This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
Small Ball
In baseball, there's been plenty of pushback against small-ball tactics like bunting and playing for a single run when you can swing away and aim for a big inning. Similarly, in the NFL there's been pushback against punting on 4th-and-short in plus territory and kicking field goals near the goal line, but the risk aversion goes deeper than these easily-demonstrated negative-EV decisions: I'd argue teams far too often play to achieve first downs rather than touchdowns.
In other words, instead of aiming for a five-yard gain on 1st-and-10, and then a positive gain on second down to get you into a "third-and-manageable" rather than a third-and-long, why even get to third down at all? Why even get to second down if one doesn't have to? Too many coaches are calling plays as if maximizing the chance for a first down is the most important goal.
When you throw a 20-yard pass on 1st-and-10, you probably lower the chances of achieving the first down because there's a good chance you'll be looking at 2nd-and-10. But the flip side is you'll need to make fewer first downs per drive to score a touchdown. So if I lower my chances of making a first down from 70 to 60 percent, but I need only three first downs to score a TD rather than five, consider what happens. I have a 21.6 percent chance to score a TD rather than 16.8. Of course, I'm making up these numbers, but it illustrates a key point: it's not just your likelihood of success in converting each set of downs, it's also how many conversions per drive you need to get into the end zone.
Moreover, throwing deeper forces the defense to play the entire field rather than a small section of it. You often see teams bog down in the red-zone because defenses can bring their safeties up and stuff runs and short throws as there isn't much field behind them to defend. Why turn midfield into the red zone with a small-ball offensive scheme?
Relatedly, the offense needs to keep the defense off balance by running plays the defense doesn't expect and cannot predict. The more you are willing to use the entire field, the more variety of plays you have at your disposal. If you're mostly aiming to maximize your chances for a first down, the defense is more likely to know what you're up to.
The existence of a new set of downs every 10 yards add some complexity to NFL decision-making. If you had a running back who was guaranteed to gain three yards every play, you'd go 19-0 and win the Super Bowl (assuming your defense could get one stop per game.) But your per-play offense would be the worst of all time. So there's a balance between efficiency and consistency, but I'd argue coaches sacrifice too much of the former for the latter in their playcalling. (Consider this my weekly Ben McAdoo rant, though I have nothing specific because I'm writing this section Monday morning before the Giants have even played their game.)
As one of Gordon's bigger defenders during his two-year suspension saga, I was disappointed to hear he had checked into rehab, presumably to avoid yet another suspension for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy. The Browns, whose prior regime never had his back, seem likely to release him, though laughably they tried to trade him for a high draft pick last week. `
It's too bad not only for Gordon, or those who drafted him this year in fantasy, but also for football fans. I was hoping Cleveland with Gordon, Terrelle Pryor, Corey Coleman, Gary Barnidge and Duke Johnson could become "The Greatest Show on Grass."
Seriously though, Gordon's addiction is apparently to alcohol which is common rather than weed (for which no one would ever go to rehab), and it's obviously serious enough that he couldn't stay sober even with his career on the line. I'm not sure whether checking himself in precludes another season- or career-ending suspension, but if so, I'd hope another team would take a chance on a person who's harming mostly himself. It seems like a small risk compared to signing the likes of Greg Hardy. But this is the NFL, so it's possible this is the last we ever hear about Gordon in a football context.
If so, that would be tragic. Everyone's still reeling from the Jose Fernandez news last week, but this slow-motion destruction of another great athlete's career is also terribly sad.
Offsetting Penalties, Replay the Down
Player from Team A runs full speed helmet first and destroys a defenseless receiver. Player from Team B is illegally downfield. Offsetting fouls, replay the down. Player from Team A pulls out a gun (a la The Last Boyscout) and kills half of Team B, Player from Team B taunts the gunman. Offsetting fouls, replay the down. Is there some reason the NFL sees fouls from both sides as inherently equal, no matter what those fouls are?
And I've talked about this before, but if "taunting" ever determines the result of a playoff game or Super Bowl, the NFL will be in Tim Donaghy territory in terms of its credibility.
Four Week Busts
We're only a quarter of the way through the season, but already we can say with virtual certainly the following early-round players did not pan out: Adrian Peterson, Keenan Allen, Dez Bryant, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, Eric Decker, Donte Moncrief, Golden Tate, Doug Martin, Thomas Rawls, Josh Gordon, Jeremy Langford and Danny Woodhead. And that's not including Rob Gronkowski and Jamaal Charles who have done nothing through four games. That's essentially one quarter of the players from the first four rounds, and of course there have been plenty of underperformers including Odell Beckham, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandin Cooks and Mark Ingram. And rest assured more early rounders will join this group in the coming weeks. It goes to show that unless you get very lucky, your season will be made or broken by how you attack the waiver wire. Keep at it.
