This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week, two big favorites went down, the Packers and (unfortunately) the Vikings which were my pick. Normally, I don't go into major detail when I lose - it is what it is, and it doesn't matter why, but I wrote about this one in my blog because it was such a brutal end-game sequence.
Here's the blow by blow if you're curious. Otherwise, skip down to the table.
I had the Vikings in Survivor, and while I've been knocked out on more dramatic and improbable final plays before, the entire end-game sequence had to be my most brutal exit of all time. The Vikings were down 10-3 at the half, and after stalling again on offense early in the third quarter, finally punched in a score with four minutes left in the period. But kicker Blair Walsh missed the extra point, so the Vikings were still trailing 10-9. The Vikings drove down again into field-goal range early in the fourth quarter, but Walsh's 46-yard attempt was not only blocked but returned for 32 yards, setting up a 52 yard attempt for Matt Prater, which he made, to make it 13-9. The Vikings drove down again to the Lions six-yard line to bring up a third-and-two (with eight minutes left), but got stuffed twice, turning the ball over on downs.
The Vikings got the ball back again with 4:14 left, drove the length of the field and found themselves 3rd-and-goal from the one-yard line with 40
Last week, two big favorites went down, the Packers and (unfortunately) the Vikings which were my pick. Normally, I don't go into major detail when I lose - it is what it is, and it doesn't matter why, but I wrote about this one in my blog because it was such a brutal end-game sequence.
Here's the blow by blow if you're curious. Otherwise, skip down to the table.
I had the Vikings in Survivor, and while I've been knocked out on more dramatic and improbable final plays before, the entire end-game sequence had to be my most brutal exit of all time. The Vikings were down 10-3 at the half, and after stalling again on offense early in the third quarter, finally punched in a score with four minutes left in the period. But kicker Blair Walsh missed the extra point, so the Vikings were still trailing 10-9. The Vikings drove down again into field-goal range early in the fourth quarter, but Walsh's 46-yard attempt was not only blocked but returned for 32 yards, setting up a 52 yard attempt for Matt Prater, which he made, to make it 13-9. The Vikings drove down again to the Lions six-yard line to bring up a third-and-two (with eight minutes left), but got stuffed twice, turning the ball over on downs.
The Vikings got the ball back again with 4:14 left, drove the length of the field and found themselves 3rd-and-goal from the one-yard line with 40 seconds left, two time outs, the clock running and Detroit with no time outs. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer let the clock run a bit, but called a timeout with 27 seconds left. Barring a penalty the Vikings had two plays, and a timeout left to stop the clock in between, so they needed only 10 seconds or so. If there were a penalty that set them back and another that gave them a first down without a TD, like an end-zone PI, I could see how they might have wanted some extra time. But they were running it twice, so penalties were less likely, and a defensive penalty would have extended the game for one play even if there were no time left. Bottom line, 27 seconds was too much, and Zimmer should have at least let it run down to 15 or 20.
As a result, after the Vikings scored on the third-down play and got a touchback on the kickoff, there were 23 seconds left for the Lions. On the first play, Matt Stafford completed a harmless eight-yard out to the sideline, leaving 17 seconds. Then the Vikings give up a 27-yard gain over the middle, Stafford spiked it with three seconds left and Prater hit a 58-yard field goal to send it to overtime. In overtime, the Vikings lost the coin toss, the Lions got the ball and converted a 3rd-and-8, a 3rd-and-10 and a 3rd-and-8 (on the final TD) to win it.
Had Walsh made the PAT or the FG, the blocked FG not been returned 32 yards, the Vikings made the first down on 3rd or 4th down, Zimmer called timeout 10 seconds later, Stafford not completed a 27-yard pass with three seconds left, not gotten up the field to spike it in time, Prater not hit a 58-yarder (his second of 50-plus kick of the game), the Lions not won the toss, or the Lions not converted three third-and-longs on the overtime drive, I might still be alive today.
