This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
While pondering the miraculous feats of slugger Brian Dozier this week, I thought a relevant topic for this week's piece would be around players who have shown the biggest improvement so far this season and whether it is something that can be sustained in 2017.
To do this, I included in my population only those guys who have had at least 200 plate appearances in each of 2015 and 2016. It's too easy to get caught up in minute sample sizes, so this should be sufficient to draw some conclusions. We'll also look at improvement through the lens of OPS just for the sake of keeping things simple.
260 players ended up meeting the above criteria, with the breakdown looking like so:
Improvement of 100 or more points: 44
Improvement between > 0 points and less than 100: 90
Decline between> 0 points and less than 100: 93
Decline of greater than 100 points: 33
Those that fell in the final and ignominious category included some of the game's best players: Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, and Paul Goldschmidt, among others. It just goes to show you how hard it is to maintain elite levels of performance at the big league level.
For the purposes of this piece, we'll focus on a handful of the players that comprised the "Improvement of 100 or more points category". Some of the more recognizable names in that grouping include Ichiro Suzuki, Jonathan Lucroy, Jose Altuve,
While pondering the miraculous feats of slugger Brian Dozier this week, I thought a relevant topic for this week's piece would be around players who have shown the biggest improvement so far this season and whether it is something that can be sustained in 2017.
To do this, I included in my population only those guys who have had at least 200 plate appearances in each of 2015 and 2016. It's too easy to get caught up in minute sample sizes, so this should be sufficient to draw some conclusions. We'll also look at improvement through the lens of OPS just for the sake of keeping things simple.
260 players ended up meeting the above criteria, with the breakdown looking like so:
Improvement of 100 or more points: 44
Improvement between > 0 points and less than 100: 90
Decline between> 0 points and less than 100: 93
Decline of greater than 100 points: 33
Those that fell in the final and ignominious category included some of the game's best players: Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, and Paul Goldschmidt, among others. It just goes to show you how hard it is to maintain elite levels of performance at the big league level.
For the purposes of this piece, we'll focus on a handful of the players that comprised the "Improvement of 100 or more points category". Some of the more recognizable names in that grouping include Ichiro Suzuki, Jonathan Lucroy, Jose Altuve, David Ortiz, and Kris Bryant. Here, though, we'll focus on some of the non-stars as we continue to try and plant a seed or two as we look to 2017.
Numbers in parentheses below will be 2015 OPS followed by 2016 OPS. Stats are through games of Tuesday, Sept. 6.
Ian Desmond, OF, TEX (.674, .802)
Desmond reportedly bet on himself and turned down a seven-year $107 million extension from the Nationals, only to have an awful contract year and ultimately have to settle for a one-year $8 million from the Rangers. He's now hitting .287/.337/.565 with 21 home runs, 20 steals, 98 runs, and 81 RBI as an outfielder (qualifying at shortstop for fantasy) with the Rangers. Safe to say he won't have to settle for another one-year offer this winter. Think more like 5/75 or so. Desmond has notably cut his K% from last year's 29.2% to 24% this year, and predictably in Texas, he's showing a bit more power. It's certainly possible that in his age 31 season next year, that his stolen base totals will start to decline after now notching at least 20 steals in five of his last six seasons, but depending on where he lands (Texas will surely look to re-sign him), it looks like his days of .280 with 20+ home runs are not over after all.
Matt Joyce, OF, PIT (.563, .918)
Joyce clocks in as easily the most improved player in terms of OPS using the above criteria. He's hitting a surprise .262/.405/.513 with 12 home runs over 237 PA's. Unfortunately, he also has Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, and Gregory Polanco ahead of him and there is no DH in the National League. To that point, Joyce has recorded just 35 at-bats in his last 30 games, mainly as a pinch-hitter and occasional fill-in starter. Could this however land him a regular role in 2017? Joyce has been pegged as a platoon guy in recent years after batting just .109 in 55 at-bats versus southpaws in 2014-2015. This year he's been better, batting a decent .241/.371/.414 in 29 at-bats against them, though it seems likely that whichever team signs him next year will use him predominantly against RHP. I can easily see Joyce getting 450 plate appearances next year as teams look to go with a cheaper option.
Wilson Ramos, C, WAS (.616, .849)
I lucked into Ramos in a couple leagues, as I was hoping for the .272-16-59 he put up in 2013. I wasn't, however, expecting .306/.354/.495 with 20 homers and 72 RBI. The big improvement he's shown has been in his ability to hit right-handed pitching, against whom he's batting .308 this year after .228 and .249 marks the prior two campaigns. His 0.48 BB/K is his best mark there since 2012 and per FanGraphs, his hard hit rate is four percentage points above his career mark. His 6.9% BB% is his highest mark there in a full season since 2011. So essentially, he's shown improvement in pretty much every area at the plate this season. Ramos' .325 BABIP is 33 points above his career mark, so there could be some degradation in his batting average next year, but the power looks to be real and there's no reason why he can't be a top-five fantasy catcher again next year.
