This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
How to Deal with a Terrible Football Day
After a strong Week 1 where I won big in most of my key leagues and went 10-6 against the spread, I had a bad Week 2, where most of my teams lost, I went 7-9 ATS and 2-3 in the Westgate Las Vegas Supercontest. My instinct in these situations is usually to toggle between two modes of coping: angry despair and apathetic detachment.
Angry despair has its merits. While it prevents you from enjoying life, it does keep you accountable, focused and motivated to avoid a repeat. You might not be pleasant company, but at least you care. Apathetic detachment has the benefit of allowing you to enjoy life, but it's a shallow enjoyment. Your ability to divest so easily calls into question your commitment. If you can so easily let go of your failure in one endeavor, maybe you can do the same in all facets of your life. A numb indifference to your performance costs you any type of edge you might once have had. The price of being too cool, so to speak. You're basically this guy.
Over the years, as I've moved between these two poles I've gradually learned a better strategy: mild annoyance and focused determination. You have to be at least a little angry when your investment of time, money and attention comes to naught. But 2016 fantasy football is more about sticking with it than it's ever been. The constant injuries, ever-shifting RB committees, different ways to score (PPR-specialists, goal-line backs, running QBs) and easily-accessible match-up data have transformed the game from largely a draft-and-hold contest to one where dogged hustle pays off. Every week I read the RotoWire player notes and in each of my seven leagues sort the free agents by position and go down every list to the end. I think about who will be good for the upcoming week and who might break out a few weeks hence. I'll even put in for a kicker or defense if the matchup is right. It's tedious, but more often than not, you'll cobble together a credible roster while many of your leaguemates are simply hoping their players stay healthy.
Is Health a Skill?
I drafted Keenan Allen in only one league this year, but it was an important one - the NFFC "Beat Chris Liss 2" with a $100K overall grand prize. It was a 3-WR and a flex PPR league, and I had the fourth pick in the second round. At the time, I considered Amari Cooper, T.Y. Hilton and Devonta Freeman, but I had all three in other places, so for the sake of diversity I took Allen. While Allen had a decent chance to catch 120 passes had he stayed healthy, I'm still convinced it was a bad pick because I believe health is a skill.
While Allen missed half of last season with lacerated kidney, he also missed two games to a broken collarbone at the end of an injury-riddled and disappointing 2014 (quad and groin). He also came into the league with a PCL tear that cost him a couple games, and was on the injury report with a shoulder issue that year too. And this was before he tore his ACL in Week 1.
Maybe Allen's just been unlucky, and no doubt some of the injuries (having his kidney lacerated by a hit) have an element of that. But there a few factors in player health that don't seem random to me:
(1) Prior injuries - any body part that's been injured is more likely to get injured again or compensated for resulting in a different, but related injury;
(2) Genetics - I'd have to imagine some humans have ligaments or muscles that are more flexible than others, more resistant to tearing or able to heal faster or function better despite damage;
(3) Elusiveness - Some players like Antonio Brown are so quick and elusive, they probably don't take as many direct hits, or hits while they're planting a leg in the ground. Allen was a bigger target than Brown and not nearly as shifty;
(4) Proprioception - Players have different levels of understanding where there bodies are in space at a given time. So if one player's ankle starts to give or turn as it's stuck in the turf, perhaps he reacts a split second sooner to shift weight off it before the ligament is damaged; and
(5) Instincts/Psychology - I imagine some athletes instinctively avoid harm better than others.
It's hard to quantify many of these variables, but the inability to measure something precisely doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Moreover, the fact that luck plays a part doesn't mean that skill plays no part. I'd caution against being too sure we know who's injury prone and who's just been unlucky, but if you have a bad feeling about an often-injured player who takes too many hits, it's useful as a tiebreaker. That player for me this year was Julio Jones - we'll see if I get burned by following that hunch.
Bet the Skills, Fade the Coachspeak
The buy-low window on DeVante Parker is closed, so I hope you acted before this past week. This summer, there was some disappointment as Parker battled a nagging hamstring injury, and he was temporarily demoted to third on the depth chart behind Kenny Stills. But Parker is a size/speed freak, the 14th overall pick in last year's draft and was highly productive down the stretch last year. Physical skills, pedigree, organizational investment and NFL production are the variables that should have had weight for you, not the temporary perception of his coaches and their words of disappointment. Actually, if you clicked through the negative headlines and actually read what coach Adam Gase was saying, he compared Parker to Demaryius Thomas who had similar nagging muscle issues before he became one of the league's top receivers.
Other candidates on whom to buy low after the coaches spoke ill of them this preseason: Kevin White, Dorial Green-Beckham, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Kenyan Drake.
