NFL Barometer: Redefined Value

In this week's edition, we'll look at a number of players who are redefining themselves as viable starting fantasy options. In addition, there are a few established players that might be worth trading based on their name-value in an attempt to improve fantasy rosters.

RISING

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL

Ryan started the season tearing apart some pretty terrible pass defenses before being derailed by the elite Broncos' unit in Week 5. But after going to Seattle and throwing three touchdowns to go with 335 passing yards, it's very possible that he's in the midst of a career year. Although the Falcons have an improved defensive unit, they'll still likely be in plenty of shootouts, which should ensure that the nine-year veteran continues to throw the ball enough to be a fantasy factor each week. He's only thrown for more than 30 touchdowns a single time in his career (in 2012 when he threw 32 of them to go with 14 interceptions), and he's currently on pace to throw 40 scoring strikes, which would shatter that number.

Kenny Britt, WR, LA

Earlier in his career, Britt displayed amazing ability, but between injuries and incidents off the field he was unable to realize his vast potential. He's now been mostly injury-free, while being an outstanding citizen over the last few seasons, and he's quietly becoming a very solid option that finally has a quarterback who's able to get him the football. He's now posted at least 75 receiving yards in four of his last five contests while catching an outstanding 20-of-24 targets, so he's been able to produce despite having a fairly small number of opportunities. Of course, after breaking out Sunday by posting 136 yards and two touchdowns, he'll likely be claimed in any leagues in which he was still available on the waiver wire. Those who have him on their fantasy team should trust him as a WR3 going forward, and if his targets ever increase, his value should rise accordingly.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE

Gronk has had back-to-back 100-yard games while scoring his first touchdown of the year Sunday, and he's looking like his typical all-world self. Despite his big games, it's possible that those who own him in fantasy leagues will be nervous about his potential touchdown totals being lower than expected after Martellus Bennett scored three of them in Week 5. The reality is that head coach Bill Belichick will continue to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers, meaning the Patriots have two legitimate high-end fantasy options. Although his stock is high right now, it still would be worth seeing if his current owner is willing to part with him for a reasonable price.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, DEN

Despite posting a mildly disappointing stat line in Week 6 that came on the road in a short week, Sanders posted at least 80 yards while scoring three touchdowns in the three games prior. His 40-yard output last week came in a game that had the entire Denver team out of sync, which is looking like his weekly floor. So overall, he's still a player whose value is still on the rise, especially as he's averaging over nine targets per game with defenses usually be more concerned with slowing down Demaryius Thomas and his big-play potential. In addition, the Broncos' rushing attack hasn't been as strong as expected, so his target share should remain high, making him a player who'll remain a strong weekly fantasy starter.

CHECK STATUS

Jay Ajayi, RB, MIA

After the Dolphins organization made it clear throughout the entire offseason that they were looking to upgrade at running back, Ajayi did little to prove them wrong while Arian Foster was sidelined for the last three weeks. With Foster finally active in Week 6, Ajayi was likely on the bench for many fantasy teams as he went off against the Steelers, pounding them for 204 rushing yards and a pair of scores. Logically, it would make sense for the Dolphins to keep using him after his outstanding performance, but unfortunately it's difficult to assume they'll make the easy choice of giving him a chance to be their starter. Fantasy owners who aren't buying in to his big game could have an ultimate sell-high moment on their hands.

Antonio Brown, WR, PIT

When a player sets a super-human standard for performance, an occasional mediocre stat line is little more than a blip on the fantasy radar. Put a few of those games together over a period of time, however, and concern begins to mount. Brown's now posted 78 or fewer yards in four of his last five matchups but scored three times during that span, so he's only been somewhat of a disappointment in two of those contests. However, he's still had at least 11 targets in four different games, so there's no reason to think that he won't end up with another dominant season. Given his lack of otherworldly dominance, and with Ben Roethlisberger (knee) now set to miss at least one game, his current fantasy owner could be a little nervous. That makes him a player to target in trade, as his value will probably never be lower than it is right now.

