This article is part of our NFL Barometer series.
In this week's edition, we'll look at a number of young players in the midst of individual breakouts, as well as a few players who are reappearing on this list, whose seasons have taken some unexpected turns. You'll notice the Green Bay Packers are heavily represented, as their offense could be undergoing some significant changes.
RISING
Davante Adams, WR, GB
Adams has already appeared once here, and the trust that appeared to be emerging between he and Aaron Rodgers could now be at a point that'll make Adams a weekly fantasy option. He's now scored five touchdowns over the five games he's played from beginning to end, and after catching 13 passes for 132 yards and two scores against the Bears, it's difficult to think that he won't see an increased target share going forward. Regardless, he's already had seven or more targets in four different games, and he's caught 22 of the last 29 passes thrown his way. It's clearly time to move on from last year's disappointing showing and look at Adams as a quality fantasy commodity.
Michael Thomas, WR, NO
Even though he's been productive since the first game of the season, he's clearly becoming more comfortable in the Saints' offense, and it's possible that he could continue to see improvement as the season continues. Although he didn't score for the first time in four weeks against the Chiefs, he set career highs with 10 receptions and 130 yards, marking the first time he's had
In this week's edition, we'll look at a number of young players in the midst of individual breakouts, as well as a few players who are reappearing on this list, whose seasons have taken some unexpected turns. You'll notice the Green Bay Packers are heavily represented, as their offense could be undergoing some significant changes.
RISING
Davante Adams, WR, GB
Adams has already appeared once here, and the trust that appeared to be emerging between he and Aaron Rodgers could now be at a point that'll make Adams a weekly fantasy option. He's now scored five touchdowns over the five games he's played from beginning to end, and after catching 13 passes for 132 yards and two scores against the Bears, it's difficult to think that he won't see an increased target share going forward. Regardless, he's already had seven or more targets in four different games, and he's caught 22 of the last 29 passes thrown his way. It's clearly time to move on from last year's disappointing showing and look at Adams as a quality fantasy commodity.
Michael Thomas, WR, NO
Even though he's been productive since the first game of the season, he's clearly becoming more comfortable in the Saints' offense, and it's possible that he could continue to see improvement as the season continues. Although he didn't score for the first time in four weeks against the Chiefs, he set career highs with 10 receptions and 130 yards, marking the first time he's had more than 78 receiving yards in a game. After seeing just 11 targets over his first two games, he's now averaged 9.5 over his last four contests, so there's nothing fluky about his production. In addition, with all the weapons on the Saints, there's no defense that'll be able to pay extra special attention to him. It's likely that his current fantasy owner drafted him to be a bench option, and although his price tag might be high, he's definitely a player to pursue in trade.
Jay Ajayi, RB, MIA
Sometimes the obvious guy has to be listed, but after rushing for at least 204 yards in each of the last two games, Ajayi is somebody who came absolutely out of nowhere to become the newest fantasy superstar-- at least for now. First off, there's obviously no way that he'll be able sustain anywhere near this type of production going forward, as players who average 126 yards per game find themselves on a 2,000 yard rushing pace. Just that knowledge alone makes him the ultimate sell-high candidate, as every league certainly will have at least one owner who'll completely overreact to short-term success like this. The first thing he'll have to deal with is that opposing defenses will now begin to game plan with the primary goal of stopping him each week, but natural regression will also be a reality. The bottom line is that Ajayi will likely be a very good player the rest of the way, but his value is unlikely to ever be higher than it is right now, so owners will have to decide whether to ride the wave or cash in for a potential bonanza.
Tyrell Williams, WR, SD
Predictably, Williams was shut down by the Broncos in Week 6, but he's otherwise becoming a solid producer as a full-time outside receiver in a pass-heavy Chargers offense. On the season, he's posted at least 61 receiving yards in five different matchups, and he's had at least 117 yards in two of his last three games. In addition, he's had at least eight targets three times after Week 2, and he's just the type of big-frame receiver that Philip Rivers has had consistent success with over his long career. The second-year pro may well be on his way to a big second half, as he continues to improve his chemistry with Rivers. Also, the fact that he's yet to be a strong producer in consecutive weeks may make him a player who can be acquired at a reasonable value in a trade.
CHECK STATUS
Martellus Bennett, TE, NE
Despite having three huge fantasy games over the first five weeks of the season, Bennett's usage is becoming a bit worrisome as he was on the field for just 30 plays against the Steelers, and he's seen his snap percentage drop in each of the last five contests. In addition, he's caught just six passes for 53 yards over his last two matchups, and it's starting to look as if he could become a week-to-week proposition as a viable option in the Patriots' offense. In addition, he's averaging just five targets per game, and it's difficult to carve out consistent fantasy value with such low volume. His ability to be a big factor in the red zone along with his capability of making a big play at any time can translate to success, but be prepared for the volatility he'll bring to fantasy lineups.
