This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defense To Avoid
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks: The Mavs continue to struggle offensively, going over the 100-point mark only once in the last 15 games and only twice on the season overall. They're also still scoring the fewest points (91.5) per contest. Dallas will be without Dirk Nowitzki (Achilles) again Wednesday, and could well run into a buzz saw in the form of a Spurs squad that's coming off a 95-83 loss to the Magic on Tuesday and that gives up the sixth-fewest points (98.4) per game.
Offense To Use
Indiana Pacers at Portland Trail Blazers: The Hawks are a contender for this designation as well, considering their matchup against a porous Suns defense, but I'll give the nod to a Pacers unit that's averaged 103.5 points per game and is coming in refreshed, having last played Sunday. They're also shooting a solid 45.3 percent, and although they'll be without Paul George (ankle), they put up 118 points without him against the Nets just two games ago. Now, they draw the team that's behind only Brooklyn for most points given up per game (113.7), and that also surrenders the fourth-highest field-goal percentage (46.0).
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set:
First game of a back-to-back: Heat, Grizzlies, Mavs
Second game of a back-to-back: Pistons, Lakers, Spurs
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
John Wall, WAS at OKC ($9,300): Wall comes at a significant discount over the man he'll often face off against, Russell Westbrook ($12,000), yet he's flashed a ceiling befitting of a five-figure salary on multiple occasions this season. Wall has scored 50 to 60.5 fantasy points in four of the last five games and is averaging 46.7 fantasy points over four road games as well. The Thunder have also given up the seventh-most fantasy points (57.1) to point guards, and are a bottom-five squad in terms of rebounds, assists, steals and three-pointers allowed per game to the position. Furthermore, Wall sports a team-high 33.2 percent usage rate, essentially guaranteeing a ton of involvement in what should be a back-and-forth affair.
Derrick Rose, NY at MIN ($6,500):Goran Dragic ($6,800) also makes for an appealing and likely under-owned play in the mid-tier level, but Rose's recent tear and the fact that he's $300 cheaper gets him the nod. The veteran point guard has turned back the clock in New York, and he's averaged 36.9 fantasy points over the last five contests. He's been better on the road than at home as well, averaging 33.5 fantasy points and 18.3 actual points over seven games away from Madison Square Garden. Rose has also been over 40 fantasy points in his last pair of games, and the T-Wolves give up 54 fantasy points per game over the last 10 to point guards, while also ranking in the bottom 10 in terms of rebounds (6.6), assists (7.8) and shooting percentage (44.0) allowed to the position.
Ty Lawson, SAC at PHI ($3,900): Lawson shapes up as a sneaky underpriced play for those looking to save some cash at guard Wednesday. He's scored 20 to 25.5 fantasy points over the last four games and has continued logging solid minutes of the bench behind Darren Collison, averaging 23.3 minutes over the last five contests overall. He'll draw a nice matchup against the Sixers, who have given up the sixth-most fantasy points (59.5) to point guards over the last 10 games, along with the fifth-most points (24.1) and fourth-highest shooting percentage (45.7) per game to the position on the season.
Jimmy Butler, CHI vs. LAL ($9,000): Butler is one my favorite plays of the night despite his elevated price tag. He gets a Lakers squad that's on the second game of a back-to-back and that's surrendered the second-most fantasy points (47.1), third-most points (22.8), third-most assists (4.2), second-most steals (2.3) and highest shooting percentage (51.8) to small forwards this season. They've been trending downward over the last 10 games as well, as they've given up the most fantasy points (53.6) to the position over that span. Butler is just the player to exploit that glaring weakness further, given the fact that he sports a team-high usage rate of 29.3 percent while also averaging 46.7 fantasy points over the last four games, a stretch that includes a pair of outings with over 50 fantasy points.
Thaddeus Young, IND at POR ($5,700): Young makes for a strong mid-tier play at forward, factoring in his matchup against a Trail Blazers defense that's been the worst in the league against power forwards. They've surrendered a league-high 55.8 fantasy points, 25.1 actual points, 2.1 blocks and 2.3 three-pointers per game to power forwards, along with a 51 percent success rate from the field that ranks behind only the Timberwolves. Young's arrow has been pointing up as well, as he's averaged 27.8 fantasy points over the last five games while shooting 54.7 percent from the field and 40.0 percent from three-point range.
Marcus Morris, DET at BOS ($4,600): For those needing to go under $4K at forward, Terrence Ross ($3,800) also makes for a solid value play in this spot. However, the resurgent Morris gets the call as a rare starter with 30-fantasy point upside that's priced well under $5K and in a favorable matchup. Morris went through a tough stretch earlier in November where he tallied just seven points apiece in four of six games, but he's bounced back with three straight double-digit scoring performances and has eclipsed 20 fantasy points in three of the last four contests. He thrived in his one previous meeting against the Celtics this season back on Nov. 19, posting a season-high 34.75 fantasy points, and Boston checks in giving up the fourth-most fantasy points (46.7), second-most points (23.0), fifth-most assists (3.9) and second-highest field goal percentage (47.7) to small forwards this season.
DeMarcus Cousins, SAC at PHI ($10,800): Despite playing with a broken middle finger on his shooting hand, Cousins is still mowing through anyone put in front of him, averaging a whopping 58.3 fantasy points over the last five games, a stretch that's included an impressive 51.6 percent success rate from three-point range, as well as respective tallies of 66.75 and 72.5 fantasy points in the last pair of contests. The Sixers give up a healthy 46.0 fantasy points per game to power forwards, along with the fourth-most three pointers (1.7) to the position as well. They're even more vulnerable against centers, where Cousins also figures to see some time, as Philadelphia ranks as the most generous defense against fives in terms of fantasy points (52.5), points (23.2), blocks (2.9) and shooting percentage (58.1) allowed per game.
Joel Embiid, PHI vs. SAC ($6,500): On the other side of the Kings-Sixers battle is Embiid, who's been one of the most efficient fantasy point producers in the league. Despite playing no more than 27 minutes in any game, Embiid's team-high 39.1 percent usage rate has enabled him to average 35.0 fantasy points, a figure that's jumped up to 40.0 over the last four contests. His floor has actually been 25.0 fantasy points, and he's been over 30.0 fantasy points in all but two contests. He should find a willing facilitator for more of the same in Sacramento, which has given up the fourth-most fantasy points (45.6) and fourth-highest shooting percentage (56.0) to centers.
Tarik Black, LAL at CHI ($3,200): Both Black and teammate Timofey Mozgov ($3,300) actually make for viable options in this spot. Black has been consistent throughout the season, and logged a healthy 24 minutes Tuesday, despite the return of Julius Randle to the lineup. He's been efficient even when receiving less playing time, as he's scored over 20 fantasy points twice and between 16.0 and 18.75 fantasy points in six other contests. Those are relatively modest outputs, but represent fine returns on a price that's just $200 removed from minimum. The Bulls also check in as a welcoming target for Black, as they've given up the ninth-most fantasy points (44.2) to power forwards over the last five, along with the seventh-most fantasy points (47.7) to centers on the season, the two positions Black figures to see time in.
INJURY REPORT
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