On to this week's slate. First, you can see I added a few extra columns on the table - I'm experimenting with automating the math. These numbers are based on a hypothetical $10 entry and 100 people left, and I think the overall calculation is correct with the highest number in the far right column being the best choice (according to Vegas and the "polling data" - which from last night we see can be unreliable.) If anyone spots something amiss, let me know.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss | Total losses | Remaining | Equity | Equity*W% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Browns | 47.60% | 450 | 81.82% | 8.65 | 9.08 | 90.92 | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| CARDINALS | 49ers | 40.50% | 775 | 88.57% | 4.63 | 13.11 | 86.89 | 11.51 | 10.19 |
| CHARGERS | Dolphins | 4.30% | 185 | 64.91% | 1.51 | 16.23 | 83.77 | 11.94 | 7.75 |
| PATRIOTS | Seahawks | 2.10% | 320 | 76.19% | 0.50 | 17.23 | 82.77 | 12.08 | 9.21 |
| PANTHERS | Chiefs | 0.90% | 150 | 60.00% | 0.36 | 17.37 | 82.63 | 12.10 | 7.26 |
| Texans | Jaguars | 0.70% | 115 | 53.49% | 0.33 | 17.41 | 82.59 | 12.11 | 6.48 |
| Packers | TITANS | 0.70% | 130 | 56.52% | 0.30 | 17.43 | 82.57 | 12.11 | 6.85 |
| BUCCANEERS | Bears | 0.60% | 100 | 50.00% | 0.30 | 17.43 | 82.57 | 12.11 | 6.06 |
| GIANTS | Bengals | 0.60% | 130 | 56.52% | 0.26 | 17.47 | 82.53 | 12.12 | 6.85 |
| REDSKINS | Vikings | 0.50% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.21 | 17.53 | 82.47 | 12.13 | 7.07 |
| JETS | Rams | 0.50% | 115 | 53.49% | 0.23 | 17.50 | 82.50 | 12.12 | 6.48 |
| Falcons | EAGLES | 0.30% | 100 | 50.00% | 0.15 | 17.58 | 82.42 | 12.13 | 6.07 |
| SAINTS | Broncos | 0.20% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.09 | 17.64 | 82.36 | 12.14 | 6.62 |
| STEELERS | Cowboys | 0.10% | 130 | 56.52% | 0.04 | 17.69 | 82.31 | 12.15 | 6.87 |
| Bears | BUCCANEERS | 0.10% | 100 | 50.00% | 0.05 | 17.68 | 82.32 | 12.15 | 6.07 |
| Cowboys | STEELERS | 0.10% | 77 | 43.50% | 0.06 | 17.68 | 82.32 | 12.15 | 5.28 |
| Chiefs | PANTHERS | 0.10% | 67 | 40.12% | 0.06 | 17.67 | 82.33 | 12.15 | 4.87 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Nearly everyone is on either the Cardinals or Ravens. While high ownership is a negative, it can be counterbalanced by a high likelihood of winning. Looking at the numbers, in the Cardinals case, that works, but in the Ravens' they're actually the third best pick, behind the Patriots.
My Picks
1. Arizona Cardinals
A home game against the Niners is as good as it gets, and David Johnson gets to run roughshod over the league's worst run defense. I give the Cardinals a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. Baltimore Ravens
The numbers have them slightly below the Patriots, but after seeing a healthy Russell Wilson last week, I'm less bullish on New England than Vegas is. While the short week adds some volatility to this game, that usually hurts the road team, and the Browns are already a disaster on both sides of the ball. I give the Ravens an 83 percent chance to win this game.
3. New England Patriots
The numbers rank them second, but a healthy Russell Wilson is dangerous, especially with Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham at full speed and playing well. The Patriots are tough at home, though. I give New England a 75 percent chance to win this game.
4. San Diego Chargers
The Dolphins have played better of late, fueled by the play of running back Jay Ajayi, but San Diego has been a different team since Joey Bosa got up to full speed, and Melvin Gordon has played like and All-Pro of late. I give the Chargers a 67 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: None