Torrey Smith, SF, WR

Torrey Smith, seriously? His name here is sure to elicit some hearty laughs after he had just a single catch for three yards over his previous two games, and he's rightfully on the waiver wire in many leagues. However, in Colin Kaepernick's first game as a starter in 2016, Smith had a team-high seven targets, catching three of them for 76 yards and a touchdown. Some analysts credited his long touchdown to a blown coverage by the defense, but that seems to be lazy analysis, as head coach Chip Kelly routinely is able to scheme his deep threat receivers to get wide open down the field. Unfortunately, noodle-armed Blaine Gabbert was unable to throw the ball deep, effectively neutering his best receiver. On the other hand, Kaepernick has a powerful arm, and his ability to evade pass rushers could allow him to connect with Smith on multiple occasions going forward. His scary floor makes him difficult to use as anything more than a flex option, but he has more upside than many other receivers on fantasy benches.

Robert Woods, WR, BUF

Since the Bills have won each of their last four games by fairly comfortable margins, they haven't needed to throw the ball very frequently. However, Woods has averaged 7.5 targets over his last four games (resulting in him posting at least 50 total yards in three of those contests), and he's beginning to look like a player who could have value as a flex option. Still very likely be found on waiver wires, fantasy owners in need of a solid depth option might be able to use him as bye weeks and injuries impact their weekly lineups. Woods also could be an intriguing option in games in which the Bills find themselves playing from behind, as he team often goes to a pass-heavy approach in that situation. Since the Bills prefer to be a run-heavy team, he has weekly downside, but looks to be emerging into a reliable option for a team that should continue to be without Sammy Watkins for the foreseeable future.

FALLING

Allen Robinson, WR, JAC

Robinson has failed to reach 58 receiving yards in any of his last four games, and it's starting to look as if a huge turnaround may not be on the horizon. First of all, Blake Bortles doesn't seem to have taken a step forward after his breakout second season in 2015, and the quarterback has struggled to consistently get the ball in the hands of his top playmaker. The result is that Robinson has averaged just eight targets over his last four games, which isn't enough to typically support a high-end fantasy option. This situation is tricky because he's producing enough to belong in weekly lineups, but his trade value is likely at its lowest of the season. Fantasy owners are probably best advised to hold onto him while lowering the expectations a bit.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, KC

The return of Jamaal Charles to the Chiefs lineup is fantastic news for Kansas City fans, but it might have a negative impact on Maclin, who already was having a shaky fantasy campaign. This downgrade has very little to do with his Week 6 performance in which he caught just three passes for 49 yards as the Chiefs were winning in a blowout, and were able to run the ball almost the entire second half. The bigger issue is that both Charles and Spencer Ware are going to command plenty of touches, and Maclin was averaging just five receptions per game before Charles' role started expanding, which will only grow going forward. With almost a third of the season in the books, the receiver has just a single touchdown and is on pace to post fewer than 1,000 receiving yards. It also hasn't helped that the coaching staff has used him in the slot on many occasions this year, which limits his big-play ability. Fantasy owners might consider packaging him with another player with the hope of scoring a net win in a multi-player deal.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB

Last season, it was easy to dismiss Rodgers' lack of typical production on the loss of Jordy Nelson and the early-season shoulder injury to Randall Cobb, but it's now becoming clear that he's no longer playing like the superstar he's been in the past. Although he's accounted for multiple touchdowns in four of his five games in 2016, he's had three different games in which he's failed to reach 215 passing yards, and has thrown three interceptions over the last two weeks. Although his stock is clearly falling based on where he was selected in fantasy drafts, A-Rod is still an obvious weekly starter. It's just that he's unlikely to provide the weekly dominance that many expected from him going into the season. Based on his name value, owners might be able to move him for a big return as long as they have other options in place at quarterback.

Jordan Reed, TE, WAS

When he's on the field, few players can produce like Reed at the tight end position, but therein lies the issue. After playing in 14 games last year, he was being drafted as a player who had minimal injury risk. However, this was a player who was placed on injured reserve after Week 11 of his rookie season with a concussion before missing an additional two contests last year, and now he's suffered the fifth known concussion of his career. There's no guarantee Reed will return from this injury, but even if he does, he could be one hit away from being out of the lineup for an extended time. Fantasy owners should consider seeing what can be acquired in return for him in a trade, as being without him during a playoff run could be a potential season-ender.