This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss | Total losses | Remaining | Equity | Equity*Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | BROWNS | 25.10% | 290 | 74.36% | 6.44 | 18.57 | 81.43 | 12.28 | 9.13 |
| SAINTS | Rams | 24.20% | 305 | 75.31% | 5.98 | 19.03 | 80.97 | 12.35 | 9.30 |
| BILLS | Jaguars | 18.10% | 310 | 75.61% | 4.41 | 20.59 | 79.41 | 12.59 | 9.52 |
| DOLPHINS | 49ers | 14.60% | 330 | 76.74% | 3.40 | 21.61 | 78.39 | 12.76 | 9.79 |
| Steelers | COLTS | 4.60% | 355 | 78.02% | 1.01 | 24.00 | 76.00 | 13.16 | 10.27 |
| COWBOYS | Redskins | 4.10% | 300 | 75.00% | 1.03 | 23.98 | 76.02 | 13.15 | 9.87 |
| Patriots | JETS | 2.90% | 375 | 78.95% | 0.61 | 24.40 | 75.60 | 13.23 | 10.44 |
| Titans | BEARS | 1.80% | 210 | 67.74% | 0.58 | 24.43 | 75.57 | 13.23 | 8.96 |
| Seahawks | BUCCANEERS | 1.60% | 230 | 69.70% | 0.48 | 24.52 | 75.48 | 13.25 | 9.23 |
| FALCONS | Cardinals | 0.80% | 205 | 67.21% | 0.26 | 24.75 | 75.25 | 13.29 | 8.93 |
| RAVENS | Bengals | 0.80% | 200 | 66.67% | 0.27 | 24.74 | 75.26 | 13.29 | 8.86 |
| EAGLES | Packers | 0.50% | 185 | 64.91% | 0.18 | 24.83 | 75.17 | 13.30 | 8.64 |
| RAIDERS | Panthers | 0.40% | 165 | 62.26% | 0.15 | 24.86 | 75.14 | 13.31 | 8.29 |
| BRONCOS | Chiefs | 0.20% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.08 | 24.93 | 75.07 | 13.32 | 8.20 |
| LIONS | Vikings | 0.20% | 125 | 55.56% | 0.09 | 24.92 | 75.08 | 13.32 | 7.40 |
| TEXANS | Chargers | 0.10% | 88 | 46.81% | 0.05 | 24.95 | 75.05 | 13.33 | 6.24 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
According to the polling data/Vegas, the Patriots are again the top choice, narrowly followed by the Steelers. After that it's, the
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss | Total losses | Remaining | Equity | Equity*Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | BROWNS | 25.10% | 290 | 74.36% | 6.44 | 18.57 | 81.43 | 12.28 | 9.13 |
| SAINTS | Rams | 24.20% | 305 | 75.31% | 5.98 | 19.03 | 80.97 | 12.35 | 9.30 |
| BILLS | Jaguars | 18.10% | 310 | 75.61% | 4.41 | 20.59 | 79.41 | 12.59 | 9.52 |
| DOLPHINS | 49ers | 14.60% | 330 | 76.74% | 3.40 | 21.61 | 78.39 | 12.76 | 9.79 |
| Steelers | COLTS | 4.60% | 355 | 78.02% | 1.01 | 24.00 | 76.00 | 13.16 | 10.27 |
| COWBOYS | Redskins | 4.10% | 300 | 75.00% | 1.03 | 23.98 | 76.02 | 13.15 | 9.87 |
| Patriots | JETS | 2.90% | 375 | 78.95% | 0.61 | 24.40 | 75.60 | 13.23 | 10.44 |
| Titans | BEARS | 1.80% | 210 | 67.74% | 0.58 | 24.43 | 75.57 | 13.23 | 8.96 |
| Seahawks | BUCCANEERS | 1.60% | 230 | 69.70% | 0.48 | 24.52 | 75.48 | 13.25 | 9.23 |
| FALCONS | Cardinals | 0.80% | 205 | 67.21% | 0.26 | 24.75 | 75.25 | 13.29 | 8.93 |
| RAVENS | Bengals | 0.80% | 200 | 66.67% | 0.27 | 24.74 | 75.26 | 13.29 | 8.86 |
| EAGLES | Packers | 0.50% | 185 | 64.91% | 0.18 | 24.83 | 75.17 | 13.30 | 8.64 |
| RAIDERS | Panthers | 0.40% | 165 | 62.26% | 0.15 | 24.86 | 75.14 | 13.31 | 8.29 |
| BRONCOS | Chiefs | 0.20% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.08 | 24.93 | 75.07 | 13.32 | 8.20 |
| LIONS | Vikings | 0.20% | 125 | 55.56% | 0.09 | 24.92 | 75.08 | 13.32 | 7.40 |
| TEXANS | Chargers | 0.10% | 88 | 46.81% | 0.05 | 24.95 | 75.05 | 13.33 | 6.24 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
According to the polling data/Vegas, the Patriots are again the top choice, narrowly followed by the Steelers. After that it's, the Cowboys, Dolphins, Bills, Saints, Seahawks, Giants and Titans, in that order.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
No one has them available, but if you did, this is the team I'd pick. It's a road game against a division rival, but the Jets defense isn't what it used to be, and their offense has fallen apart. I give the Patriots an 80 percent chance to win this game.
2. New Orleans Saints
Jared Goff didn't show anything last week, and the Saints, who have played better on defense of late, are typically tough at home. The only way I see the Rams winning this is if somehow Todd Gurley, for the first time all year, goes crazy, something that could happen, but is unlikely. I give the Saints a 77 percent chance to win this game.
3. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are a physically tough team on both sides of the ball, and they should get after Blake Bortles and force him into some mistakes. The Jaguars can strike for big plays, but usually it's in the service of a backdoor cover, not a win. I give the Bills a 75 percent chance to win this game.
4. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins should crush the 49ers, but they're dealing with injuries to three of their starting offensive linemen, and the 49ers have played better of late. Still, the Dolphins defense has stepped up and should give San Francisco problems in Miami. I give the Dolphins a 74 percent chance to win this game.
5. New York Giants
It's revolting how Ben McAdoo takes his foot off the gas whenever the Giants get even a slim lead, but the talent disparity between these two teams is vast. I give the Giants a 74 percent chance to win this game.
6. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are a solid team on both sides of the ball, and while they're on the road, they face a Bears team missing its top receiver, top tight end and top two starting QBs. I give the Titans a 72 percent chance to win this game.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas likes the Steelers quite a bit more than I do. While they get to face Scott Tolzien, it's a road game, and Ben Roethlisberger has struggled away from Heinz Field since 2014. Moreover, the Colts defense hasn't been terrible of late. I give the Steelers a 72 percent chance to win this game.
8. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are one of the best teams in the league, but this is a tough Washington team that knows them well and has the weapons to attack their decent, but not spectacular defense. I give the Cowboys a 71 percent chance to win this game.
9. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are on the road against a resurgent Bucs team, but Seattle might be the best team in the NFL now that Russell Wilson is healthy again. I give the Seahawks a 69 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Atlanta Falcons - I think Atlanta is the better team, but their defense is vulnerable, and the Cardinals have the talent - in theory - to exploit it.
Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens defense is solid, but I don't think the offense is consistent enough to trust against a division rival that's not a doormat.
