This article is part of our FantasyDraft MLB series.
Baseball season is back and the folks at MLB decided to give us a little Opening Day treat. Instead of the single night game that we've become accustomed to over the past few years, we get three to start the season. There are some big names in play, but with only three games on the slate, it might be difficult to find a lot of value.
As always, early season projections can be tough to peg as we have virtually no recent history to go off of, just a bunch of meaningless spring training games. With that said, let's dive into the numbers:
PITCHER
Chris Archer, TB vs. NYY ($19,000): Options are limited with only three games, and we may be forced to choose opposing starters. Archer is a much better pitcher at home than on the road, as his ERA last season was nearly three points lower at home. Meanwhile, the Yankees fared worse than the Rays last season against right-handed pitching, ranking 21st in wOBA.
Masahiro Tanaka, NYY at TB, ($18,100): Though he's the Opening Day starter, Tanaka might be the most overlooked pitcher on the slate. While the majority will default to the biggest name in Madison Bumgarner, Tanaka will be in a much more pitcher-friendly park and facing an easier line-up against right-handed pitching. Last season, the Rays ranked 19th in the league in wOBA against righties while trailing only the Padres and Brewers in strikeouts against that handedness.
INFIELD
Anthony Rizzo, CHC at STL ($9,400): Unsurprisingly, Rizzo hits right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching. His wOBA has regressed versus lefties over the past three years, but it's a different story on the other side, as he had a career-high .404 wOBA against them last season. His home-road splits were almost identical, so there's little reason to fade Rizzo in this spot.
Paul Goldschmidt, AZ vs. SF ($9,300): The specter of facing Madison Bumgarner is a bit daunting, but even the best lefties struggled to get Goldschmidt out last season. He absolutely hammers the lefties, as his wOBA was nearly .70 points higher than it was against righties. He's an expensive option facing a solid pitcher, but he's at home facing a left, a combo that was deadly last season.
Gary Sanchez, NYY at TB ($7,500): Sanchez took the league by storm when he was called up last year, and while he cooled considerably as the season dragged on into September, he still left his mark. One situation where he really excelled was against right-handed pitching. Among all batters with at least 140 plate appearances last season, Sanchez held the highest wOBA versus righties. He is priced below the top tier, but he has the high ceiling of the guys above him.
OUTFIELD
Stephen Piscotty, STL vs. CHC ($7,700): Piscotty fares well against both lefties and righties, but he does more damage against the former. He posted an impressive .406 wOBA against left-handed pitchers last season, and though he hasn't fared all that well against Jon Lester, he's only faced him 13 times.
Kris Bryant, CHC at STL ($9,100): Another case of poor career numbers against a pitcher that should be ignored because of a small sample size, Bryant has struggled against Carlos Martinez in his career, with just three hits in 19 at-bats. However, Bryant is nearly matchup proof and, sooner or later, he's going to get to Martinez, just liked he's gotten to just about every pitcher in the league.
Hunter Pence, SF at AZ ($8,000): Zack Grienke was equally as bad against left-handed hitters as he was versus righties last season, so the team to target for stacking purposes on Sunday should be the Giants. This game has the highest total on the board, and remember, Bumgarner is on the mound for the Giants. In other words, there are a lot of runs expected and not necessarily from the Diamondbacks. Pence should be right in the middle of the lineup, which should provide plenty of opportunities. Oddly enough, Pence was actually better versus righties than lefties last year.
UTLIITY
Dexter Fowler STL vs. CHC ($7,600): Fowler's numbers last season where better when facing righties, but he recorded 12 of his 13 stolen bases with lefties on the mound, and you can bet that if he gets on base against Lester, whose struggles throwing to first base have been well documented, he'll be running. Fowler knows the tendencies of Lester as someone trying to keep runners close and Fowler can exploit that.
Eduardo Nunez, SF at AZ ($6,000): Coming in at the lower-end of the price spectrum is Nunez, who played very well for the Twins last season and finds himself in a new locale to start the season. He will likely be near the bottom of the order o start the season, but if Grienke looks like he did for much of last year, Nunez should still get plenty of opportunities to knock in runs. Nunez was better against righties last year, and he's fared well in limited at-bats against Grienke.