Week 4 Observations
• The Giants didn't target Odell Beckham until mid-way through the second quarter after they were down 14-0. Why get the ball into the hands of your best player?
• They did eventually throw deep to Beckham three times, one of which was picked, and on one of which there was uncalled defensive pass interference.
•Paul Perkins finally got a chance and made a huge play. It's mystifying how so many rookies are "not ready" until they play, and then of course they make plays. Maybe it's the coaches who are not ready to take a sensible chance on a new player?
•Orleans Darkwa ran well and scored a touchdown. It's likely Rashad Jennings will retain his role when he returns from a hand injury, but hardly set in stone.
•Bobby Rainey is the team's third-down back, though Perkins could cut into his role if McAdoo deigns to trust him.
• Despite Matt Asiata's one-yard TD, Jerick McKinnon is obviously the back to own in Minnesota, and the set-up is good for him – great defense, conservative game plan, limited skill players around him.
•Kyle Rudolph could be this year's Tyler Eifert, and that's fitting because he was the original Eifert when he was healthy several years ago.
•Cordarrelle Patterson made an appearance on offense. Remember when you wasted a third-round pick on him?
• We're not sending our best product over to the UK. Even during the two-minute drill at the end of the first half it was dink and dunk, penalty, penalty. The entire game I felt like I wanted to fast forward it to the action.
•Blake Bortles showed why he's a much better fantasy QB than real-life one. He runs, the Jaguars don't use their backs much at the goal-line, and his receivers make big plays after the catch.
• The Colts need to do a better job of protecting Andrew Luck, or he'll get hurt again. Six sacks and 5.6 YPA on a neutral field against the Jaguars is not okay.
•T.J. Yeldon actually ran well and caught four passes, but that was against a weak defense, and you can forget about touchdowns on this team.
• I dismissed Frank Gore due to his age and last year's second-half fall-off, but he looked okay, getting 4.3 YPC, scoring and catching five short passes. I still think the end is nigh, but he hasn't collapsed just yet.
• I faded Julio Jones in my drafts because he always seems to be nicked up, he doesn't score enough TDs and last year's 203 targets were bound to regress. After last week's one catch on seven targets I was feeling pretty smart. Then he hung 300 on Carolina. Still, only one TD though! Jones was a great DFS tournament play based on his high price, perceived tough matchup (though it's actually an easy one) and no-show last week. I imagine whoever won the million stacked him and Matt Ryan (500 yards) this week.
•Devonta Freeman is pulling away from Tevin Coleman as the feature back in Atlanta.
• Fozzy Whitaker got nine catches in a shootout, but there's little reason to invest in a Carolina RB.
•Kelvin Benjamin caught a TD, but he no longer looks like the potential top-10 wideout from Weeks 1-2. Greg Olsen is steady as ever.
• So much for Matthew Stafford under Jim Bob Cooter. Facing a depleted Bears defense, he managed 5.9 YPA, no offensive touchdowns and two interceptions.
• After doing virtually nothing in the first half, Golden Tate was benched in the second for a route miscommunication that resulted in an interception. He's obviously unstartable right now and he'll need to have a good game (which you'll necessarily miss) before you can trust him again.
•Dwayne Washington's injury forced Theo Riddick back into a feature back role, and once again it did not work.
•Jordan Howard had a strong game and is the team's unquestioned feature back going forward. Odd how he had a good deal of buzz in early August, but was buried after that. It's so rarely the touted "sleeper" backs (Derrick Henry, James White) who make the biggest impacts.
•Eddie Royal had a big game, but Kevin White led the team in targets for the second straight contest. You can't knock the Bears for trying to get last year's No. 7 overall pick involved, no matter how raw or inefficient he currently is. Meanwhile, Alshon Jeffery saw only five targets. Maybe he's still not entirely healthy.
•Brian Hoyer is a high-end backup. There's virtually no fall-off from Jay Cutler.
• The Patriots were due for a game like this. You can't lose arguably the greatest player of all time, lose his well-prepared backup and play as if nothing's amiss.
•LeSean McCoy is a top-seven back. He's still good enough, and the volume as a runner and receiver is huge.
