This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week wasn't particularly eventful with the Cardinals hanging on to beat the Niners and the Ravens winning easily on Thursday night. The Patriots and Chargers lost, but together they comprised less than 15 percent of the remaining entries.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss | Total losses | Remaining | Equity | Equity*Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIANTS | Bears | 27.90% | 250 | 71.43% | 7.97 | 16.35 | 83.65 | 11.95 | 8.54 |
| Steelers | BROWNS | 23.30% | 385 | 79.38% | 4.80 | 19.52 | 80.48 | 12.42 | 9.86 |
| LIONS | Jaguars | 17.70% | 275 | 73.33% | 4.72 | 19.60 | 80.40 | 12.44 | 9.12 |
| Patriots | 49ERS | 10.10% | 775 | 88.57% | 1.15 | 23.17 | 76.83 | 13.02 | 11.53 |
| CHIEFS | Buccaneers | 8.30% | 320 | 76.19% | 1.98 | 22.34 | 77.66 | 12.88 | 9.81 |
| Raiders*** | Texans | 4.60% | 240 | 70.59% | 1.35 | 22.97 | 77.03 | 12.98 | 9.16 |
| COWBOYS | Ravens | 4.50% | 300 | 75.00% | 1.13 | 23.20 | 76.80 | 13.02 | 9.77 |
| SEAHAWKS | Eagles | 2.30% | 240 | 70.59% | 0.68 | 23.64 | 76.36 | 13.10 | 9.24 |
| PANTHERS | Saints | 0.40% | 175 | 63.64% | 0.15 | 24.18 | 75.82 | 13.19 | 8.39 |
| COLTS | Titans | 0.20% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.08 | 24.24 | 75.76 | 13.20 | 7.70 |
| Dolphins | RAMS | 0.10% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.05 | 24.27 | 75.73 | 13.21 | 6.92 |
| RAMS | Dolphins | 0.10% | 90 | 47.37% | 0.05 | 24.27 | 75.73 | 13.20 | 6.25 |
| BROWNS | Steelers | 0.10% | 26 | 20.63% | 0.08 | 24.24 | 75.76 | 13.20 | 2.72 |
| Cardinals | VIKINGS | 0.10% | 100 | 50.00% | 0.05 | 24.27 | 75.73 | 13.20 | 6.60 |
| REDSKINS | Packers | 0.10% | 135 | 57.45% | 0.04 | 24.28 | 75.72 | 13.21 | 7.59 |
| BENGALS | Bills | 0.10% | 155 | 60.78% | 0.04 | 24.28 | 75.72 | 13.21 | 8.03 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** In Mexico City
There are a lot of
Last week wasn't particularly eventful with the Cardinals hanging on to beat the Niners and the Ravens winning easily on Thursday night. The Patriots and Chargers lost, but together they comprised less than 15 percent of the remaining entries.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss | Total losses | Remaining | Equity | Equity*Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIANTS | Bears | 27.90% | 250 | 71.43% | 7.97 | 16.35 | 83.65 | 11.95 | 8.54 |
| Steelers | BROWNS | 23.30% | 385 | 79.38% | 4.80 | 19.52 | 80.48 | 12.42 | 9.86 |
| LIONS | Jaguars | 17.70% | 275 | 73.33% | 4.72 | 19.60 | 80.40 | 12.44 | 9.12 |
| Patriots | 49ERS | 10.10% | 775 | 88.57% | 1.15 | 23.17 | 76.83 | 13.02 | 11.53 |
| CHIEFS | Buccaneers | 8.30% | 320 | 76.19% | 1.98 | 22.34 | 77.66 | 12.88 | 9.81 |
| Raiders*** | Texans | 4.60% | 240 | 70.59% | 1.35 | 22.97 | 77.03 | 12.98 | 9.16 |
| COWBOYS | Ravens | 4.50% | 300 | 75.00% | 1.13 | 23.20 | 76.80 | 13.02 | 9.77 |
| SEAHAWKS | Eagles | 2.30% | 240 | 70.59% | 0.68 | 23.64 | 76.36 | 13.10 | 9.24 |
| PANTHERS | Saints | 0.40% | 175 | 63.64% | 0.15 | 24.18 | 75.82 | 13.19 | 8.39 |
| COLTS | Titans | 0.20% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.08 | 24.24 | 75.76 | 13.20 | 7.70 |
| Dolphins | RAMS | 0.10% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.05 | 24.27 | 75.73 | 13.21 | 6.92 |
| RAMS | Dolphins | 0.10% | 90 | 47.37% | 0.05 | 24.27 | 75.73 | 13.20 | 6.25 |
| BROWNS | Steelers | 0.10% | 26 | 20.63% | 0.08 | 24.24 | 75.76 | 13.20 | 2.72 |
| Cardinals | VIKINGS | 0.10% | 100 | 50.00% | 0.05 | 24.27 | 75.73 | 13.20 | 6.60 |
| REDSKINS | Packers | 0.10% | 135 | 57.45% | 0.04 | 24.28 | 75.72 | 13.21 | 7.59 |
| BENGALS | Bills | 0.10% | 155 | 60.78% | 0.04 | 24.28 | 75.72 | 13.21 | 8.03 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** In Mexico City
There are a lot of good choices this week, especially with only the Giants and Steelers being more than 20 percent owned. Of course, lots of these choices have been used up by most people still around in your pools.
The Vegas/ownership numbers like the Patriots, Steelers, Chiefs, Cowboys, Seahawks, Raiders and Lions - in that order.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
You probably don't have them available, but if you do they're an easy choice against the 49ers, even in San Francisco. I give them an 87 percent chance to win this game.
2. Seattle Seahawks
Another team probably in short supply, but with Russell Wilson healthy and playing at home, I see them winning easily over the Eagles and rookie QB Carson Wentz. I give the Seahawks a 79 percent chance to win this game.
3. Dallas Cowboys
The Ravens are well coached but likely to be overmatched on the road by Dallas' road-grating offensive line and solid QB play. I give the Cowboys a 79 percent chance to win this game.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have struggled offensively of late, but at home against a beatable Bucs defense, I think they'll get back on track. Moreover, the KC defense should give Tampa plenty of problems. I give the Chiefs a 77 percent chance to win this game.
5. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders have played better defensively of late, and that's a problem for one of the league's worst offenses, even if this is on a neutral site. I give the Raiders a 73 percent chance to win this game.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
I don't especially trust the Steelers on the road, and they're the second most owned team, but it helps that the opponent is the Browns. I give the Steelers a 70 percent chance to win this game.
7. New York Giants
The Giants are the highest-owned team but they should handle the Bears at home. The issue is Ben McAdoo relying too much on the run game and not keeping his foot on the gas if the Giants get a lead. I give New York a 70 percent chance to win this game.
8. Detroit Lions
The Jaguars are bad, but Detroit is not a team on which you want to count if the Jaguars are making their usual fourth-quarter run. I give the Lions a 65 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: None
