This article is part of our The Z Files series.
We talk a lot about drafts this time of the year without much auction discussion. Mocks are generally drafts, with the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) filling Draft Championship (DC) and Cutline leagues every night. However, the NFBC also runs 15-team satellite auction leagues. So far there have been four, while I participated in a private auction using the same format. I culled together an average auction value (AAV) from those five auctions. Today's episode of the Z Files will focus on some of my observations.
Before diving in, let's get on the same page with respect to the data. It's five auctions, held before the Super Bowl. Conclusions can't be drawn from auctions in March. They all comprised the initial phase of a DC league, where 27 reserves are drafted afterwards and no pickups are allowed in-season. There are strategies and trends unique to this draft-and-hold competition. Still, I've been doing this long enough to cherry-pick interesting results. Maybe they result in some edges down the line, or maybe they're just column fodder before pitchers and catchers report.
Clayton Kershaw: ADP versus AAV
This is a trend I've seen previously, so there's something to this. In the NFBC average draft position (ADP), Kershaw places sixth, whereas by AAV he's the most expensive player overall.
In a draft, you're sacrificing your first-round pick to take Kershaw. Whether it's worth it or not is a discussion for another day. Spoiler alert: it is. In an auction, you can still purchase high-priced hitters, so long as you're willing to be active in the end game. For example, one of the Kershaw owners also purchased Manny Machado, Joey Votto and Johnny Cueto. Another snagged Edwin Encarnacion and Jonathan Villar. To be honest, I regret not buying Kershaw. As will be discussed later, the end game is flush with pieces that can fill in your roster and produce a competitive offense.
If not Kershaw, then Max Scherzer or Madison Bumgarner
Forget what your cheat sheet might say in terms of bid prices. Relative to the market, Scherzer and Bumgarner are better deals than the rest of the top tier or the second tier. That is, if I pass on Kershaw, I'd rather pay the $33-$36 to secure one of those two as my ace than hope Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, Noah Syndergaard or Corey Kluber come in at a price closer to my cheat sheet, because they won't.
What about waiting for the next tier and buying multiple arms?
To reiterate, a lot can change between now and March, so take these names with the appropriate grain of salt. I didn't have this AAV data at the time of my auction so I played the waiting game, hoping for Chris Archer, Carlos Carrasco or even Carlos Martinez to land at a more palatable price. I chose poorly. Seven hurlers were cited above. Of the next 23 starters (essentially comprising the SP1 and SP2 tiers), 13 came in at a price close to or better than their market value according to ADP: Rick Porcello, Kyle Hendricks, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, Julio Teheran, Jacob deGrom, Stephen Strasburg, Danny Salazar, Aaron Sanchez, Cole Hamels, Justin Verlander, Masahiro Tanaka and Zack Greinke. These are in order of best deal relative to market value.
Keep in mind, one of the above is going to anchor your staff. What's missing? Other than perhaps Verlander, no one will give you the whiffs necessary to really compete in the category, without some good fortune with later picks and clever streaming. Well, getting high-strikeout closers can also help. The three top values (Porcello, Hendricks and Maeda) not only carry pedestrian strikeout rates, they are all regression candidates. Hill, deGrom, Strasburg and to a lesser extent Salazar and Tanaka are all injury risks. That leaves Teheran, Sanchez, Hamels and Greinke. Do any of these pass the anchor sniff test?
For the record, I bought Teheran and Salazar, plus Steven Matz and Jameson Taillon a little later. I'm warming to Matz and expect Taillon to continue to develop. As alluded to above, I spent some bucks on closers, rostering Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles, both capable of 90 punchouts from the 'pen.
Lesson learned: Buy strikeouts
Forget what they cost,. Pick out what you consider to be the safest strikeout pitchers, and pay what it takes to get at least one. Don't worry, auction dynamics will avail you some end-game hitters to bully up your counting stats.
No discount on power or speed specialists
This is another trend I discovered last season and was curious if it was just my league or more widespread. Several years back, a favorite ploy was pairing up a low average slugger like Adam Dunn with a high-batting average base stealer like Ichiro Suzuki. The reason being, you'd get the same stats from that pair than from a couple of across-the-board producers, but Dunn and Ichiro would cost a combined $10 less. The past couple of years, this is no longer the case. Keeping in mind this is not relative to their bid price but rather to their ADP, Giancarlo Stanton, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis and Khris Davis all placed closer to the top of AAV. The same was true for Dee Gordon and Jose Peraza, with Billy Hamilton landing at the same spot in both.
There was plenty of cheap power and speed available later, relative to their ADP. The prices on the top 30 percent of the pool tend to be inflated, then there's a bunch that are basically at value before deflation kicks in – more on this in a minute. The main point is that planning a strategy of pairing, say, Davis with Gordon to get homers and steals cheaper than buying two balanced players isn't assured to work. In fact, if you pass on all the better multi-category contributors early, waiting on the likes of Davis and Gordon, it could backfire since you're forced to pay the inflated price or run the risk of leaving money on the table.
End game is as flush as ever
Here's why I recommend paying what it takes for whiffs: there's oodles of profit potential at the end of the auction. Conventional valuation systems assign about 45 players salaries of $3 or less. On average, there were actually about 100 players costing as much as $3. I promise, you'll have a handful of players projected to earn double-digit value that cost a buck or two. The biggest mistake made in mixed league auctions is saving $20 for the end game, because there are five or six guys on the board you have priced between $5 and $10 and you want to have enough to get them. You won't need it! Often, you'll get the three you want most for $7 (or so). You can't put the extra on account or a gift certificate. It's wasted. You should have taken that $13 and turned Cole Hamels into Corey Kluber, something like that.
The final quirk of the end game that hammers home the profit potential is how many players are unique to each auction. An average of 10 players were purchased in only one league. Ten more were bought in just two or three leagues. There's going to be a slew of players on your opponents' rosters you didn't consider bid-worthy. Every one raises the projected earnings of the lowest player on your list. You're going to get someone estimated at $6 for a buck, because you're the only one that wanted him.
If you're interested in participating in an NFBC auction, check out the NFBC forum. There will likely be a couple of sign-up threads. If you're not registered, let me know in the comments and I can make sure you're added to the list. I'll be administering 12-team American League-only and National League-only auctions in March, if that's more your fancy. I may even play in a couple of them.
