This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
This week my rumblings focus on a pair of my favorite and easy to understand and analyze metrics: xFIP and BABIP. Call this an over-simplistic exercise if you will, and while numbers don't always tell the full story, they often tell a good portion.
10 BABIP Kings Poised for a Decline
It's not the most astute analysis to take the top 10 BABIP leaders and predict that their batting average will drop over the last four months. We won't do that here, but we will look at some guys with abnormally high BABIPs. With a league average typically in the .300 range, we can safely say that the 10 guys with a BABIP greater than .386 are carrying abnormally high BABIPs, no?
Jonathan Villar, SS, MIL (.425 BABIP, .308/.412/.423)
It was thought by now that Orlando Arcia would graduate from shortstop-of-the-future status to the real deal, but not with Villar playing at an All-Star level. Villar leads the majors with 19 steals, and with a .412 OBP, he has been incredibly valuable. In fact, Villar has a .446 OBP in the leadoff spot, tops in the majors. Villar never even hit .280 in the minors, so expecting him to sustain a .300+ average given the high BABIP is not realistic, but even if he hits .260 the rest of the way, his vastly improved plate discipline (14.1% BB%) should allow him to remain at or near the top of the order and push 40 stolen bases. Villar could eventually
This week my rumblings focus on a pair of my favorite and easy to understand and analyze metrics: xFIP and BABIP. Call this an over-simplistic exercise if you will, and while numbers don't always tell the full story, they often tell a good portion.
10 BABIP Kings Poised for a Decline
It's not the most astute analysis to take the top 10 BABIP leaders and predict that their batting average will drop over the last four months. We won't do that here, but we will look at some guys with abnormally high BABIPs. With a league average typically in the .300 range, we can safely say that the 10 guys with a BABIP greater than .386 are carrying abnormally high BABIPs, no?
Jonathan Villar, SS, MIL (.425 BABIP, .308/.412/.423)
It was thought by now that Orlando Arcia would graduate from shortstop-of-the-future status to the real deal, but not with Villar playing at an All-Star level. Villar leads the majors with 19 steals, and with a .412 OBP, he has been incredibly valuable. In fact, Villar has a .446 OBP in the leadoff spot, tops in the majors. Villar never even hit .280 in the minors, so expecting him to sustain a .300+ average given the high BABIP is not realistic, but even if he hits .260 the rest of the way, his vastly improved plate discipline (14.1% BB%) should allow him to remain at or near the top of the order and push 40 stolen bases. Villar could eventually slide over to second base to replace Scooter Gennett or third to take over from Aaron Hill once Arcia is deemed ready.
Daniel Murphy, 2B, WAS (.420 BABIP, .397/.428/.624)
Murphy is on pace to nearly double his career high in home runs (14) and could top 100 RBI for the first time in his career. We can rest assured that he's not going to hit .397 the rest of the way, but what is the over/under on his June-September batting average? .320 maybe? Let's focus on the power. Murphy is hitting far more fly balls this year (45.1% vs. 33.6% career), and a league-average 11.5% of them are going for home runs. He's hitting the ball harder (39.3% hard hit %) and per pitch f/x data, Murphy is absolutely destroying fastballs. Bottom line: he's a different hitter this year, and while the average will certainly trend down, seeing him finish at .330/25/100 wouldn't be a huge surprise. Fortunately for the Mets, Murphy's replacement, Neil Walker, is having his own power spike with 13 home runs.
Mark Reynolds, 1B, COL (.415 BABIP, .307/.375/.427)
Seeing Mark Reynolds batting .307 with just two home runs is one of the more unlikely stat lines we've seen this year. He should be an easy 20-25 homer guy playing half his games in Coors Field, and considering last year's .230 average was his highest mark since 2009, his current average is shocking. Reynolds' strikeout rate is down from 28% to 25% year over year, but that's not enough to explain the BA increase. I haven't seen any indication that Reynolds is consciously trying to hit fewer fly balls and more line drives and grounders, but so far at least, sacrificing some power for a higher batting average seems to be working for him. Whether that continues is an open question, but it's hard to ignore that between 2010-2015, Reynolds hit just .214. If I had to predict a BA for June-September, .250 sounds about right.
Starling Marte, OF, PIT (.407 BABIP, .325/.367/.469)
As a direct result of his .325 average, Marte is on pace to top 50 steals (17 now) for the first time in his career after recording 30 in each of the previous two seasons. With a BB% of just 2.4%, Marte's OBP is being propped up by his BABIP, and while a .407 BABIP likely won't be sustainable, Marte's career BABIP is .360, so maybe he can sustain something in the .370 range, which could mean a .300 average the rest of the way is doable. There isn't any notable variance in Marte's batted ball data this year compared to prior seasons, so I'm pretty confident he can hit .300 the rest of the way. Now if he can walk a little more…
Xander Bogaerts, SS, BOS (.402 BABIP, .350/.401/.516)
We thought last year's .374 BABIP was unsustainable, but Bogaerts is taking it to a new level this year. He's walking more (7.6% BB% vs. 2015's 4.9%), and Bogaerts is on pace for 18 home runs versus his career high of 12 (2014). He's also running more with seven steals, making him a 20/20 candidate this year. It would be good to see a few more fly balls (26.7% FB%) but that could come later in the 23-year-old's career. Bogaerts hit .395 in May with five home runs, so while the BABIP will drop a bit, it's not out of the question that he could hit .330 the rest of the way.