Week 2 Observations
• I predicted the Giants would run too much and not target Odell Beckham down the field, and regrettably I was right. Eli Manning averaged 9.0 YPA against one of the league's worst pass defenses, but the Giants still ran 28 times for 69 yards and didn't throw deep until the final drive. Of course, the two deep passes resulted in an easy would-be TD that Beckham dropped and a game-sealing catch by Victor Cruz on the next play. But coach Ben McAdoo waited until the game was tied in the fourth quarter to play to his biggest matchup advantage. Before then it was as if he had no idea who was on his team or what opponent he was playing.
• After showing courage (and wisdom) in the first quarter by going for the TD on 4th and goal from the two rather than kicking a FG, McAdoo kicked the field goal on 4th-and-goal from the 1 in a tie game to go up three with nearly nine minutes left. If you don't score (against one of the league's worst defenses), you'd still have a significant advantage by having the Saints take over at the one-yard line. Instead, McAdoo left the TD on the table, got the field goal and kicked off.
•Eli Manning was fairly sharp and would have had a big day but for three fumbles, the failed fourth-down conversion and McAdoo's play calling. Manning has two things going for him: the poor run game and the excellent receiving corps, but an improved defense, and McAdoo's poor game management and unwillingness to take shots down the field are headwinds.
• The Giants defense is at least decent this year, and it might be very good, but don't get too excited about holding Drew Brees to 6.0 YPA – his road YPA on the year was only 7.0 in 2015, and his TD/INT ratio only 9:6.
•Michael Thomas caught four of his five targets for 56 yards and looked agile, quick and hard to bring down while doing it. He's also 6-3, 212.
• It's too bad Josh McCown's hurt because there was some circus-atmosphere upside in Cleveland, and that's before counting Josh Gordon's return. Cody Kessler is likely to take over, but should he fail or get hurt, you have to wonder whether WR Terrelle Pryor could see a turn under center. If that happens with any regularity, he'd immediately be a top-20 WR with upside for more.
• Rookie Corey Coleman had his breakout game, but with McCown out and Gordon coming back, the deck is re-shuffled. Isaiah Crowell could see a big workload, but his outlook was also brighter with a semi-competent veteran.
• Neither Terrance West nor Justin Forsett has impressed over two games, making it more likely rookie Kenneth Dixon has a big role if and when he returns from his knee injury.
•Dennis Pitta was Joe Flacco's first read, racking up 12 targets and 102 yards. Steve Smith and Mike Wallace saw six targets each with Wallace scoring twice.
•Dak Prescott managed 9.7 YPA and got Dez Bryant 12 targets. The Cowboys aren't hiding him, and this might be the first stretch where Bryant prospers without Tony Romo. Incidentally, if Prescott continues to play well, it's conceivable he'd keep the job even after Romo got healthy. Why disrupt the flow for someone who will probably just get hurt again in the next game or two?
• Even though Alfred Morris scored a TD after Ezekiel Elliott was benched for fumbling, there's no way Dallas will bench its No. 4 overall pick for an extended stretch.
• The Bengals attempted 54 passes and 18 runs against the Steelers, the ratio the Giants should have had against the Saints.
• The Bengals shut down Antonio Brown, one week after largely shutting down Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. They are a tough team against which to pass.
• Through two games, 33-year old DeAngelo Williams is the league's top fantasy back, but he's merely averaging 4.1 YPC and 6.6 YPC. It's the volume (58 carries, 10 catches) on a good team that's paying the bills. When Le'Veon Bell returns in Week 4, he should see that kind of volume, only with more efficiency.
•Jimmy Garoppolo looked like a more mobile version of Tom Brady before he went down. Unlike in Dallas, there's a zero percent chance he'd keep the job once the incumbent returns – even if he hadn't gotten hurt. But it is amazing how well he's played both in Arizona (which destroyed Jameis Winston) and against the Dolphins (who destroyed Russell Wilson.) But it's hard to say how much is Garappolo and how much the Patriots system. Even Jacoby Brissett was competent when he came into the game.
• With Arian Foster hurt again, take a flier on rookie Kenyan Drake. Jay Ajayi has never shown much of a spark, and his attitude was poor once he lost the job too.
•Martellus Bennett did what many expected last week with Rob Gronkowski out. Of course, Brissett is likely to start the Thursday game against the Texans.
• Some were excited about Matt Stafford after his strong finish in 2015 and big game against the Colts in Week 1, but all his damage was against league doormats. The Titans aren't even good, Stafford was at home, and he managed only 6.5 YPA.
•Golden Tate was an afterthought yesterday as Marvin Jones led the team in targets again. Eric Ebron was robbed of a TD on an offensive PI and seems to be a big part of the offense, especially in the red zone. Dwayne Washington might be worth a pickup if Ameer Abdullah (foot) is out.