Jack Doyle, TE, IND
At least until Dwayne Allen returns from his ankle injury, Doyle looks like he'll be a weekly lineup option with intriguing upside, primarily because he'll be the only huge target for Andrew Luck to look to in the red zone. He already has four touchdowns on the year, two of which came since Allen's been out of the lineup during the last two contests. He also tends to make the most out of his chances, as he's caught 29 of the 33 targets he's seen this year, and he seems to be quickly earning the trust of his quarterback. In addition, the Colts' defense typically ensures that the offense will be in pass-heavy mode in just about every game. Consider him an excellent injury or bye-week replacement until the Colts have to put him back into a secondary role.
Ty Montgomery, WR, GB
Even though the Packers recently signed Knile Davis to help address their depleted running back corps, they may have stumbled upon an offensive change that could get their inconsistent offense back on track. Aaron Rodgers had one of his best games in quite a while, largely in part to Montgomery being used as a dual-threat option out of the backfield. Should the coaching staff decide to keep rolling with this offensive approach, Montgomery could end up being a solid weekly starter, especially in point-per-reception leagues. He's had 10 receptions in each of the last two games along with nine rushing attempts last week, and he's combined for over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of those matchups. There's no guarantee that the team will continue to use him in this hybrid role, but he's worth adding to fantasy rosters in case they do.
Golden Tate, WR, DET
Tate found himself in the falling column of this article after posting just 134 receiving yards without finding the end zone over the first five weeks of the season, and he was clearly a player who deserved to be released from most fantasy rosters. However, since the Lions suffered injuries to Eric Ebron and Theo Riddick, the former Seahawk has blown up in the last two games with 258 yards and a touchdown. In addition, after seeing just 15 targets over his previous three contests, 22 passes have been fired his way in his two-game revival, which is twice as many as Marvin Jones. It's difficult to tell whether Tate will continue to see the same volume of work once the Lions' passing options return to health, but for now, he's reestablished himself as a productive fantasy option.
FALLING
Jordy Nelson, WR, GB
The fact that he scored five touchdowns in Green Bay's first four games shows that he's still an excellent red-zone option, but he's clearly not the player he was when he last played in 2014. He's yet to have more than six receptions in any game, and he's only posted more than 73 receiving yards a single time in 2016. With Davante Adams emerging as another reliable option for Aaron Rodgers, the quarterback will no longer feel compelled to force-feed targets to Nelson, which will lower his weekly upside. Since his overall numbers are still strong, it's possible he still has trade value that's higher than his fantasy value, so don't be afraid to offer him in a deal if it improves your roster.
Brandon Marshall, WR, NYJ
Although Marshall is posting overall numbers that are certainly acceptable, the current state of the Jets' passing attack is in freefall, and it's finally appearing to affect his production. Although he was productive in the first two games since Eric Decker was shut down for the year, the predictability of the offense will allow defenses to spend more attention than ever bracketing Marshall when they're not assigning a shutdown cornerback to him. In addition, the quarterback play has been absolutely brutal, making it difficult to think that he turn around his anywhere on the horizon, and even though Ryan Fitzpatrick will pepper him with targets, his accuracy has been a major issue. In his last two games, he's caught just three passes in each contest, and he's now caught four of fewer passes in five different games this season. His perceived value is still likely to be high, so he's a player that fantasy owners should consider shopping around.
DeVante Parker, WR, MIA
Parker actually had a decent start to the season, as he had 157 yards and a touchdown over his first two contests. Unfortunately, the bottom has completely fallen out since then, and he's failed to reach 30 receiving yards in three of his last four matchups. In addition, he's averaging just four targets per game since Week 3, so his potential for upside is almost nonexistent. It also doesn't help that Ryan Tannehill simply isn't getting it done in terms of being an effective NFL quarterback. For those in need of a valuable roster spot, he's a player to consider dropping in all but the deepest of leagues.
Cameron Meredith, WR, CHI
After breaking out with 243 yards and a touchdown over the previous two weeks, the injury to quarterback Brian Hoyer will likely put a quick end to the magic that Meredith provided his fantasy owners. The Bears seem ready to turn back to Jay Cutler at quarterback, though the Bears passing attack won't likely be nearly as productive as it was with Hoyer under center. Since Cutler's thumb injury magically became healed once Hoyer broke his arm, it's unlikely that a potentially disgruntled Cutler will be an uplifting spark to the offense. It's quite possible that Meredith's recent success will have some fantasy owners extremely high in regards to his future production, so he's a player to aggressively shop around.