Dexter Fowler, OF, CHC (.392 BABIP, .317/.434/.533)
Fowler's defense in center is grading out as the best of his career, and his stat line at the plate isn't too shabby either. To think, 29 other teams felt that giving Fowler a 2-to-3 year deal and surrendering a draft pick wasn't worth it. Fowler did slump to .250/.346/.411 while grading out as an average defender last year, but he's playing his way into a nice contract once the season ends. His BB% is a career-best 14.6%, his strikeouts are down, and he could play his way into a 20/20 season. Fowler had a .393 BABIP season in 2012 and his career mark is .345, and if he keeps hitting the ball hard (38% Hard Hit Rate), I don't expect the BABIP to decline significantly.
Eduardo Nunez, SS, MIN (.392 BABIP, .340/.367/.509)
The man formerly known as Derek Jeter's "replacement" turned utility man is outhitting Eduardo Escobar (.582 OPS), but whether he continues to play regularly at the expense of either Escobar at shortstop or Trevor Plouffe at third is in question. It won't be in question long however, if Nunez maintains anywhere near a .300 average, much less .340. With five homers and nine steals in just 159 at-bats, Nunez has been super productive when he's played, and given his production to date, he should continue to play most every day.
David Freese, 3B, PIT (.391 BABIP, .296/.374/.428)
Freese has been a solid pickup for the Pirates, even though four home runs in 46 games for a corner infielder is not quite the power we want to see. Freese had a .314 BABIP last year and given he's not exactly a burner on the basepaths, expect that .391 mark to drop sharply. In addition, Freese has seen his GB% spike to a well-above average 64.9% versus his 52.8% career mark, so that helps explain the power outage. All in all, Freese is a lower-power high-OBP guy who has value in deeper formats, but look elsewhere for your third baseman in 12-team mixed leagues.
Steven Souza, OF, TB (.389 BABIP, .269/.332/.468)
This one is fascinating. A guy with a .389 BABIP hitting just .269? How is this possible? Well, part of it has to be related to Souza's sky high 35.8% K%, indicating that he makes contact relatively infrequently, but when he does, it's finding holes more often than can be expected. Souza, like others on this list, has seen his ground ball rate spike this year, jumping to 49.5%. Given his career .329 BABIP and astronomical strikeout rate, Souza is at risk for hitting in the low-.200s the rest of the way.
Marcell Ozuna, OF, MIA (.387 BABIP, .333/.384/.579)
The light has gone on. Ozuna has displayed flashes of his immense potential the past three seasons, but it's all come together in the month of May, as Ozuna hit .411/.450/.705. Ozuna has a .341-OBP season and a .338 career mark, so he's a guy who has proven he can maintain an above-average BABIP. That said, it's tough for a free-swinger like Ozuna to maintain a well-above average BABIP, but given his age and previous prospect upside, all signs point to this as a true breakout for Barry Bonds' protégé. Let's just hope Ozuna and Dee Gordon aren't on the same "nutritional plan".
10 High xFIP/Low ERA guys in line for an ERA correction
I'm assuming most readers have at least heard of FIP or xFIP. Basically, it's a statistical approximation of what a pitcher's ERA should be based on controllable outcomes – strikeouts, walks, HBP, and fly balls. It attempts to filter out things such as defense and luck (or lack thereof). A high xFIP and low ERA would indicate that a pitcher's ERA seems likely to rise given that things like luck are difficult to maintain over the course of a full season. Here we will look at the 10 pitchers who have the largest negative disparity measured by subtracting xFIP from ERA:
Jason Hammel, Cubs (2.09 ERA, 4.20 xFIP)
Hammel is on this list due to his 3.5 BB/9 and well below average 5.5% HR/FB rate. It's interesting to note this:
K/9: 2015 – 9.1; 2016 – 8.0
BB/9: 2015 – 2.1; 2016 – 3.5
Essentially he's been a worse pitcher this year than last year when he posted a 3.74 ERA. Sell high if you can.
Marco Estrada, Blue Jays (2.43 ERA, 4.53 xFIP)
Turning 31 and moving from the NL Central to the AL East isn't usually a recipe for success for any pitcher, but after posting a 3.13 ERA in a career-high 181 innings for Toronto a year ago, Estrada continues to exceed expectations this season. Given his 88.5-mph fastball, Estrada would own the "crafty" label if he were left-handed. His 3.5 BB/9 is a bit troublesome, and he allows more fly balls than ground balls. All in all, Estrada has the look of a 4.15+ ERA guy the rest of the way, but considering he outperformed his xFIP last year as well (3.13 ERA, 4.47 xFIP), don't completely discount the possibility of a sub-3.50 ERA performance the rest of the way.
Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers (2.52 ERA, 4.36 xFIP)
Zimmermann appears here primarily because his 5.9 K/9 is abnormally low for a guy with his sort of control (1.6 BB/9) and overall stuff. His 7.3% swinging strike rate is well below the 9.9% league average, and hitters are making contact with his pitches inside and outside of the zone at rates higher than league average. Basically he's far from dominant, and guys who rely solely on pinpoint control are at risk for cold streaks. That could easily happen with Zimmermann.
Joe Ross, Nationals (2.37 ERA, 4.07 xFIP)
Despite a minor increase in walks and a K/9 that's dropped from 8.1 to 6.8 year over year, Ross has maintained an excellent ERA and deserves better than a 5-4 recrd. All in all, with a 6.8 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9, Ross has the profile of a guy who should be putting up an ERA near his xFIP, but I'll allow for some improvement the rest of the way considering this is his first full season in a big league rotation and say that a 3.50 ERA the rest of the way can be expected.
Steven Wright, Red Sox (2.45 ERA, 4.14 xFIP)
Pitchers don't normally set their career high in starts at age 31, but Wright has already done that this year with his 10th start having come Monday. He's a bit lucky to have allowed just three home runs in 69.2 innings given he surrendered 12 in just 72.2 frames a year ago. The knuckleballer didn't start using his knuckler consistently until the 2012 season, but it appears to be working for him now. If Wright can improve upon his 3.4 BB/9, he should be able to withstand the regression that is likely to come.
Nick Tropeano, Angels (3.25 ERA, 4.86 xFIP)
Tropeano has been a bit of a bright spot amidst a challenging set of injuries that has befallen the Angels' rotation this season. Given his 4.81 Triple-A ERA last year, Tropeano looks to have clearly risen to the challenge of holding down a big league rotation spot, but there are warning signs. Those include a 4.6 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9, both deadly numbers mitigated by an 84.6% strand rate and solid 8.8 K/9. Tropeano should at least make another 15 big league starts this season, but the ERA can be expected to rise, perhaps significantly.
Jake Arrieta, Cubs (1.56 ERA, 3.14 xFIP)
Arrieta and Clayton Kershaw have the same 1.56 ERA, but Kershaw has him in strikeouts (10.9 K/9 vs. 9.0) and walks (0.52 BB/9 vs. 3.0), indicating that Arrieta is more likely to see his ERA rise than Kershaw. Now that doesn't that you should be worried, but if someone offers you Noah Syndergaard (1.98 xFIP, 1.84 ERA) straight up for Arrieta, what would you do? Arrieta may be more likely to net wins the rest of the way based on the Cubs offense, but Syndergaard's K/9 is an elite 11.5 and his 1.3 BB/9 isn't too shabby either. It's a trade that is justifiable on either side. The bottom line, though, is that Arrieta is still elite and given he outperformed his xFIP last year (xFIP: 2.61, ERA: 1.77), I can still see a sub-2.00 ERA the rest of the way.
Colby Lewis, Rangers (3.09 ERA, 4.62 xFIP)
Lewis has posted quality starts in seven of his last eight, but the peripherals suggest the party will come to an end at some point. He's fanned a total of three hitters over his last two starts and had a zero-strikeout game earlier in the season in which he tossed seven innings of two-run ball. That's tough to do. Lewis averages 87.3 mph with his "fastball", resulting in a 6.0 K/9 that has been falling recently. He's mitigated that by compiling a 1.9 BB/9, but Lewis is prone to the home-run ball (1.3 HR/9), and when his command isn't sharp, the results could get ugly. If you can get a decent return for him in a trade, I'd take it.
Matt Wisler, Braves (3.16 ERA, 4.66 xFIP)
Wisler, by most accounts, tops out as a future No. 4 or maybe No. 3 starter in a good rotation, but he's having a pretty solid first full season in a big league rotation at the age of 23. Wisler averages 92.7 mph with his fastball and his slider is decent too, but his change is below average and used infrequently. Developing a third pitch could take him as far as a No. 2 starter ceiling, but his 6.0 K/9 and low 6.8% HR/FB rates suggests regression in his 2016 ERA could be on the horizon.
Martin Perez, Rangers (3.12 ERA, 4.59 xFIP)
Perez reached Double-A as an 18-year-old prodigy, but his upside has seemingly fallen off the map since. Now 25, Perez has a career 4.01 ERA in 358.2 innings despite a 5.8 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. In top starters, we want to see at least a 3:1 K:BB, but Perez is barely hovering above 1:1 this year with a 5.4 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9. If he maintains anywhere near a 3.12 ERA the rest of the way, I'll buy Scott Pianowski a steak dinner.