• If the Panthers defense isn't good, Cam Newton will have another monster year, despite the tougher schedule. Kelvin Benjamin looks like a top-10 receiver right now. I wish I had any shares.
• With Jonathan Stewart out, some combination of Fozzy Whitaker and Cameron Artis-Payne will take over. I'm not sure how much it matters, though, as Newton steals most of the goal-line carries unless Mike Tolbert does, and Carolina rarely throws to its tailbacks, i.e., there's not much upside here, and the situation is uncertain.
• The Texans ran 34 times despite getting less than three yards per carry while the Chiefs ran only 19 times for 119 yards. (6.5 YPC). DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller saw 18 of Brock Osweiler's 33 pass attempts.
• The Seahawks are in trouble with Russell Wilson gimpy, and Doug Baldwin and Thomas Rawls also banged up. It would also help if they could block someone. Christine Michael was the team's most effective runner, and what looked like Rawls' job could be back up for grabs again, assuming Rawls is even healthy.
• I'd buy low on Todd Gurley if I could. Someone on Twitter traded Melvin Gordon for him, and I'd snap-call that. The Rams offense was awful last year too, and Gurley still produced.
• It was odd to see Jameis Winston still playing in a 40-7 game, and odder still for the Bucs to punt on 4th down. If you're going to leave your franchise quarterback in harm's way, at least give him all four downs to rack up stats!
• How is it possible for Lavonte David to go an entire game without a tackle? As someone who started him in my IDP league, I'd really like to know.
• If Doug Martin is out, Charles Sims is theoretically a top-15 back, even if Sunday's game didn't bear that out.
•Carson Palmer looks like himself again after a poor showing in the playoffs and an unsightly preseason.
• I was an idiot for laying points with the Raiders, a team in which I don't believe. I counted on the Falcons being terrible on the road, but I should have taken the points.
• I have no idea what people see in Derek Carr.
• Of course Julio Jones is banged up again. It probably won't keep him out, but it seems like every week. Too much stress if he's your second or third overall pick.
•Devonta Freeman had a good game as a runner, but he didn't get a single target. Meanwhile Tevin Coleman got two catches for 25 yards.
• Don't start QBs in Denver. Even the great Newton had a modest day, and Andrew Luck was awful.
• I had the Colts plus six, so I was aghast when Gary Kubiak opted for the field goal to go up six when the right play was to go for it on 4th-and-1 to end the game. The subsequent fumble TD was just a kick in the ass on the way out the door.
•Melvin Gordon looks like the only game in town now that Danny Woodhead's out for the year. I would sell high though as the efficiency (4.2 YPC), is modest, and he's only caught three passes. I'm glad I picked up a couple Tyrell Williams shares last week. At 6-4, 205 and with 4.44 speed, Williams has a good deal of upside in this offense, especially given Travis Benjamin (the No. 1) is a new arrival and Antonio Gates is 36 years old.
• The Jaguars are still bad, but Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson will get theirs.
• The Vikings are a good defense, but the Packers are still the same out-of-sync offense they were in 2015. If they don't put up huge numbers against the Lions at home this week, it might be time to let go of 2014 for good.
•According to Pro Football Focus, Adrian Peterson averaged only seven inches before contact so far this year, i.e., defenders were in the backfield before he could take half a step. Still, he's 31, can't catch passes, hasn't had room to run and now has torn his meniscus and could miss some time. Jerick McKinnon is the Jamaal Charlesesque home run play, but chance are Matt Asiata will get some work, particularly around the goal line.
• Everyone in my Twitter feed was raving about Carson Wentz, and I could see why. He made some good throws under heavy pressure and scrambled well when rushed. But he also managed 5.6 YPA against a weak Bears pass defense, though it would have been higher but for a bad drop by Jordan Matthews on a long throw. Essentially Wentz passes the eye test so far, but the numbers don't back it up yet.
•Jay Cutler might be hurt again. I actually feel bad for the guy. He's always running for his life behind that terrible line and always out with one ailment or another. He actually had 9.2 YPA against a better defense, but took three sacks and threw a pick. Backup Brian Hoyer isn't good, but he's probably good enough to keep Alshon Jeffery productive as Hoyer was DeAndre Hopkins' QB last year.
•Jeremy Langford's hold on the running back job is as tenuous as can be. He lost a fumble and averaged 2.8 YPC. Maybe the rookie Jordan Howard gets more work in Week 3.
•Darren Sproles had more carries (12) than Ryan Mathews (9), but Mathews scored both TDs. This doesn't bode well for Mathews having a consistent workload.
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