•Martellus Bennett was the go-to receiver for the Patriots while Rob Gronkowski saw only two targets. That should change next week when Tom Brady comes back.
•Jimmy Graham had his second-straight 100-yard game. Not too many tight ends have done that the last several years. I suppose he's still an injury risk, but it's hard to rank him outside the top-five at TE right now.
•Russell Wilson's healing water must be for real.
•Ryan Fitzpatrick now has nine picks over his last two games. That has to be close to a record.
•Jordan Reed finally got into the end zone. He's got to be the top TE on the board right now with Gronkowski still working is way back.
•Terrelle Pryor had nine targets and scored a touchdown, but no pass attempts and only one carry. If he's going to be a garden-variety WR, life isn't worth living.
•Terrance West started and looked like a No. 1 RB Sunday. It'll be interesting to see how Kenneth Dixon's likely return affects his status next week.
•Steve Smith, unbelievably, is the Ravens No. 1 WR again at 37 after coming back from an Achilles' tear.
•Michael Crabtree saw 12 targets (and caught three TDs) while Amari Cooper saw six and caught none.
•DeAndre Washington outproduced Latavius Murray, but saw only five carries to Murray's eight.
•DeMarco Murray continues to have a monster season with two more scores and another 119 YFS.
•Lamar Miller continues to have high-volume without scoring. DeAndre Hopkins (six targets, one catch, four yards) probably misses Hoyer.
• Don't mess with the Denver defense. Jameis Winston, Mike Evans and Charles Sims were simply overmatched.
•Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch – either way. The Broncos' narrow tree benefits three players, Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas and C.J. Anderson, and the offense is clearly better than last year's thanks to the quarterback upgrade.
• If the Cardinals plan was to sell out to stop the run and let Case Keenum beat them, it worked like a charm. They stopped the run, and Keenum, with Brian Quick and Kenny Britt, beat them. In fact, he would have beat them even worse, but two big plays (one a run and one a pass while scrambling) were called back due to penalties.
•Todd Gurley got nothing on the ground, but his five catches for 49 yards was encouraging.
•Michael Floyd scored the TD, but John Brown saw 16 targets and converted them to 10-for-144. You never know which AZ WR will go off in a given week.
•David Johnson had another 124 yards from scrimmage but failed to score and lost a fumble. He also left the game briefly with an injury, but returned. On the broadcast, the announcers said no running back has ever opened the season with four straight 100-YFS games before Johnson. I find this hard to believe, but I'm noting it nonetheless.
• The Cardinals cost me two of my four survivor pool entries. It seems like it's often the week after a near miss (the Dolphins losing to the Browns would have put me in great shape) that the wheels come off.
• The Saints-Chargers game was a terrible beat if you had the Chargers minus four. San Diego was up 13 with six minutes left and had the ball, but lost fumbles on successive drives to lose the cover and the game. Then again, it's the Chargers.
•Drew Brees was again pedestrian on the road with 5.8 YPA, two TDs and two picks.
•Melvin Gordon keeps scoring TDs, but he's not a good running back. He averaged only 1.9 YPC vs. the Saints and fumbled while trying to close it out. He's plainly not the power back you can count on in the fourth quarter. If anything, he's more of a pass-catching third-down back, but even then he's no Danny Woodhead. I'd sell as quickly as I could.
•Tyrell Williams was second on the team with eight targets, but once again saw no work in the entire first half. Dontrelle Inman had a big game, making this a three-way WR timeshare between him, Travis Benjamin and Williams. And tight end Hunter Henry is also involved.
•Brandin Cooks is not likely to be the 145-target WR for whom you paid. Still, he'll light it up again once the Saints go back home. One issue, however, is two of the Saints remaining six home games are against the Broncos and Seahawks.
•Dak Prescott still hasn't thrown a pick.
•Ezekiel Elliott had a big day against the Niners, but I wasn't especially impressed. He had huge holes to run through, and he doesn't seem especially shifty. This isn't a Melvin Gordon situation as he's in a far better environment, and you can't argue with 6.0 YPC against anyone – Elliott is a top-five back. I'm just saying I don't see the No. 4-overall-pick talent when I watch him.
•Le'Veon Bell looks just fine after the layoff. He runs with more patience than any back in the league. DeAngelo Williams got the TD in garbage time, but he's no threat to cut into Bell's workload.
•Sammie Coates saw eight targets this week and made yet another big play. He's already had four catches of 40-plus yards in four games. To put that in perspective, Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham tied for the league lead with eight last year.
