This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
When it comes to betting on MLB, there are a few types of games that tend to produce a solid ROI. Betting underdogs in games with higher over/under totals, for instance, can generate solid returns, and there's always the old "fade the public" contrarian standby. Aside from looking at overall betting trends, however, there are also some statistical guidelines that could produce strong betting opportunities, and that's what this column will focus on.
The moneylines listed are from the night before, so a big disparity before game time means there's been some significant action on one side or a major last-minute lineup change (such as a switch in starting pitcher).
Technical issues prevented me from writing up the Wednesday games this week, so instead let's take a look at the lines that spark some interest for Friday, May 6.
Oakland (Rich Hill) at Baltimore (Ubaldo Jimenez), 7:05 pm ET: +120/-130
This might be one of the ones that got away. The public is fading Hill hard with 68 percent of moneyline bets on the O's, the over/under is 8.5 which favors betting the underdog, and while Jimenez could be undervalued, that doesn't mean he's been good (5.20 ERA vs. 4.11 SIERA this season). Unfortunately, there was a big correction on the odds overnight, and most books now have the line in the -105/-105 or -110/-110 range. Oakland's weak .293 wOBA against right-handers (24th in the league) is also a warning sign.
Recommendation: None,
When it comes to betting on MLB, there are a few types of games that tend to produce a solid ROI. Betting underdogs in games with higher over/under totals, for instance, can generate solid returns, and there's always the old "fade the public" contrarian standby. Aside from looking at overall betting trends, however, there are also some statistical guidelines that could produce strong betting opportunities, and that's what this column will focus on.
The moneylines listed are from the night before, so a big disparity before game time means there's been some significant action on one side or a major last-minute lineup change (such as a switch in starting pitcher).
Technical issues prevented me from writing up the Wednesday games this week, so instead let's take a look at the lines that spark some interest for Friday, May 6.
Oakland (Rich Hill) at Baltimore (Ubaldo Jimenez), 7:05 pm ET: +120/-130
This might be one of the ones that got away. The public is fading Hill hard with 68 percent of moneyline bets on the O's, the over/under is 8.5 which favors betting the underdog, and while Jimenez could be undervalued, that doesn't mean he's been good (5.20 ERA vs. 4.11 SIERA this season). Unfortunately, there was a big correction on the odds overnight, and most books now have the line in the -105/-105 or -110/-110 range. Oakland's weak .293 wOBA against right-handers (24th in the league) is also a warning sign.
Recommendation: None, unless you can hop in a time machine and grab that +120 on the A's. But I can think of better uses for a time machine.
LA Dodgers (Kenta Maeda) at Toronto (Marcus Stroman), 7:07 pm ET: +130/-140
At first blush, this looks like a great spot to bet the underdog. The Jays have never faced Maeda before, which conventional wisdom suggests should give him an advantage (I've never actually seen a study confirming or denying that, though), and the public is firmly behind Toronto, giving them 61 percent of ML bets. However, the o/u is only 8, keeping it just below the required level of volatility for an underdog play, and Maeda himself is probably overvalued (1.41 ERA vs. 3.47 SIERA).
Recommendation: None. My gut says Dodgers, but the setup isn't ideal.
Kansas City (Yordano Ventura) at Cleveland (Danny Salazar), 7:10 pm ET: +120/-130
This is one of my rare bets on favorites. The public likes the underdog here (61 percent ML bets on the Royals), but SIERA suggests that Ventura is wildly overvalued right now (3.67 ERA vs. 5.66 SIERA). Unfortunately, SIERA also says that Salazar isn't a strong play either (2.40 ERA vs. 3.79 SIERA). If anything, that tells me to bet the over (the o/u line is at 7 and could be dropping, with the name-brand pitching matchup drawing 68 percent of bets to the under), but I'm focusing on the moneyline. Salazar might be a bit overvalued, but Ventura seems like a train wreck waiting to happen.
Recommendation: Back the Indians (one unit) at -130.
Texas (Cole Hamels) at Detroit (Jordan Zimmermann), 7:10 pm ET: +120/-130
Well, now. I expected Zimmermann to be overvalued (I mean, how can you not be with a 0.55 ERA) but a 4.10 SIERA is actually kind of shocking. Hamels (3.30 ERA vs. 4.30 SIERA) might also be seen as better than he's pitched, but Zimmermann's disparity is a little nutty. There are other reasons to look at Texas, too. Despite the seemingly premiere pitching matchup, the o/u line has been creeping up, starting at 7.5 but hitting 8 at most books and even 8.5 at a couple, which for underdog purposes is the magic number. The public's also firmly behind the Tigers, throwing 69 percent of ML bets at them. Detroit's even been struggling a bit against lefties, ranking 18th in wOBA against them at just .311. The guidelines I use don't quite make this a solid recommendation, but it wouldn't take much of a push to get there.
Recommendation: Back the Rangers (one unit) at +120, but you should be able to do better.
Arizona (Zack Greinke) at Atlanta (Aaron Blair), 7:35 pm ET: -165/+155
The o/u of 7 makes backing the underdog Braves a non-starter as the volatility just isn't there, but I'm listing this one anyway just because I find it amusing that the line is so big in addition to the public being so so firmly behind the Diamondbacks (80 percent of ML bets). All of this comes despite the fact that Greinke carries a 5.50 ERA into this game. Sure, his 3.81 SIERA is better, but it's not exactly good. Blair, a good prospect with all of two major league starts under his belt, is a total wild card.
Recommendation: None, unless you are just relentlessly contrarian.
Minnesota (Ricky Nolasco) at Chicago White Sox (Mat Latos), 8:10 pm ET: +130/-140
This might be another missed opportunity. The o/u of 8.5 checks one box, and the public absolutely hates Nolasco (81 percent of ML bets on the Pale Hose right now), checking a second one. SIERA even suggests Nolasco isn't so bad (4.05 ERA vs. 3.41 SIERA). Latos, on the other hand, is looking at an unsustainable 1.84 ERA vs. a 4.96 SIERA, which can't really be too much of a surprise. The line had an overnight correction, though, and most books now have it in the +115/-125 range. I need better odds than that if I'm going to back Ricky freaking Nolasco.
Recommendation: None, unless the odds move back in the Twins' favor.
Colorado (Chad Bettis) at San Francisco (Madison Bumgarner), 10:15 pm ET: +175/-210
Who doesn't like fading the Rockies on the road, particularly against a bona fide ace? The public is backing the Giants with 72 percent of ML bets, and I'm always looking for good underdogs plays, but with an o/u of 6.5 and no good reason to think Bettis is undervalued (3.89 ERA vs. 4.02 SIERA) or Bumgarner overvalued (3.03 ERA vs. 3.28 SIERA) this doesn't seem like a good spot.
Recommendation: None, even though the odds on the Rox keep moving up.
NY Mets (Noah Syndergaard) at San Diego (Drew Pomeranz), 10:40 pm ET: -160/+150
See above, but even moreso. The public has Thor's back to the tune of 85 percent of ML bets, but the o/u is a measly 6, and Syndergaard might even be undervalued (2.51 ERA vs. 2.04 SIERA), which is a terrifying thought. Pomeranz also might be seen as better than he is (2.48 ERA vs. 3.40 SIERA), and the Mets rough up lefties (.340 wOBA, fifth in MLB). I'm almost starting to convince myself to back a -160 favorite here. Yikes.
Recommendation: None, nada, no thank you, nope.
YTD performance: 4-4-1, plus 3.00 units, ROI plus 33.33%
