearly in a "win now" mode, and Osuna definitely has the tools to close effectively. He did the job last year, and the flexible Storen provides a very comfy insurance policy. I would anticipate Osuna staying in the closer's role as long as he's successful. Storen will get an occasional save chance so they can keep Osuna fresh, but he's there to give the bullpen depth while providing a known commodity as a backup closer if Osuna struggles. Osuna is a good one, so it makes sense.

Oakland A's – The Oakland bullpen could be one of the most intriguing around. Sean Doolittle is back and closing – at least for now – but his health is always going to be a question mark, and the A's do have alternatives. On Tuesday, Doolittle served up a ninth-inning home run in a tie game. That won't be enough to cost him his job, but how he does going forward is worth monitoring. They do have John Axford, but I think I'll pass there, and I really like Liam Hendriks, but he's very valuable as a reliever who can give them multiple innings. That leaves the also fragile, but capable when healthy, Ryan Madson. Keep an eye on Doolittle's effectiveness, including his velocity (his fastball should average around 94 mph). If you own Doolittle, and if any red flags start popping up, I think Madson is the most likely backup plan.

Detroit Tigers – Someday the wheels on Francisco Rodriguez are going to fall off. The Tigers just hope it isn't anytime soon. In his first outing with Detroit, he was battered for four hits and three runs to blow a save against the Marlins. Again, one stumble won't cost him his job, but his velocity has been on a downward spiral for a few years, and he's looking more hittable all the time. The problem is, there isn't much competition in Detroit. Bruce Rondon and his blazing fastball continue to disappoint. Alex Wilson is hurt but probably not the answer anyway, and Mark Lowe is a set-up guy, not a closer. If they need to make a change, I would guess Justin Wilson, but it's not imminent...yet.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Just fair warning, I'm about to gush, and it will likely happen all season. The Mets have a lot of pitching, and it starts with Noah Syndergaard. I watched him strike out nine Royals (a team that very rarely strikes out) in six innings with a fastball averaging 99 mph, a slider averaging 94 mph and a change-up averaging 90 mph. As Royals manager Ned Yost said after the game, "There's not a man on this earth that I believe could hit any of those pitches." If he stays healthy he could challenge Clayton Kershaw as the ace of the game. I know. Crazy.

• I was a little concerned when the Dodgers backed away from signing the usually solid Hisashi Iwakuma following his physical. He returned to Seattle and I watched a little of his first start to see how he looked. He appeared healthy and in reasonably good form. His fastball sat in the upper 80s, which is normal for him, and he was throwing strikes early in the count. Shoulder injuries always make me nervous, but for some reason Pacific Rim pitchers seem to be able to pitch around many arm ailments. Just keep an eye on him.

• Madison Bumgarner was fighting a bout with the flu in his first start, and he allowed three runs in five innings while very uncharacteristically handing out five walks. His velocity also was off a couple of ticks, hopefully all attributable to the illness. This outing had all the requisites for a mulligan (albeit he did get a win), so don't be overly concerned unless the command and velocity issues carry over into his next outing or two. It's always scary when your ace throws a bad start into the mix, but there were legitimate reasons for this one.

• Sometimes a pitcher who's been around a while finds something to help take his game to another level. And, it's not unusual for that improvement to coincide with working with a particular pitching coach. J.A. Happ spent a few months with Ray Searage while pitching for Pittsburgh last season, and the results were very apparent. I watched his first start back with Toronto, and I liked what I saw. He was working off of his fastball and was staying on top of his pitches. Happ isn't going to be a top-of-the-rotation guy, but he can help in deeper leagues.

• Because I'd only seen a couple of video clips, I wanted to have a better look at the Dodgers' new import, Kenta Maeda. While the Padres may not be the best test for a new arm, he displayed pretty much what I expected. He tossed a wide variety of pitches, nothing hard, mostly breaking stuff that dropped as low as the low 70s in velocity. That said, he was around the strike zone all night (he didn't have a single three-ball count) and he stayed out of the middle of the plate. His six shutout innings added to a scoreless drought for the Padres that has been building since Opening Day. The league will need time to figure him out.

• The Rays pitching staff turned into a strikeout machine against the Blue Jays in their season-opening series. Most noticeable were probably Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi, who each struck out double-digits in just five innings. Toronto is a right-handed-heavy lineup and they do swing with enthusiasm, but 22 strikeouts in 10 innings between that pair did a lot to quiet the Jays awesome offense. I'd be happier if they had pitched deeper into the games, but there's a lot of talent on the Tampa Bay mound, and things likely will only get better.
  

Endgame Odyssey:

I do want to throw a couple of NL scenarios out there (they'll be covered in more detail next week). The Phillies asked David Hernandez to protect a one-run lead in the eighth inning and he proceeded to allow three runs. I'm not sold on him, and his usage with the ugly results suggests someone else might be in line for saves. Earlier this spring in my evaluations, I proposed Dalier Hinojosa as a possibility, and I'll stick with that choice even though he managed to blow his first save chance. Philadelphia is simply not where I want to look for saves. In Atlanta, Jason Grilli got the call in the ninth inning after Arodys Vizcaino pitched a scoreless eighth. Grilli gave up the tying run, but Vizcaino was asked to handle the heart of the Nationals' order, so they may share closing duties on occasion but Vizcaino is the guy to own. Jake McGee is currently the closer in Colorado, but he has midseason trade-bait written all over him. They received Miguel Castro from Toronto in the Troy Tulowitzki deal and he's probably being groomed to close. If you have the roster space, you might want to stash him away.