Brian Dozier, 2B, MIN (.751, .929)
Where to start. How about 39 home runs? How about 22 in his last 36 games? Then there's a .580 slugging percentage that ranks third behind David Ortiz and Daniel Murphy, but ahead of guys like Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Mike Trout, and others. He's on pace to score 100+ runs for the third consecutive season, has added 13 stolen bases, and he should top 110 RBI. He'll play in 147+ games for the fourth straight year in 2016, and in those four years, his home run totals have trended as follows: 18, 23, 28, 39. Not too shabby. I imagine we'll be conservative and project something in the area of 35 home runs next year, but who really knows? 19.2% of Dozier's fly balls this year have left the yard, and while that's higher than the approximately 10% average, good home run hitters have shown the ability to be in the 15%-20% range consistently, so maintaining that rate or close to it isn't out of the question. He looks legit.
Anthony Rendon, 3B, WAS (.707, .813)
This is probably the first year in which Rendon didn't wind up on several of my teams, as injuries and relative lack of performance have sapped my enthusiasm for rostering his services. This year he's at least stayed healthy, as after playing in just 80 games last year, he's at 134 this season in early September. His overall line is very reminiscent of his solid 2014 season:
2014 - .287/.351/.473, 21 HR, 17 SB
2016 - .275/.355/.458, 17 HR, 12 SB
Is this who he is going to be going forward, or is there more there in the power department? Remember, Rendon was the #6 overall pick and consensus top hitter in the 2011 draft and while he's been solid when healthy, .275 with 20 or so home runs from a third baseman isn't all that special. This year, 15 regular third baseman have more home runs than his 17 and another 15 are batting higher than his .275. Sounds very average. On his side is that he's walking more than 10% of time and striking out less than 20%, but whether he takes a leap in power is just too tough to predict with any confidence. Given he's 26 and given that he was a former #6 overall pick, I expect improvement next year, but probably more in the range of .290-25-90 than Kris Bryant numbers.
Jake Lamb, 3B, ARI (.717, .864)
One of a handful of bright spots in a tough season for Arizona, Lamb has bashed 27 homers this year after tallying six for the Dbacks in 2015. From a rate perspective, that equates to an AB/HR rate of 16.6 versus 58.3 in 2015. Pretty remarkable. Lamb overall has extra base hits in 51.7% of his total hits while drawing walks in 9.9% of his PA's. He's been pretty abysmal against LHP, batting just .159/.271/.330 in 88 at-bats, but Arizona isn't platooning him, at least for now. His 25.5% K% is going to limit his BA upside, but Lamb should settle into being a .260-25-85 type of guy for a few years.
Hernan Perez, OF/INF, MIL (.584, .781)
Due to injuries, I took a flier on Perez in one league earlier this year, as I need a warm body and I liked that he qualified at 2B, 3B, and OF. What I didn't expect was that he would hit 13 home runs and swipe 29 bases. Other than showing the ability to swipe 25 bags in the minors, the 25-year-old hasn't shown any sort of hint that this sort of breakout was coming. With a .305 OBP and 4.7% BB%, Perez's upside is rather limited, but given that the vast majority of teams that own him now didn't draft him, Perez has provided immense value. I don't see him getting a sniff at a starting job next year for the Brewers, but given his versatility, he should have plenty of value in deeper formats. Just don't expect much more than what we've seen this year, if that.
Steve Pearce, UT, BAL (.711, .881)
So here's a guy I'd love to see some team give 500 or more at-bats to. Pearce topped out at 338 at-bats in 2014, a year in which he hit .293/.373/.556. Pearce then slumped to a .711 OPS last year, before rebounding this season. He's destroyed lefties in 2014 as well as this year (DFS players know this), and if your league's positional requirements are 10 games played, Pearce is eligible at 1B, 2B, and the outfield, which certainly helps. With an 11.4 BB% and 17.9% K%, Pearce is making good hard contact. Teams looking for a LF/1B/DH next year would be wise to sign Pearce to a two or three-year deal and give him more at-bats than 350, and I'm hopeful he'll get that chance.
Brandon Moss, 1B, STL (.711, .865)
Moss has bashed 25 home runs, and while a 30% K% has limited his BA to .250, that's still more than we projected him for (.239) this preseason. Moss is a lefty swinger who hits for far more power versus RHP, but at the same time, he's hit for a higher BA versus southpaws in each of the past three years, so he's not an automatic platoon guy. Moss' relatively poor 2015 could possibly be attributed to offseason hip surgery, so I'd be okay projecting him as a .260-30-85 type guy next year depending on where he ends up.
Tyler Flowers, C, ATL (.651, .791)
Flowers has started 13 of the team's last 19 games since returning from a hand injury as the Braves have pushed A.J. Pierzynski to a backup catcher role. Flowers is 30, but he is under team control next year and should have a line on the team's starting catcher role headed into camp. He has just seven home runs in 224 at-bats, so his power hasn't developed like we hoped it would, but the 140-point OPS increase can be directly attributable to a spike in his BB% to 9.2% this year. Flowers has posted sub-6% marks in each of the three preceding seasons, and though the HR total is relatively modest, he does have one more extra base hit this year than last in 101 fewer plate appearances. Given his age and the Braves' rebuilding status, I can see Flowers being shopped this winter, but given his 2016 improvement, I do expect he'll get the lion's share of some team's catcher at-bats.
Next week we'll look at 10 pitchers from a similar perspective.
