The Z Files: Is It 2017 Already?

Speaking of rules, here are the ground rules with respect to what we can discuss publicly. All of our own picks are fair game. Anything posted on the NFBC forums is OK to share and analyze, leaving out the name of the team's owner. Presently the first three rounds are publicly viewable, so I'll present them here. Then, instead of going through the standard hack exercise of opining on each pick, I'll look at some early trends, keeping in mind this is only one draft, and an incredibly early one at that.

Here are the first three rounds:

DVR and I are free to discuss our selections. We drew the first pick, stuck with our original intention and grabbed Trout. Altuve and Betts were in the discussion but ultimately, the unique combination of perhaps the highest floor among hitters while still having upside is what tipped the scales. Betts may have a higher ceiling, but he has a limited track record. Before you scoff, keep in mind some were touting Correa in this spot last season. Altuve is more a game theory thing. As you can see, middle infield is loaded.

Is there a quieter superstar than Lindor? Especially in this era of man-crushes on the younger players, Lindor seems to slip under the radar. Maybe it's because he's solid across the board without standing out in any one category. Regardless, this is two consecutive years of consistent production so we were thrilled to make him our second pick.

Springer is a DVR-fave so I was fine with grabbing him. It didn't hurt that the Astros outfielder played all 162 games, shaking the injury-prone label. Expecting another 744 plate appearance season is optimistic, but there's no longer a need to discount him for potential lost time. Plus, 9-for-19 in steals isn't likely to repeat. Stolen bases in the teens is plausible.

On the topic of steals, we have somewhere around 50 without even trying. We didn't know it at the time but Team 4 snagged a lot of bags (and continued to do so), so we're in good shape if that induces some reaches emanating from category scarcity. We can continue to piece them together or nab a pilfering specialist later, especially since we're covered in batting average.

In terms of pitching, Derek and I made a list we'd consider at the turn (Scherzer, Bumgarner, Kluber) and a few we'd discuss if available (Sale, Syndergaard, Arrieta). All but Arrieta were taken, with Thor going right before our pair. Syndergaard was still on the table; we really didn't decide one way or another. I guess we'll never know if we'd have pulled the trigger.

With the reminder this is just one draft and with no idea of how the market ranks the inventory, the first three rounds were markedly different in terms of composition. If the trend holds true, it signals a huge shift in NFBC draft theory. Here's the number of players qualifying at each position in this draft as compared to the NFBC average draft position (ADP) for live events last spring.

The major difference is 10 more middle infielders were taken, while eight fewer pitchers are in the Top 45. It's also interesting to note that shortstop is getting all the love, mainly due to the quality of the top tier, but at least to this point more keystone sackers were drafted. Middle infield is just loaded!

The question is, will this continue? There's already some commentary on the NFBC forums suggesting several more pitchers will be propelled into the first three rounds. I wholeheartedly disagree. Sure, maybe a couple will get bumped up, but which pitchers make the leap and who do they knock out? I try not to toot my horn often, but I was prescient in this regard, going on record two months ago that I expected to see two early pitchers as a game plan waning in popularity. Well, the jury is still out; I may obviously be wrong. Perhaps the likes of Chris Archer, Johnny Cueto, Jon Lester, Carlos Carrasco, David Price or someone else sneak into the third round. But again, I ask, who leaves? I suppose Trumbo, Kemp, Odor and maybe Yelich are candidates, but that's still only four.

As of this writing, Derek and I just kicked off Round 7. At the 4/5 turn we double dipped with arms, taking Carrasco and Stephen Strasburg. Then at 6/7 we went Yoenis Cespedes and Julio Teheran.

Carrasco was the no-brainer. Speaking for myself, I was giddy betting on the Indians righty to start our staff. DVR and I agreed his injuries were more fluke than worrisome and expect a 200-inning campaign next year.

Strasburg was the interesting call, at least for me. His risk is known, no need to regurgitate. Let's say his situation has not changed in March, and he's still the same high-risk, high-reward hurler. Personally, I doubt I'll go in his direction, especially with Carrasco already in tow and with the expectation that pitching would be available at the next set of wheel picks. However, picking him here was motivated by a couple of factors. The first is, our ability to replace him is a lot greater than it will be in a March draft. There will be oodles of pitching that goes undrafted. There's no assurance of adding someone like Tanner Roark (as I did in the first FAAB in the league this year), but the quality and quantity of available arms will exceed standard leagues. Next, I have never owned and likely won't own Strasburg anywhere else this season, so here's a chance to have a share in case he pops. Hmm, maybe that's a bad way to say it for a guy with a tender elbow. Let's try, I wanted to own him in case he stays healthy and dominates.

The decision at the next set of picks was a hitter and pitcher or two hitters. I was fine either way, though the fact Teheran was available really greased the skids. DVR, rightfully, has some concern about a trade. However, you have to believe it will at least be to a good team. A move to the American League, or to a hitter's park, would hurt, but I'm on board enough with the righty's skills to call 2015 the outlier.

We agreed Cespedes was the best hitter available, so the concern was a third fly chaser. Keep in mind with such an early draft, just as with pitching, there's likely to be more outfielders that emerge to fortify the squad in the first free agent run, so it makes sense to use late picks on outfield spots. We still have a couple open plus utility, so in the event we happen upon an upgrade in the spring, we'll still get some decent juice out of it.

Next week I'll discuss our next set of picks. I'm happy to answer questions about the draft in the comments, with the understanding I can't be specific in terms of when players were drafted. Well, at least if I want to be invited back next year!